ICEPT staff and PhD students publish widely in a range of academic journals, policy reports and technical papers.
Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleNikas A, Sampedro J, Khourdajie AA, et al., 2026,
The challenge with climate-energy-economy models in constructing fair and equitable climate futures
, Futures, Vol: 181, ISSN: 0016-3287Climate change and policy are unevenly experienced across nations, social groups, households, sectors, and generations. Understanding how benefits and burdens of climate action can be equitably shared is therefore critical. While the cornerstone concept of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ is broadly accepted, the absence of consensus on equitable effort-sharing principles presents a challenge that permeates science underpinning climate policy. Climate-energy-economy models exhibit considerable conceptual, structural, and technical limitations in constructing equitable climate futures: they aggregate diverse Global South countries into homogeneous regions, fail to capture critical elements of international climate finance, and tend to produce one-size-fits-all strategies with limited consideration of local contexts. Model-based studies, additionally, have been argued to reflect Global North narratives in international scenario ensembles, assume persisting inequalities between the Global North and the Global South in the future, obscure ethical or normative choices behind operationalised principles of justice, and fail to systematically include stakeholders and scientists from the Global South. Here, we explore how modelling science can be more inclusive and effective in recognising these issues and co-constructing just climate futures. While acknowledging the inherent limitations of any modelling exercise, we argue that progress depends on several key actions, including meaningfully collaborating with stakeholders and scientists from other disciplines and critically from hitherto underrepresented and underfunded regions, incorporating wider policy priorities beyond mitigation, improving data and modelling capabilities to better represent the varied conditions of different communities, and integrating elements, policies, and governance structures that are indispensable to representing climate finance considerations.
-
Journal articleGale E, Schmidt O, O'Cinneide A, et al., 2026,
Balancing with batteries: The impact of revenue stacking and skip rates on battery energy storage profitability in Great Britain
, Journal of Energy Storage, Vol: 166Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly needed to provide flexibility and balancing services to accommodate rising shares of variable wind and solar generation, and rapid electrification with electric vehicles, heat pumps, and AI data centres. BESS deployment depends on whether market revenues are high enough and reliable enough to justify their capital-intensive investment. Revenue stacking across multiple markets is essential for a viable business model. However, most valuation studies neglect market-based operational constraints, including batteries being ‘skipped’: not being dispatched even when they offer the lowest-cost action. We quantify the value of revenue stacking across Great Britain’s day-ahead wholesale market and the balancing mechanism, and the cost of battery bids being skipped by the system operator. Using three years of half-hourly price data and a co-optimisation framework, we show that participation in the balancing mechanism increases BESS revenues by up to 250% relative to providing wholesale arbitrage alone. Stacking reduces revenue volatility, as diversifying income streams offsets the Balancing Mechanism’s higher price volatility. These gains are highly sensitive though. We show that each 10% increase in battery bids skipped reduces profits by 7%, or around £12,000 per MW per year. Similarly, pay-as-bid settlement means imperfect price capture proportionally erodes returns. These results highlight the need for policy changes that enable the better integration of BESS, as market design and dispatch integration can be as important as technology costs in determining whether batteries will deliver low-carbon flexibility at scale.
