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Journal articleHan W, Zhang J, Xu Z, et al., 2024,
Could the association between ozone and arterial stiffness be modified by fish oil supplementation?
, Environmental Research, Vol: 249, ISSN: 0013-9351BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness (AS) is an important predicting factor for cardiovascular disease. However, no epidemiological studies have ever explored the mediating role of biomarkers in the association between ozone and AS, nor weather fish oil modified such association. METHODS: Study participants were drawn from the UK biobank, and a total of 95,699 middle-aged and older adults were included in this study. Ozone was obtained from Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model matched to residential addresses, fish oil from self-reported intake, and arterial stiffness was based on device measurements. First, we applied a double robust approach to explore the association between ozone or fish oil intake and arterial stiffness, adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and regional levels. Then, how triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (Apo B)/apolipoprotein A (ApoA) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C) mediate the relationship between ozone and AS. Last, the modifying role of fish oil was further explored by stratified analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 55 years; annual average ozone exposure was associated with ASI (beta:0.189 [95%CI: 0.146 to 0.233], P < 0.001), and compared to participants who did not consume fish oil, fish oil users had a lower ASI (beta: 0.061 [95%CI: -0.111 to -0.010], P = 0.016). The relationship between ozone exposure and AS was mediated by triglycerides, ApoB/ApoA, and Non-HDL-C with mediation proportions ranging from 10.90% to 18.30%. Stratified analysis showed lower estimates on the ozone-AS relationship in fish oil users (P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: Ozone exposure was associated with higher levels of arterial stiffness, in contrast to fish oil consumption, which showed a protective association. The association between ozone exposure and arterial stiffness was partially mediated by some biomarkers. In the general population, fish oil consumption might provide prote
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Journal articleHu S, Shu S, Chen Z, et al., 2024,
Sustainable impact analysis of freight pooling strategies on city crowdsourcing logistics platform
, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol: 130, ISSN: 1361-9209This study investigates the effects of freight pooling strategies on urban crowdsourcing logistics, focusing on economic, social, and environmental outcomes. Utilising a mixed-integer linear programming model with an adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm, our goal is to optimise the cost-efficiency of the freight pooling system. Real-world delivery and driver trajectory data from a major Chinese crowdsourcing logistics platform, along with high-resolution vehicle telematics data, validate our model in five scenarios, each defined by distinct cost coefficients reflecting diverse stakeholder priorities. Results show potential for up to a 21.3% reduction in carbon emissions, a 28.3% decrease in truck activity spatial coverage, and a 7.6% increase in available drivers. However, deadheading trips, due to order consolidation into fewer vehicles without an increase in overall demand, could offset maximum carbon reduction benefits by 16.4%. Other effects on customers’ and drivers’ welfare are explored for a comprehensive quantitative assessment of freight pooling strategies’ sustainability benefits.
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Journal articleLi S, Robert A, Faisal AA, et al., 2024,
Learning to optimise wind farms with graph transformers
, Applied Energy, Vol: 359, ISSN: 0306-2619This work proposes a novel data-driven model capable of providing accurate predictions for the power generation of all wind turbines in wind farms of arbitrary layout, yaw angle configurations and wind conditions. The proposed model functions by encoding a wind farm into a fully connected graph and processing the graph representation through a graph transformer. The resultant graph transformer surrogate demonstrates robust generalisation capabilities and effectively uncovers latent structural patterns embedded within the graph representation of wind farms. The versatility of the proposed approach extends to the optimisation of yaw angle configurations through the application of genetic algorithms. This evolutionary optimisation strategy facilitated by the graph transformer surrogate achieves prediction accuracy levels comparable to industrially standard wind farm simulation tools, with a relative accuracy of more than 99% in identifying optimal yaw angle configurations of previously unseen wind farm layouts. An additional advantage lies in the significant reduction in computational costs, positioning the proposed methodology as a compelling tool for efficient and accurate wind farm optimisation.
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Journal articleHartner A-M, Li X, Echeverria-Londono S, et al., 2024,
Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.
