Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleMcCain K, Vicco A, Morgenstern C, et al., 2026,
A systematic review and meta-analysis of Zika virus epidemiology
, Nature Health, ISSN: 3005-0693Zika virus (ZIKV), classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization, is an Aedes-borne arbovirus that can cause neurological complications and birth defects in newborns of mothers infected during pregnancy. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies reporting ZIKV epidemiological parameters, transmission models and outbreaks (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) to characterize its transmissibility, seroprevalence, risk factors, disease sequelae and natural history. We performed meta-analyses of the proportions of congenital Zika syndrome, pregnancy loss among ZIKV-infected mothers and symptomatic cases. We extracted information from 574 studies. Across 418 included studies assigned a high-quality score, we extracted 969 parameters, 127 outbreak records and 154 models. Using random-effects models, we estimated proportions of congenital Zika syndrome (4.65%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.38–6.67%), pregnancy loss (2.48%, 95% CI: 1.62–3.78%) and symptomatic cases (51.20%, 95% CI: 38.00–64.23%). Seroprevalence estimates (n = 354) were retrieved beyond South America and French Polynesia. Basic reproduction number estimates (n = 77) ranged between 1.12 and 7.4. We found 66 human epidemiological delay estimates, including the intrinsic incubation period (n = 11, range: 4–12.1 days), infectious period (n = 15, range: 3–50 days), extrinsic incubation period (n = 22, range: 5.1–24.2 days) and serial interval (n = 27, range: 7.4–32.9 days). These data are available in the R package ‘epireview’ (version 1.4.5). We provide a comprehensive systematic summary of ZIKV epidemiology, revealing large heterogeneities and inconsistencies in the reporting of parameter estimates, study designs and parameter definitions and underscoring the need for standardized epidemiological definitions.
-
Journal articleHaas O, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, 2026,
Wildfires on a changing planet
, Nature Communications, ISSN: 2041-1723The distribution of wildfires on Earth will change as climate, land-use, and vegetation change. We use global empirical models of burnt area, fire size and fire intensity to explore future wildfire trajectories under ~1.5 and 3-4 °C warming with middle of the road future socio-economic conditions. Even under ~1.5 °C warming we find a change in wildfire patterns by the end of the 21st century with reduced burning in tropical regions driven by changes in human activity but larger and more intense wildfires in extra-tropical regions driven by changes in climate and CO2. With low climate change mitigation, burnt areas increase greatly across all vegetation types, overwhelming the current global decline. These findings suggest that even with ambitious climate change mitigation, current fire-suppression policies will fail in much of the world and mitigation scenarios that rely on expanding forest areas will be unrealistic unless they are designed with wildfire risks in mind.
-
Journal articleLau KH, Toumi R, 2026,
Does vertical wind shear increase tropical cyclone rain?
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN: 0035-9009<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) rain induced by vertical wind shear (VWS) have significant implications. Using a 26‐year state‐of‐the‐art precipitation dataset, this study provides a systematic analysis of the responses of TC rain to VWS. Results reveal an unexpected VWS‐induced rain volume enhancement despite reduced TC intensity, with rain volume up to 23% higher in high‐ versus low‐shear conditions. The responses are spatially asymmetric: rainfall increases in the outer region but decreases in the inner core, and enhancements downshear generally outweigh suppressions upshear, yielding a net increase in rain production. Beyond the mean response, VWS also modifies rainfall extremes and storm structure. It reduces the maximum azimuthal mean rain rate, whereas the maximum local rain rate remains largely unchanged and even intensifies slightly in the strongest TCs. The radii of rainfall maxima expand outward with shear, and the peak local rain rate tends to converge with the azimuthal mean maximum at high shear. When adjusted by storm intensity, stronger shear enables higher rain rates, larger rain areas, and greater rain volumes for the same TC intensity. These results challenge the conventional view of shear as purely detrimental to TCs, revealing a dual role: VWS weakens winds but enhances rainfall, potentially mitigating wind damage while amplifying flood risk. This trade‐off underscores the need to account for shear‐induced hydrological impacts in TC hazard assessment and prediction.</jats:p>
-
Journal articleRoss A, Ochoa-Tocachi B, Bonnesoeur V, et al., 2026,
Quantifying and regionalizing land use impacts on catchment response times with high-frequency observations
, Water Resources Research, ISSN: 0043-1397Land use and land cover change (LUCC) can affect the hydrological response time of rivers. However, it is difficult to generate robust and quantitative evidence of this impact at the catchment scale. This lack of evidence also affects the development of rainfall-runoff models to make ex-ante predictions. Here, we analyze high-frequency observational data from a network of pairwise catchments in the tropical Andes and find a statistically significant impact of intensive land use on the hydrological response time, which can be used for regionalization. First, we isolated individual rainfall response events from 5-minute precipitation and discharge time series of 16 catchments (8 pairs). We then fitted unit hydrographs on these events to estimate the catchment response times. These response times were subsequently regionalized by, first, applying a forward stepwise regression to select statistically significant catchment characteristics including land use and land cover, then, fitting a linear mixed-effects model with the selected characteristics to account for within-site variability between pairs. We find that catchments with intensive land use have a significantly quicker response than their natural counterparts. Differences were often sub-hourly, highlighting the value of high-frequency monitoring. Forward stepwise regression identified only catchment area and intensive land use percentage as statistically significant predictors. Model coefficients show that, even when considering other catchment characteristics, increasing intensive land use percentage decreases response times. This study provides solid evidence and a robust methodology to quantify the impacts of LUCC on catchment hydrology.