-
Journal articleSlade R, Green R, Vandezande S, 2026,
Developing effective market-based policies to incentivise fair and efficient European electricity transmission grid expansion
, Energy Policy, Vol: 217, ISSN: 0301-4215 -
Conference paperChalasti E, Oluleye G, Papathanasiou MM, et al., 2026,
Temporal aggregation bias in model-based Direct Air Capture performance under weather variability
, The 36th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering, Publisher: PSE Press, Pages: 297-305, ISSN: 2818-4734<jats:p>Direct Air Capture (DAC) is a negative emissions technology whose performance is inherently linked to ambient conditions, which directly affect its primary feed stream (air). A common simplification in DAC model simulations is the use of fixed weather conditions, which can bias the predicted performance under weather variability. In response, this study quantifies the impact of local meteorological variability and temporal weather aggregation on the performance of DAC units. Building on a previously developed and validated 1D mechanistic model of a fixed-bed Steam-assisted Temperature Vacuum Swing Adsorption (S-TVSA) DAC process, we simulate its operation using weather data from the Met Office station at Buchan (UK), near the Saint Fergus terminal - a strategic hub for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activities in Scotland. A two-branch methodological framework is developed combining optimization and forward simulations. Operating conditions are optimized using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to maximize productivity (Pr) and minimize specific equivalent work (Weq) at two temporal resolutions. Furthermore, daily weather inputs are aggregated on a monthly and yearly scale to assess the impact of data resolution on model predictions and real operational gains. Results show that temporal weather aggregation to yearly averages biases DAC key performance indicators, overestimating Pr by up to 5% while underestimating Weq by up to 31%, relative to performance based on daily weather variations. Moreover, optimization strategies that explicitly account for monthly weather variability present monthly gains, by increasing Pr by up to 10%. Yet, these monthly gains do not necessarily translate into significant operational performance benefits at the annual scale when daily weather data is propagated in the process model.</jats:p>
-
Journal articleForster PM, Walsh T, Smith C, et al., 2026,
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
, Earth System Science Data, Vol: 18, Pages: 3889-3933, ISSN: 1866-3508In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. We track twelve key sets of indicators of the state of the climate system, closely following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report (AR6) methods, to produce our fourth annual publication. One of the indicators, the Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) provides a crucial integrative measure of the overall heating of the planet and the pace of climate change-this has more than doubled since the 1976–1995 period. A newly added indicator of temperature extremes, the number of days experiencing marine heatwaves, has more than tripled between 1991 and 2025. For the 2016–2025 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.26 [1.13 to 1.36] °C, of which 1.24 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C relative to 1850–1900 in the year 2025, increasing at a rate of 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2016–2025. This high rate of warming, which matches the all-time high seen last year in the instrumental record, was caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54.6 ± 5.5 GtCO<inf>2</inf>e yr<sup>−1</sup> over the last decade (2015–2024), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that CO<inf>2</inf> emission growth is slowing. The continuation of these annual updates could track decreases or increases in the rate of human influence and climatic changes presented here, reflecting the outcomes of societal choices during the critical 2020s decade. The data presented herein can provide a useful reference point for the drafting of the IPCC seventh assessment report. In total, we employ analysis from over 40 global datasets (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20499280, Smith et al., 2026a). Future monitoring of these indi
-
Journal articleTan Z, Oluleye G, 2026,
Evaluating market-based interventions for heavy-duty zero-emission truck adoption under consumer heterogeneity
, Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal, ISSN: 2215-0986This research aims to assess the effects of different market-based interventions on accelerating the adoption of heavy-duty zero-emission trucks (ZETs). A novel agent-based model is developed and applied to simulate heterogeneous consumer choices across three heavy-duty truck segments, namely 49t tractor-trailers, 31t dump trucks, and 18t straight trucks, while accounting for perceived risks. The analysis also considers three powertrain options: internal combustion engine trucks, battery electric trucks, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. The assessment covers 56 policy scenarios, including hydrogen subsidies, purchase subsidies, electricity subsidies, operational subsidies, diesel taxes, and various combinations of these interventions. The results indicate that while subsidies are effective in promoting ZET adoption, they are costly; however, diesel taxation can help finance these measures. Therefore, policy combinations appear to be more effective. The analysis further shows that the effectiveness of interventions may diminish over time and that better alignment between specific policy instruments and truck types may improve policy efficiency. The simulation also reveals competition between different ZET technologies, which may lead to policy inefficiencies. This research contributes to the literature by demonstrating the impacts of market-based interventions on adoption behaviour beyond total cost of ownership calculations.
