@article{Williams:2018:10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6,
author = {Williams, ML and Lott, MC and Kitwiroon, N and Dajnak, D and Walton, H and Holland, M and Pye, S and Fecht, D and Toledano, MB and Beevers, SD},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6},
journal = {a modelling study for Great Britain},
pages = {e202--e213},
title = {The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6},
volume = {2},
year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background Climate change poses a dangerous and immediate threat to the health of populations in the UK and worldwide. We aimed to model different scenarios to assess the health co-benefits that result from mitigation actions. Methods In this modelling study, we combined a detailed techno-economic energy systems model (UK TIMES), air pollutant emission inventories, a sophisticated air pollution model (Community Multi-scale Air Quality), and previously published associations between concentrations and health outcomes. We used four scenarios and focused on the air pollution implications from fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone. The four scenarios were baseline, which assumed no further climate actions beyond those already achieved and did not meet the UK's Climate Change Act (at least an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2050 compared with 1990) target; nuclear power, which met the Climate Change Act target with a limited increase in nuclear power; low-greenhouse gas, which met the Climate Change Act target without any policy constraint on nuclear build; and a constant scenario that held 2011 air pollutant concentrations constant until 2050. We predicted the health and economic impacts from air pollution for the scenarios until 2050, and the inequalities in exposure across different socioeconomic groups. Findings NO2 concentrations declined leading to 4892000 life-years saved for the nuclear power scenario and 7178000 life-years saved for the low-greenhouse gas scenario from 2011 to 2154. However, the associations that we used might overestimate the effects of NO2 itself. PM2·5 concentrations in Great Britain are predicted to decrease between 42% and 44% by 2050 compared with 2011 in the scenarios that met the Climate Change Act targets, especially those from road traffic and off-road machinery. These reductions in PM2·5 are tempered by a 2035 peak (and subsequent decline) in biomass (wood bu
AU  - Williams,ML
AU  - Lott,MC
AU  - Kitwiroon,N
AU  - Dajnak,D
AU  - Walton,H
AU  - Holland,M
AU  - Pye,S
AU  - Fecht,D
AU  - Toledano,MB
AU  - Beevers,SD
DO  - 10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6
EP  - 213
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 2542-5196
SP  - 202
TI  - The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act
T2  - a modelling study for Great Britain
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/59149
VL  - 2
ER  - 

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