-
Journal articleRoca Barcelo A, Schneider R, Pirani M, et al., 2026,
A satellite based machine learning approach for estimating high resolution daily average air temperature in a megacity in Brazil
, Scientific Reports, ISSN: 2045-2322Spatiotemporally resolved ambient temperature data are essential for environmental epidemiology, especially in urban areas where temperature can vary sharply over short distances, influencing population exposure. Additionally, heat distribution often reflects built environment patterns and may correlate with existing social and environmental disparities. Continuous temporal records at high spatial resolution are, however, often lacking, especially in low- and middle-income countries. We developed a generalizable tree-based machine learning approach to estimate daily mean temperatures at 500 x 500 metres resolution using São Paulo, a megacity in Brazil, as a case study, to demonstrate its utility in highly urbanized settingswith a heterogeneous urban fabric and unevenly distributed temperature monitoring stations. We trained a Random Forest model using open-access remote sensing data, along with derived products, and temperature measurements from 43 ground stations. To prevent overfitting and select relevant features, weemployed a forward feature selection algorithm with target-oriented (spatial) cross-validation. Hyperparameter tuning was performed using grid search approach. The model was validated through ten-fold station-based cross-validation and an external hold-out dataset. The model demonstrated strong performance (RMSERF = 0.80; R²RF = 0.95), with slightly reduced accuracy in rural areas (R²rural = 0.91; R²urban = 0.95). Compared to traditional multilinear approaches (RMSEMLR = 1.02; R²MLR = 0.92), the Random Forest model outperformed, likely due to its ability to better capture microclimates and complex relationships between data sources. This 500 x 500 metres daily temperature dataset is the first of its kind in South America, with the São Paulo pipeline and data freely accessible. The approach is adaptable to other regions with appropriate retraining and validation, enabling high-resolution exposure assessments.
-
Journal articleLiu M, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, 2026,
A global analysis of pollen-based reconstructions of land climate changes during Dansgaard–Oeschger events
, Climate of the Past, ISSN: 1814-9324 -
Journal articleFargette N, Eastwood JP, Phan TD, et al., 2026,
Fluid and Kinetic Properties of the Near-Sun Heliospheric Current Sheet
, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol: 997, Pages: 174-174, ISSN: 0004-637X<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p> The heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is an important large-scale structure of the heliosphere, and, for the first time, the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission enables us to study its properties statistically, close to the Sun. We visually identify the 39 HCS crossings measured by PSP below 50 <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sub>⊙</jats:sub> during encounters 6–21, and investigate the occurrence and properties of magnetic reconnection, the behavior of the spectral properties of the turbulent energy cascade, and the occurrence of kinetic instabilities at the HCS. We find that 82% of the HCS crossings present signatures of reconnection jets, showing that the HCS is continuously reconnecting close to the Sun. The proportion of inward and outward jets depends on heliocentric distance, and the main HCS reconnection X-line has a higher probability of being located close to the Alfvén surface. We also observe a radial asymmetry in jet acceleration, where inward jets do not reach the local Alfvén speed, contrary to outward jets. We find that turbulence levels are enhanced in the ion kinetic range, consistent with the triggering of an inverse cascade by magnetic reconnection. Finally, we highlight the ubiquity of magnetic hole trains in the high- <jats:italic>β</jats:italic> environment of the HCS, showing that the mirror mode instability plays a key role in regulating the ion temperature anisotropy in HCS reconnection. Our findings shed new light on the properties of magnetic reconnection in the high- <jats:italic>β</jats:italic> plasma environment of the HCS, its interplay with the turbulent cascade, and the role of the mirror mode instability. </jats
-
Journal articleIm U, Samset BH, Nenes A, et al., 2026,
Aerosol‐cloud interactions: overcoming a barrier to projecting near‐term climate evolution and risk
