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Journal articleRiley AI, Blangiardo M, Piel FB, et al., 2026,
A Bayesian multisource fusion model for spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ in an urban setting
, Environmetrics, Vol: 37, ISSN: 1180-4009Airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major public health concern in urban environments, where population density and emission sources exacerbate exposure risks. We present a novel Bayesian spatiotemporal fusion model to estimate monthly PM2.5 concentrations over Greater London (2014–2019) at 1 km resolution. The model integrates multiple PM2.5 data sources, including outputs from two atmospheric air quality dispersion models, and predictive variables, such as vegetation and satellite aerosol optical depth, while explicitly modeling a latent spatiotemporal field. Spatial misalignment of the data is addressed through a hierarchical fusion and spatial interpolation approach to predict across the entire area. Building on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) within the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) framework, our method introduces spatially- and temporally-varying coefficients to flexibly calibrate datasets and capture fine-scale variability. Model performance and complexityare balanced using predictive metrics such as the predictive model choice criterion and thorough cross-validation. The best performing model shows excellent fit and robust predictive performance, enabling reliable high-resolution spatiotemporal mapping of PM2.5 concentrations with the associated uncertainty. Furthermore, the model outputs, including full posterior predictive distributions, can be used to map exceedance probabilities of regulatory thresholds, supporting air quality management and targetedinterventions in vulnerable urban areas, as well as providing refined exposure estimates of PM2.5 for epidemiological applications.
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Journal articleLi M, Toumi R, 2026,
Can tropical cyclones exist near the Equator?
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 152, ISSN: 0035-9009Tropical cyclones (TCs) rarely form within about 5 degrees of latitude of theEquator due to the weak Coriolis force, yet it is not clear how a weak Coriolisforce would affect an already developed TC vortex. In this study, a set of Cori-olis parameter (f ) sensitivity experiments are applied to a well-developed TCvortex in idealized simulations by decreasing f to zero, both abruptly and grad-ually. The simulated TCs weaken due to the reduction of f . However, dependingon the initial intensity, it can take several days for the TC to decay to a tropicalstorm. Both radial inflow and outflow strengthen throughout the cyclone depth,because of decreasing inertial stability and increasing agradient force associ-ated with reduced f . This further causes a deeper inflow layer and strengtheneddowndrafts associated with convection in the outer rainbands. The downdraftentrainment of mid-level dry air into the deeper inflow layer stabilizes theboundary layer and suppresses deep convection, ultimately resulting in theweakening of TCs. Although TCs are not formed readily near the Equator, if theyare steered there they could potentially exist long enough to cause damage.
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Journal articleDean TR, Abbott TH, Engberg Z, et al., 2025,
Impact of forecast stability on navigational contrail avoidance
, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH: INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 5 -
Journal articleCarlson AE, Bakken-French N, Thayne M, et al., 2025,
Disappearing glaciers of the Oregon Cascades, USA
, Annals of Glaciology, Vol: 67, ISSN: 0260-3055The Oregon Cascades had 35 named glaciers on seven volcanoes in the 1980s, with 34 of those glaciers remaining by 2000. Here, we document the glaciers that fall into the Global Glacier Casualty List categories based on five years of field observations of these 34 glaciers. Five glaciers have disappeared, four have almost disappeared and eight are critically endangered. Thus, half of the Oregon Cascades named glaciers have disappeared, almost disappeared, or reached critically endangered status in the 21st century. Between 1980 and 2024, the May–October ablation season of the Oregon Cascades region warmed at ∼0.3°C per decade, with a 2020–24 mean temperature ∼1.7°C warmer than the 1975–84 mean. In contrast, there was no significant trend in November–April accumulation season precipitation. Given the significant rise in melt-season temperature, we attribute ongoing glacier disappearance in the Oregon Cascades to the warming climate.