-
Journal articleTan N, Kiley F, Zilliacus J, et al., 2026,
Supporting Vietnam’s net-zero transport policies through demand and emissions modelling
, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, Vol: 9Transport is often overlooked in energy planning, and this is the case in Vietnam. Yet the transport sector is rapidly growing and is therefore a vital part of the country’s energy transition. This study adopts an evidence-based policymaking approach, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to project transport activity, energy demand, and emissions to 2050 in support of Vietnam’s net-zero commitment. It provides the first comprehensive, scenario-based assessment of Vietnam’s transport sector using national data and policy assumptions, offering a quantitative foundation for integrating transport into energy planning and facilitating informed stakeholder dialogue. By modelling scenarios that combine net-zero pathways with avoid-shift-improve (ASI) measures and conducting sensitivity analyses on population and GDP projections, the study develops new insights for Vietnam’s transport sector. Results show that net-zero can reduce energy demand by nearly 60% in passenger transport and 19% in freight, compared to 2024 values. Additionally, ASI measures can further lower these values by 19% and 41%, respectively. In terms of transport activity, ASI measures can reduce passenger activity by 50 billion passenger-km and freight by 115 billion tonne-km in 2050, compared to a reference case. Uncertainty in population growth has a minor impact on transport activity and emissions, due to the narrow range of projected population outcomes. In contrast, uncertainty in GDP growth has a much stronger influence, reflecting the wider range of economic projections. Modelling suggests that this variation significantly affects freight activity levels, cumulative emissions, and the timing of the peak emissions.
-
Journal articlePrütz R, Fuss S, Price J, et al., 2026,
Climate refugia implications of warming and land-intensive mitigation under overshoot
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 21Biodiversity loss is expected to escalate with every increment of global warming. Simultaneously, land-intensive climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation and bioenergy, may further compound biodiversity loss. So far, the magnitude of these two drivers has not been compared in the context of temperature overshoot, meaning the temporary exceedance of a targeted global warming limit. By combining spatial data on climate refugia (areas sheltering biodiversity from climate change), bioenergy cropland, and forestation for multiple cost-effective scenarios with varying levels of climate action and overshoot, we illustrate how both warming and mitigation affect today’s climate refugia across five integrated assessment models. Decisive climate action, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 °C, reduces the combined loss of today’s climate refugia due to warming and mitigation-related land-use change by more than 50% compared to current climate policies, outweighing potentially negative implications of mitigation at the global level by limiting the magnitude and duration of warming above 1.5 °C. We observe notable differences across regions and the considered model frameworks. Overshoot implications strongly depend on the underlying biodiversity recovery assumptions.
-
Journal articleRogelj J, Pirani A, Reisinger A, et al., 2026,
Practical guidance towards consistent use of overshoot terminology
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 21As global warming approaches 1.5 °C, the term ‘overshoot’ is becoming increasingly prominent in climate science, policy, and public communication, but the use of this term remains inconsistent and often ambiguous. This article traces the history of the term in ordinary language and science-policy contexts, showing how specialized uses such as ‘temperature overshoot’ or ‘overshoot pathway’ have diverged from the common meaning of exceeding a target or limit. We provide practical guidance for clearer communication, recommending that authors respect the ordinary meaning of overshoot and specify where insights refer to exceedance, peak warming, decline, or return below a given warming level, while avoiding short-hand terminology where it risks misunderstanding.
