Publications

Journal article

McLeod J, Whittaker AC, Bell RE, Hampson GJ, Watkins SE, Brooke SAS, Rezwan N, Hook J, Zondervan JR, Ganti V, Lyster SJet al., 2024,

Landscapes on the edge: river intermittency in a warming world

, Geology, Vol: 52, Pages: 512-516, ISSN: 1943-2682

Sediment transport in rivers is not steady through time. Highly intermittent river systems, which only transport bedload during the most significant flow events, are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and precipitation patterns. People and landscapes can be vulnerable to fluvial processes, and quantifying river intermittency is critical for assessing landscape response to projected changes in precipitation extremes due to climate change. We generated new constraints on recent to modern fluvial intermittency factors—the frequency at which bedload is mobilized in a river—based on field measurements in the Corinth Rift, Greece, and Holocene sediment accumulation rates. Results reveal some of the lowest documented intermittency factors to date, showing Mediterranean rivers can transport an entire annual sediment load in a rare storm event. Coupling intermittency calculations with historical flood and precipitation data indicates these rivers transport bedload during one storm every ∼4 yr, associated with rainfall >50 mm/d, and subsequent floods; this hydroclimate is typical across the Mediterranean region. Furthermore, climate models predict precipitation extremes will increase across Europe, and the frequency of events that surpass thresholds of sediment transport will increase significantly, potentially causing sediment loads to double by 2100 CE. As the area of arid land likely to host intermittent rivers also increases, sensitive landscapes are on the edge of significant geomorphic change, driven by global warming.

Journal article

Kadelbach P, Weinmayr G, Chen J, Jaensch A, Rodopoulou S, Strak M, de Hoogh K, Andersen ZJ, Bellander T, Brandt J, Cesaroni G, Fecht D, Forastiere F, Gulliver J, Hertel O, Hoffmann B, Hvidtfeldt UA, Katsouyanni K, Ketzel M, Leander K, Ljungman P, Magnusson PKE, Pershagen G, Rizzuto D, Samoli E, Severi G, Stafoggia M, Tjonneland A, Vermeulen R, Peters A, Wolf K, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Brunekreef B, Hoek G, Zitt E, Nagel Get al., 2024,

Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality-Results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study

, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 252, ISSN: 0013-9351

Cite

Journal article

Aliaga-Samanez A, Romero D, Murray K, Segura M, Real R, Olivero Jet al., 2024,

Potential climate change effects on the distribution of urban and sylvatic dengue and yellow fever vectors.

, Pathog Glob Health, Vol: 118, Pages: 397-407

Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes' favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictus will continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. africanus in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.

Journal article

Ewers RM, Orme CDL, Pearse WD, Zulkifli N, Yvon-Durocher G, Yusah KM, Yoh N, Yeo DCJ, Wong A, Williamson J, Wilkinson CL, Wiederkehr F, Webber BL, Wearn OR, Wai L, Vollans M, Twining JP, Turner EC, Tobias JA, Thorley J, Telford EM, Teh YA, Tan HH, Swinfield T, Svátek M, Struebig M, Stork N, Sleutel J, Slade EM, Sharp A, Shabrani A, Sethi SS, Seaman DJI, Sawang A, Roxby GB, Rowcliffe JM, Rossiter SJ, Riutta T, Rahman H, Qie L, Psomas E, Prairie A, Poznansky F, Pillay R, Picinali L, Pianzin A, Pfeifer M, Parrett JM, Noble CD, Nilus R, Mustaffa N, Mullin KE, Mitchell S, Mckinlay AR, Maunsell S, Matula R, Massam M, Martin S, Malhi Y, Majalap N, Maclean CS, Mackintosh E, Luke SH, Lewis OT, Layfield HJ, Lane-Shaw I, Kueh BH, Kratina P, Konopik O, Kitching R, Kinneen L, Kemp VA, Jotan P, Jones N, Jebrail EW, Hroneš M, Heon SP, Hemprich-Bennett DR, Haysom JK, Harianja MF, Hardwick J, Gregory N, Gray R, Gray REJ, Granville N, Gill R, Fraser A, Foster WA, Folkard-Tapp H, Fletcher RJ, Fikri AH, Fayle TM, Faruk A, Eggleton P, Edwards DP, Drinkwater R, Dow RA, Döbert TF, Didham RK, Dickinson KJM, Deere NJ, de Lorm T, Dawood MM, Davison CW, Davies ZG, Davies RG, Dančák M, Cusack J, Clare EL, Chung A, Chey VK, Chapman PM, Cator L, Carpenter D, Carbone C, Calloway K, Bush ER, Burslem DFRP, Brown KD, Brooks SJ, Brasington E, Brant H, Boyle MJW, Both S, Blackman J, Bishop TR, Bicknell JE, Bernard H, Basrur S, Barclay MVL, Barclay H, Atton G, Ancrenaz M, Aldridge DC, Daniel OZ, Reynolds G, Banks-Leite Cet al., 2024,

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate.