, AGU Advances, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2576-604XAerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in climate science, critically affecting our ability to project near-term climate evolution and assess societal risks. These interactions influence effective radiative forcing, cloud dynamics, and precipitation patterns, yet remain insufficiently constrained due to limitations in observations, modeling, and process understanding. This uncertainty hampers robust policy advice across multiple domains—from estimating remaining carbon budgets and climate sensitivity, to anticipating regional extreme events and evaluating climate interventions such as solar radiation modification. In many cases, the influence of ACI is either underappreciated or excluded from decision-making frameworks due to its complexity and lack of quantification. This perspective outlines a path forward to overcome these barriers by leveraging emerging opportunities in satellite remote sensing, ground-based and airborne observations, high-resolution climate modeling, and machine learning. We identify key areas where rapid progress is feasible, including improved retrievals of cloud microphysical properties, better representation of natural aerosols in a warming world, and enhanced integration of observational and modeling communities. Even as anthropogenic aerosol and its impacts on clouds is reducing owing to emissions controls, addressing ACI uncertainties remains essential for refining climate projections, supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, and delivering actionable science to policymakers in a rapidly changing climate system.
-
Journal articleDavies B, Gribbin T, King O, et al., 2026,
Palaeoglacier reconstruction and dynamics of Cordillera Vilcanota in the tropical high Peruvian Andes
, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0197-9337Tropical glaciers are important indicators of climate change, provide freshwater resources for downstream communities, and form an important component of the hydrological cycle. Understanding the dynamics and patterns of behaviour of tropical palaeoglaciers is important for interpreting their sensitivities and vulnerabilities. Glacier advances in the high tropical Peruvian Andes occurred multiple times during the last glacial cycle and Holocene, leaving complex geomorphological evidence on the landscape. The substantial topographic, geological and climatic variability in this region leads to high geomorphic diversity. However, few detailed geomorphological studies have been conducted to date, leading to considerable uncertainty in the behaviours and drivers of tropical palaeoglaciers. Here, we provide a detailed geomorphological analysis of the Cordillera Vilcanota, Cusco region, southern Peru (71°W, 13.7°S), and use morphostratigraphic principles to reconstruct the former maximum icefield extent and palaeoglacier advances. Across this domain, we mapped ~23,000 features encompassing five key environments: glacier, subglacial, ice-marginal, fluvial and lacustrine. The mapped features show evidence of both modern-day polythermal and temperate ice margins, with low meltwater volumes leading to small-scale glaciofluvial landform formation. However, larger moraines, beyond those well-dated to the Younger Dryas and Antarctic Cold Reversal, assumed to represent Last Glacial Maximum and earlier advances, suggest that conditions were temperate and drained by more substantial rivers, with coupled flow of ice and till, and evidence of subglacial scouring, drumlin formation and the deposition of substantial moraines and large palaeosandar. Our reconstructed maximum icefield covers 2,660 km<sup>2</sup> and was drained by multiple topographically constrained ice lobes across the region. In the north, these ice lobes reached an elevation of 3,500 m asl, but wer
-
Journal articleEbi KL, Haines A, Andrade RFS, et al., 2026,
Correction to: The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: transdisciplinary practical guidance (Climatic Change, (2025), 178, 8, (143), 10.1007/s10584-025-03976-7)
, Climatic Change, Vol: 179, ISSN: 0165-0009The original article has been corrected. In this article Kathryn Bowen at affiliation ‘Melbourne Climate Futures; and Environment, Climate, and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia’ was missing from the author list. The section “Conflicts of Interest” was also missing and should have read: “Select authors declare potential interests arising from funding from Wellcome, NIH, NIHR, Oak Foundation, CDC, CSTE, WHO, Green Climate Fund, World Bank, Asia Development Bank, CIHR, SSHRC, NSF, NovoNordisc (sponsored travel), and honoraria for academic engagement from US universities. One author is a Wellcome employee. One author (KLE) is a Deputy Editor for Climatic Change.”
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
Join the network
Contact Hsuan-Yi to join the network.