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Journal articleEiden E, Pritchard ME, Galetto F, et al., 2025,
Quantifying the Eruptive Flux on Venus With VenSAR Informed by Observations From Earth and Io
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-PLANETS, Vol: 130, ISSN: 2169-9097 -
Journal articleJones G, Zhang Z, Clayton K, et al., 2025,
Utilizing Soil Centrifugation for Accurate Estimates of Carbon Dioxide Removal via Enhanced Rock Weathering
, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 59, Pages: 27305-27315, ISSN: 0013-936X -
Journal articleGavasso-Rita YL, Zaerpour M, Abdelmoaty H, et al., 2025,
Rainfed spring canola yield response to changing heat and water stress in the Canadian Prairie region
, AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0378-3774 -
Journal articleKeeping TR, Shepherd TG, Prentice IC, et al., 2025,
Influence of global climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States under recent and future climates
, Climate Dynamics, Vol: 64, ISSN: 0930-7575Predictable modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have a major influence on regional weather patterns, an important control on wildfire occurrence. Although these global climate modes have been associated with historical variability in wildfire occurrence in the United States and are used to forecast seasonal wildfire risk, precise information about the spatial pattern and magnitude of their influence is lacking and the satellite record of wildfires is too short to address these issues. Here we use wildfire occurrence model with a large ensemble of 1600 simulated years from EC-Earth3 in a recent climate (2000–2009) and a future climate corresponding to + 2 °C global warming, to characterise the impact of specific climate modes on wildfire occurrence in the contiguous US. We show that ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the 1-year lagged Tropical North Atlantic (TNA+1) have the greatest effect on annual fire occurrence—strongly contributed by the effect of these modes on hot, dry conditions in the Great Plains and precipitation in the southwestern US. El Niño is not significantly associated with wildfire occurrence in the northwestern US, contrary to expectation, but is associated with a later (earlier) wildfire season peak in the southwestern (southeastern) US. Under future warming, the AMO and PNA become a significant influence over most of the US, and the magnitude of impact of ENSO and TNA+1 increase strongly.
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Journal articlePonsonby J, Teoh R, Karcher B, et al., 2025,
An updated microphysical model for particle activation in contrails: the role of volatile plume particles
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol: 25, Pages: 18617-18637, ISSN: 1680-7316Global simulations suggest the mean annual contrail cirrus net radiative forcing is comparable to that of aviation's accumulated CO2 emissions. Currently, these simulations assume non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) and ambient particles are the only source of condensation nuclei, omitting activation of volatile particulate matter (vPM) formed in the nascent plume. Here, we extend a microphysical model to include vPM and benchmark this against a more advanced parcel model (pyrcel) modified to treat contrail formation. We explore how the apparent emission index (EI) of contrail ice crystals (AEIice) scales with EInvPM, vPM properties, ambient temperature, and aircraft/fuel characteristics. We find model agreement within 10 %–30 % in the previously defined “soot-poor” regime. However, discrepancies increase non-linearly (up to 60 %) in the “soot-rich” regime, due to differing treatment of droplet growth. Both models predict that, in the “soot-poor” regime, AEIice approaches 1016 kg−1 for low ambient temperatures (< 210 K) and sulfur-rich vPM, which is comparable to estimates in the “soot-rich” regime. Moreover, our sensitivity analyses suggest that the point of transition between the “soot-poor” and “soot-rich” regimes is a dynamic threshold that ranges from 1013–1016 kg−1 and depends sensitively on ambient temperature and vPM properties, underlining the need for vPM emission characterisation measurements. We suggest that existing contrail simulations omitting vPM activation may underestimate AEIice, especially for flights powered by lean-burn engines. Furthermore, our results imply that, under these conditions, AEIice might be reduced by (i) reducing fuel sulfur content, (ii) minimising organic emissions, and/or (iii) avoiding cooler regions of the atmosphere.
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Journal articleZhang Z, Jones G, Calabrese S, et al., 2025,
An Integrated Modelling Framework to Determine Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal via Enhanced Rock Weathering
, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 31, ISSN: 1354-1013
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