, Nature, Vol: 631, Pages: 808-813

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.

Journal article

Mülmenstädt J, Gryspeerdt E, Dipu S, Quaas J, Ackerman AS, Fridlind AM, Tornow F, Bauer SE, Gettelman A, Ming Y, Zheng Y, Ma P-L, Wang H, Zhang K, Christensen MW, Varble AC, Leung LR, Liu X, Neubauer D, Partridge DG, Stier P, Takemura Tet al., 2024,

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol: 24, Pages: 7331-7345, ISSN: 1680-7316

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

Journal article

Graven HD, Warren H, Gibbs HK, Khatiwala S, Koven C, Lester J, Levin I, Spawn-Lee SA, Wieder Wet al., 2024,

Bomb radiocarbon evidence for strong global carbon uptake and turnover in terrestrial vegetation

, Science, Vol: 384, Pages: 1335-1339, ISSN: 0036-8075

Vegetation and soils are taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions because of small imbalances in large gross carbon exchanges from productivity and turnover that are poorly constrained. We combined a new budget of radiocarbon produced by nuclear bomb testing in the 1960s with model simulations to evaluate carbon cycling in terrestrial vegetation. We found that most state-of-the-art vegetation models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project underestimated the radiocarbon accumulation in vegetation biomass. Our findings, combined with constraints on vegetation carbon stocks and productivity trends, imply that net primary productivity is likely at least 80 petagrams of carbon per year presently, compared with the 43 to 76 petagrams per year predicted by current models. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in terrestrial vegetation is likely more short-lived and vulnerable than previously predicted.

Other

Engberg Z, Teoh R, Abbott T, Dean T, Stettler MEJ, Shapiro MLet al., 2024,

Supplementary material to "Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: The CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0"

Report

Brandmayr C, Bird J, Jennings N, Gilbert A, Ward B, Burke J, Mercer L, Serin Eet al., 2024,

General Election 2024: climate change priorities for the next UK Government

Journal article

Smith T, Mishra S, Dorigatti I, Dixit M, Tristem M, Pearse Wet al., 2024,

Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps

, Scientific Reports, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2045-2322

Previous work has shown that environmental variables affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it is unclear whether different strains show similar environmental responses. Here we leverage genetic data on the transmission of three (Alpha, Delta and Omicron BA.1) variants of SARS-CoV-2 throughout England, to unpick the roles that climate and public-health interventions play in the circulation of this virus. We find evidence for enhanced transmission of the virus in colder conditions in the first variant selective sweep (of Alpha, in winter), but limited evidence of an impact of climate in either the second (of Delta, in the summer, when vaccines were prevalent) or third sweep (of Omicron, in the winter, during a successful booster-vaccination campaign). We argue that the results for Alpha are to be expected if the impact of climate is non-linear: we find evidence of an asymptotic impact of temperature on the alpha variant transmission rate. That is, at lower temperatures, the influence of temperature on transmission is much higher than at warmer temperatures. As with the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, however, the overwhelming majority of variation in disease transmission is explained by the intrinsic biology of the virus and public-health mitigation measures. Specifically, when vaccination rates are high, a major driver of the spread of a new variant is it’s ability to evade immunity, and any climate effects are secondary (as evidenced for Delta and Omicron). Climate alone cannot describe the transmission dynamics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Journal article

Walding JC, Paluszny A, Zimmerman RW, 2024,

Numerical modelling of the influence of tidal stresses on fracture patterns on the surface of Europa

, Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, ISSN: 0723-2632

Jupiter’s satellite Europa is covered by an ice shell exhibiting many surface features, including linear structures called lineae, which in this work are treated as fractures. A three-dimensional finite-element simulator is used to numerically model fracture nucleation, growth, and interaction, assuming the ice is an isotropic, linear elastic medium. Tidal stresses are exerted upon the ice through the Jovian orbital relationship. These stresses are calculated using a closed-form model derived from first principles. The fractures grow in response to stress concentration around their tips, and a damage criterion models the weakening of the ice matrix. Three-dimensional non-planar multiple fracture growth is modelled as a function of geometric multi-modal stress intensity factors computed at the fracture tips. Fracturing is evaluated over multi-scale periods, from days to millions of years, thus capturing multiple tidal effects. Fracture behaviour is modelled across the Europan surface in one domain. The patterns are dense clusters of lineae about the stress maxima with diffuse fracturing in outlying regions. Fractures are also modelled in the vicinity of subsurface meltwater lenses, where fractures form parallel to the surface in contrast to the usual perpendicular orientation. The resultant fracture patterns are qualitatively compared against images from NASA’s Galileo mission. This work contributes to the understanding of Europan lineae by illustrating how they behave in a fracture mechanics framework, and suggests interesting results regarding lineae interaction with meltwater lenses. This work is also a proof of concept for this modelling approach, and will serve as the framework for future work.

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General Election 2024: climate change priorities for the next UK Government

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