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Journal articleDai AZ, Gregory J, Ceppi P, 2026,
Understanding the Climate Response to Different Vertical Patterns of Radiative Forcing
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 53, ISSN: 0094-8276The dependence of climate response on the vertical structure of radiative forcing is studied using a set of idealized experiments, with horizontally uniform and vertically confined forcings. We find for a given effective forcing magnitude, higher-altitude forcing causes a smaller global warming, owing to more negative cloud feedback. We present novel evidence relating this altitude dependence to sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric static stability. The imposed instantaneous forcings are horizontally uniform, but higher-altitude forcings more effectively suppress convection in the tropical warm pool, producing a more positive effective (adjusted) surface forcing in that region. This gives rise, during the subsequent climate change, to greater warming contrast between the warm pool and rest of the globe, and hence to increase in low cloud amount. Our results show that to achieve accurate climate projections under anthropogenic forcings, it is important to correctly represent the vertical structures of the applied radiative forcing.
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Journal articleVerity R, Cori A, Mishra S, et al., 2026,
Robert Verity, Samir Bhatt, Anne Cori, Seth Flaxman, and Swapnil Mishra’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response’ by Wood et al.
, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol: 189, Pages: 117-119, ISSN: 0964-1998 -
Journal articleEastwood JP, Phan TD, Drake JF, et al., 2026,
Magnetic reconnection energy fluxes in the near-sun heliospheric current sheet as observed by parker solar probe
, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol: 996, ISSN: 0004-637XThe Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) is a fundamental feature of the heliosphere, playing a key role organizing the magnetic structure of the solar wind. In contrast to observations previously made through the majority of the heliosphere, Parker Solar Probe has recently revealed that the HCS is typically reconnecting in the inner heliosphere. This provides a new opportunity to study reconnection dynamics in large-scale current sheets and assess how this is different from smaller systems such as Earth’s magnetosphere. We use Parker data to explore HCS reconnection energy partition in two case studies from Encounter 07 and 08. In both cases, we find that in the exhaust, the proton enthalpy flux density is largest, with significant contributions from the proton kinetic energy flux density and electron enthalpy flux density. In contrast, the exhaust Poynting flux density is small in both events. The size and stability of the HCS allows for a control volume analysis to be performed, thus allowing us to estimate changes in energy flux during reconnection. This analysis shows that energy is primarily transferred from the magnetic field to the protons, manifested as the kinetic energy of the exhaust and proton heating. Although the exhaust electron enthalpy flux density is significant, the incoming and outgoing electron enthalpy fluxes are found to be similar, and there is minimal electron heating. The small contribution of the Poynting flux in the outflow may be an important feature of HCS reconnection, with implications for reconnection in large-scale solar and astrophysical current sheets more generally.
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Journal articleLavergne A, Harrison SP, Atsawawaranunt K, et al., 2026,
Minimal impact of recent decline in C4 vegetation abundance on atmospheric carbon isotopic composition
, Communications Earth & Environment, ISSN: 2662-4435Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and land management influence the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 plants, yet their impact on the global carbon cycle remains uncertain. Here, we use a parsimonious model of C3 and C4 plant distribution, based on optimality principles, combined with a simplified representation of the global carbon cycle, to assess how shifts in plant abundances driven by carbon dioxide and climate affect global gross primary production, land-based carbon isotope discrimination, and the isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We estimate that the proportion of C4 plants in total biomass declined from about 16% to 12% between 1982 and 2016, despite an increase in the abundance of C4 crops. This decline reflects the reduced competitive advantage of C4 photosynthesis in a carbon dioxide-enriched atmosphere. As a result, global gross primary production rose by approximately 16.5 ± 1.8 petagrams of carbon, and land-based carbon isotope discrimination increased by 0.017 ± 0.001‰ per year. Accounting for changes in C3 and C4 abundances reduces the difference between observed and modelled trends in atmospheric carbon isotope composition, but does not fully explain the observed decrease, pointing to additional, unaccounted drivers.
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Journal articleAli Z, Abubakar I, Amegah AK, et al., 2026,
Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Africa: an international collaboration for locally led research and action.
, Lancet, Vol: 407, Pages: 185-194Climate change inflicts substantial economic damage on developing African nations, threatening progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. There are synergies between actions needed to tackle climate change and other ongoing development priorities for Africa, including infectious disease control, facilitating clean energy access, reducing air pollution, tackling malnutrition and food insecurity, and providing universal health coverage. Action to protect human health against climate change needs to be integrated into all systems that are responsible for delivering essential services and implementing policies across all sectors that underpin the attainment of key development priorities for Africa. These systems include the Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's 2063 Agenda for building The Africa We Want, and the ongoing negotiations and work programmes in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adequate stocktaking of and access to robust data and scientific evidence is needed to support this effort and guide priorities for policies that protect and promote health and for monitoring progress over time. In response to this need, the Lancet Countdown is launching a new initiative to bring together a transdisciplinary research collaboration to help build regional capacity, strengthen existing networks, generate evidence, and mobilise data across numerous domains at the climate change and health nexus in Africa.