-
Journal articleBrighty A, Jalil-Vega F, Kameid NR, et al., 2026,
Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen
, Energy Policy, Vol: 213, ISSN: 0301-4215Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m−3 contribution to PM2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
-
Journal articleJohnson N, Buntoengpesuchsakul C, Schmidt O, et al., 2026,
The cost of sodium‑zinc molten salt batteries for grid-scale energy storage
, Journal of Energy Storage, Vol: 159AbstractDecarbonising power grids requires affordable storage to accommodate surplus wind and solar electricity over periods of hours to days. Batteries made from abundant elements offer a scalable solution. High-temperature molten salt devices such as sodium‑nickel-chloride (Na-NiCl<inf>2</inf>) batteries are commercial, but their cost remains a barrier. Replacing nickel with cheaper zinc could enable the needed savings, but the techno-economic potential of sodium–zinc (Na–Zn) batteries remains untested. We present the first cost and performance assessment of a solid-electrolyte Na-ZnCl<inf>2</inf> battery. Using a bottom-up engineering model and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, we find a baseline 240-cell module achieves project-level capital costs of 246–273 USD per kWh capacity, and a levelised cost of storage (LCOS) of 164–195 USD per MWh delivered, if 2030 performance targets are met. These values undercut 2024 prices for stationary lithium-ion systems, and increasing cell capacity to 1.1 kWh or enlarging modules to 15,360 cells lowers LCOS by up to 30%, competitive with leading 4-hour lithium-ion forecasts. Sensitivity analysis shows manufacturing scale and inactive-material reduction outweigh raw-material price in driving cost, challenging the view that cheap zinc alone guarantees competitiveness. Our results provide a clear R&D roadmap and position sodium‑zinc batteries as a mineral-lean complement to lithium-ion for reliable, long-duration, grid-scale energy storage.
-
Journal articleZurbriggen T, Brazzola N, Odenweller A, et al., 2026,
Short-term action is key for gigaton-scale Direct Air Capture by 2050.
, Nat CommunDirect Air Capture (DAC) is widely considered essential for achieving net-zero and net-negative emissions, yet its potential to scale to climate-relevant levels remains uncertain. Here we show that the future deployment of DAC depends primarily on early capacity expansion and growth dynamics rather than on long-term demand targets alone. Using a probabilistic technology diffusion model informed by historical analog technologies and uncertain future demand, we explore a wide range of possible global DAC deployment pathways to 2050. We find that if DAC follows growth trajectories similar to ammonia synthesis technologies and liquefied natural gas, deployment is likely to remain at the megaton scale by mid-century. However, gigaton-scale deployment becomes plausible under rapid growth and strong early policy support. Our results identify short-term capacity expansion as the most effective lever for accelerating DAC deployment and highlight the critical importance of timely policy action to avoid overreliance on future large-scale carbon removal.
-
Journal articleMonroy Gomez S, Jansen M, 2026,
Risks, Rates, and Rays: Domestic financing shapes Brazil's utility-scale solar PV costs in regulated auctions
, Energy Economics, Vol: 157, ISSN: 0140-9883Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the fastest growing electricity source by capacity, with global additions reaching 600 GW in 2024. At the same time, rising interest rates adversely affect solar PV's competitiveness. This study examines the financial dynamics of Brazil's solar energy sector, focusing on how financing conditions impact the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar PV projects. We estimate the nominal after-tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for solar PV projects in Brazil, calculate the nominal LCOE for projects awarded in energy auctions from 2014 to 2022. We build the WACC from observable domestic, public financing instruments and combine it with auction-specific costs to decompose LCOE for 195 awarded projects. This market is 36% of cumulative capacity and 10% of construction volume in 2024.Brazil's WACC is significantly higher than in advanced economies, and our monthly, nominal after tax WACC series indicates values in the range of 10%–15%. Despite a 35% decline in capital expenditures (CAPEX) over the study period, financing costs increased from 47% of total project costs in 2014 to 62% in 2022, offsetting cost reductions and limiting LCOE decreases. Our novel intra-annual (monthly) WACC captures short-term macro-financial fluctuations. These findings highlight the critical role of macro-financial stability and access to competitive domestic debt for auctioned utility-scale PV in Brazil and capital-market design in other emerging markets.