, Lancet Glob Health, Vol: 12, Pages: e563-e571BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine
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Journal articleHajmohammadi H, Talaei M, Fecht D, et al., 2024,
Long-term air pollution exposure and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: A UK-wide cohort study.
, Respir Med, Vol: 224BACKGROUND: The association between air quality and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. We investigated this association using serological individual-level data adjusting for a wide range of confounders, in a large population-based cohort (COVIDENCE UK). METHODS: We assessed the associations between long-term (2015-19) nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), exposures with SARS-CoV-2 infection, level of antibody response among those infected, and COVID-19 disease severity. We used serological data from 10,489 participants in the COVIDENCE UK cohort, and estimated annual average air pollution exposure at each participant's home postcode. RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders, we found a positive association between 5-year NO2 and PM2.5 exposures and the risk of seropositivity: 10 unit increase in NO2 (μg/m3) was associated with an increasing risk of seropositivity by 1.092 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.17; p-for-trend 0.012). For PM2.5, 10 unit increase (μg/m3) was associated with an increasing risk of seropositivity by 1.65 (95% CI 1.015-2.68; p-for-trend 0·049). In addition, we found that NO2 was positively associated with higher antibody titres (p-for-trend 0·013) among seropositive participants, with no evidence of an association for PM2.5. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the long-term burden of air pollution increased the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and has important implications for future pandemic preparedness. This evidence strengthens the case for reducing long-term air pollution exposures to reduce the vulnerability of individuals to respiratory viruses.
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Journal articleBoulton SJ, Rodés Á, Fabel D, et al., 2024,
Complex erosional response to uplift and rock strength contrasts in transient river systems crossing an active normal fault revealed by <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>26</sup>Al cosmogenic nuclide analyses
, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol: 49, Pages: 1428-1450, ISSN: 0197-9337Understanding the influence of bedrock lithology on the catchment-averaged erosion rates of normal fault-bounded catchments and the effect that different bedrock erodibilties have on the evolution of transient fluvial geomorphology remain major challenges. To investigate this problem, we collected 18 samples for 10Be and 26Al cosmogenic nuclide analysis to determine catchment-averaged erosion rates along the well-constrained Gediz Fault system in western Türkiye, which is experiencing fault-driven river incision owing to a linkage event ~0.8 Ma and has weak rocks overlying strong rocks in the footwall. Combined with existing cosmogenic data, we show that the background rate of erosion of the pre-incision landscape can be constrained as <92 mMyr−1, and erosion rates within the transient reach vary from 16 to 1330 mMyr−1. Erosion rates weakly scale with unit stream power, steepness index and slip rate on the bounding fault, although erosion rates are an order of magnitude lower than slip rates. However, there are no clear relationships between erosion rate and relief or catchment slope. Bedrock strength is assessed using Schmidt hammer rebound and Selby Rock Mass Strength Assessments; despite a 30-fold difference in erodibility, there is no difference in the erosion rate between strong and weak rocks. We argue that, for the Gediz Graben, the strong lithological contrast affects the ability of the river to erode the bed, resulting in a complex erosional response to uplift along the graben boundary fault. Weak covariant trends between erosion rates and various topographic factors potentially result from incomplete sediment mixing or pre-existing topographic inheritance. These findings indicate that the erosional response to uplift along an active normal fault is a complex response to multiple drivers that vary spatially and temporally.
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Journal articleCallaghan A, 2024,
A Model for Air Entrainment Rates in Oceanic Whitecaps
, Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN: 0094-8276 -
Journal articleWood D, Evangelopoulos D, Beevers S, et al., 2024,
Exposure to ambient air pollution and cognitive function: an analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing cohort
, Environmental Health, ISSN: 1832-3367 -
Journal articleFeingold G, Ghate VP, Russell LM, et al., 2024,
Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening.
, Sci Adv, Vol: 10Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today's climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research-field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.
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Journal articleZhang-Zheng H, Adu-Bredu S, Duah-Gyamfi A, et al., 2024,
Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia
, Nature Communications, ISSN: 2041-1723
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