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Journal articleZhong Q, Gan J, Tu S, et al., 2026,
Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 17Most studies on tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate focus on long-term variability, yet the short-term (days or shorter) variations across the TC lifecycle, with a particular focus on the period before landfall, are most critical because they strongly influence flood risk. Using satellite data, we show that, globally, the mean rain rate of TCs increases by over 20% from 60 hours before landfall to the time of landfall. This increase occurs across hemispheres, ocean basins, intensity categories, and latitudes, although the magnitude varies. As a TC approaches the coast, land-sea thermal contrasts raise low-level humidity over land, while frictional differences enhance convergence, upward motion, and instability on the offshore side of the circulation. These conditions collectively promote increased convection and precipitation of TCs as they near landfall. Our findings critically strengthen the current understanding of TC precipitation dynamics and support more effective flood management.
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Journal articleBanerjee R, Raghunathan N, Mellacheruvu V, et al., 2026,
P1293 Rapid Urbanisation and IBD Prevalence in Rural India: Insights from a Satellite Based Deep Learning Index
, Journal of Crohn’s and Colitis, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1873-9946<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Background</jats:title> <jats:p>Urbanisation has been associated with IBD, but the transition in most regions is too gradual. In rapidly industrialising settings like India, this transition is compressed into a single decade, creating an opportunity to quantify how fast environmental change affects disease risk. Traditional methods to assess urbanization struggle due to cost and lack of longitudinal granularity. We conducted a large rural IBD prevalence study in Telangana state in Southern India, pairing clinical field data with a satellite-derived deep learning urbanicity index1,2 to examine how 10 years of rapid urban development relates to IBD burden.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods</jats:title> <jats:p>The rural outreach program covered 5 districts of Telangana. A door-to-door survey captured demographics, environmental factors, and key gastrointestinal symptoms (weight loss, diarrhoea, abdominal pain & rectal bleeding). Symptomatic patients underwent diagnostic tests (ultrasound, laboratory, colonoscopy) for IBD confirmation. Urban development was quantified using a self-supervised contrastive deep learning model applied to Landsat-8 satellite data (2013–2023) to extract features reflecting population growth, built-up expansion and environmental shifts. This produced a normalised Deep Learning Urbanicity Index(DLUI;0–1 scale where 1 depicts maximum urbanization;Fig1), validated against the population-density-based degree of urbanization DEGURBA index3. IBD prevalence was correlated with both current DLUI (2023) and the percentage rise in DLUI across 10y (2013–2023).</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec>
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Journal articlePatterson MO, Rosenberg C, Seki O, et al., 2026,
Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene
, Nature Geoscience, ISSN: 1752-0894Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS.
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Journal articleLi M, Toumi R, 2026,
Attributing causes of increased intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes using a stochastic model (IRIS)
, Environmental Research Communications, Vol: 8Understanding how changing conditions influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is of great importance. This study applies a stochastic model (IRIS) to attribute the causes of the increased North Atlantic hurricane intensity from 1979 to 2024. In the model, the increased potential intensity and southward track shifts towards higher potential intensity comparably contribute to an increasing trend of 0.08 m s<sup>−1</sup> per year in the lifetime maximum intensity. However, the simulated trends were not sensitive to the epochal changes in relative intensity to date. The model also predicts a southward shift in landfall (−0.10 <sup>∘</sup>/yr), which is hard to detect. Our findings emphasize an increasing recent TC risk, particularly at low latitudes.
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Journal articleBose I, Hadida G, Green R, et al., 2026,
Rainfall and water-related diseases, malnutrition and mortality in Low- and Middle- Income Countries: a systematic review of the epidemiological evidence
, Heliyon, Vol: 12Background Climate change is altering rainfall patterns. Rainfall has been linked to numerous health outcomes, through the impacts on water quality and quantity, but the coherence and strength of evidence across outcomes remain unclear. Objectives Understand and evaluate the strength of evidence on associations between rainfall (both low and heavy events) and health outcomes in Low- and Middle- Income Countries (LMICs). Methods A systematic review of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies quantifying associations between rainfall and human health outcomes in LMIC populations was conducted. Seven databases were searched including MEDLINE and EMBASE. Study quality was evaluated using 9 modified criteria that were previously used to assess environmental epidemiology studies. The strength of evidence for each health outcome was assessed across rainfall exposures. Results Of 23,579 papers identified, 177 met the inclusion criteria. Health outcomes included diarrheal diseases (n = 119); malnutrition (n = 35); mortality (n = 21); helminth infections (n = 6), and eye infections (n = 4). There was moderately strong evidence for positive associations between both heavy and low rainfall and all-cause diarrhea. Evidence for undernutrition was mixed, with moderate evidence of a positive association with low rainfall. Despite sharing causal pathways, diarrheal disease and nutrition studies found contrasting results for heavy rainfall, likely due to differing study designs. Studies were heterogenous in design, rainfall exposure definitions, and lag times. Studies also often lacked a clear hypothesis. Discussion There is substantial evidence that rainfall affects health in LMICs through multiple pathways. Limitations in the data (often from cross-sectional surveys) and study designs, limit the strength of evidence for several health outcomes. Specifically, studies frequently used inappropriate exposures or lags to reflect the causal pathways. In future studies, efforts should be dir
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