-
Journal articlePrieto Melo DA, Hoffmann C, Staffell I, et al., 2026,
From shine to decline: Degradation of over 1 million solar photovoltaic systems in Germany
, Energy Economics, Vol: 157, ISSN: 0140-9883Solar photovoltaic systems are central to the future of electricity production worldwide. However, their performance degrades with age. The rate of decline in real-world usage critically affects the financial viability and carbon mitigation potential of photovoltaic installations. Earlier studies are typically limited by small sample sizes or short observation periods, and limited treatment of a potential non-linear relationship to environmental factors. This study uses high-dimensional fixed-effects panel regression encompassing up to 16 years of data from over 1 million solar installations in Germany (34 GW of capacity). Key robustness checks, including separate regressions for a self-consumption subsample and sensitivity analysis for air pollution, confirm the reliability of the estimates. The Findings show that power production falls by an average of 0.59% per year. Degradation rates decrease with age, with system output declining between 7% and 13% slower at age 10 than when new, and are one-third higher for larger installations (> 30 kW<inf>p</inf>). Output is significantly affected by environmental variables. Each day of extreme heat or cold and each microgram of particulate matter reduce annual output by 0.038–0.101%. Heat-related degradation intensifies over time, while cold and pollution have stronger effects on newer installations. By providing robust evidence from a population several orders of magnitude larger than previous studies, this study supports improved economic and environmental forecasts and strategic planning for global solar energy expansion. Back of the envelope, the estimated cost of degradation would compared to average literature results decrease by about €638 million p.a. to maintain installed capacity in 2040.
-
Journal articlePrütz R, Rogelj J, Ganti G, et al., 2026,
Author Correction: Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal (Nature Climate Change, (2026), 16, 2, (155-163), 10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5)
, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1758-678XCorrection to: Nature Climate Changehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5, published online 30 January 2026. In the originally published version of this article, the description of the illustrative indication of effect direction required further detail. In the assessed scenarios, the deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) partly occurs outside the bounds of the maximum biomass plantation potential map, which we used for our illustrative effect indication. In such cases, it cannot be inferred whether BECCS would be potentially beneficial or likely harmful. In our analysis, we accounted for this fact by refraining from making any indication for effect direction outside of the maximum biomass potential map. For readers, however, this approach may not have been immediately clear. To clarify this aspect, in the Methods, the second sentence of the third paragraph in the section “Biodiversity-sensitive CDR deployment areas” was expanded to now read: “If scenario-based bioenergy cropland occurs in places that are not within the constrained BECCS potential areas, we indicated ‘likely harmful’ outcomes as this would interfere with biosphere integrity – no such indication was made outside the maximum biomass plantation map due to unclear effect direction.” In the Supplementary Information section SI-F, we modified the fifth and sixth sentences to now read: “Unsurprisingly, the reduction in land available for CDR deployment decreases if areas that could potentially benefit from CDR deployment are not excluded from allocation. Nevertheless, applying the three exclusion criteria while allowing CDR deployment in areas that could potentially benefit from CDR deployment still results in a substantial reduction in CDR land.” In line with the changes described above, we updated the text in the panels and captions of Figs. S11 and 12. The implemented changes do not affect the findings and conclusions of
-
Journal articleScheifinger K, Brutschin E, Mintz-Woo K, et al., 2026,
Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios
, npj Climate Action, ISSN: 2731-9814Collective climate action hinges on the distribution of benefits and burdens of climate change mitigation. Yet assumptions relevant to distributional justice are frequently made only implicitly in climate change mitigation scenarios. Here, we introduce the patterns of distributional justice framework that operationalizes philosophical justice theories as quantitative requirements for scenario trajectories. We then apply this framework to the IPCC AR6 scenario database to assess the distributional implications of global climate change mitigation scenarios across world regions. Focusing on scenario variables related to energy and meat consumption, we found a diversity of patterns of justice across scenario characteristics. The prioritarian perspective, which prioritizes improvements to those currently worse off, emerged as the most dominant pattern of justice. By contrast, futures with limited or reduced energy and meat consumption were the least represented in the database. Our research further indicates that most scenarios consistent with patterns of justice do not explicitly aim to model more just futures, suggesting that underlying scenario narratives – most often SSP2 – largely determine the distributional outcomes. We therefore propose a stakeholder engagement strategy to make distributional justice assumptions in scenario development ex-ante more diverse and transparent. Overall, this study provides a practical avenue for developing justice-conscious scenarios that may be more likely to motivate collective climate action.
-
Journal articleWang Y, Warder SC, Benmoufok EF, et al., 2026,
Geographic variability in reanalysis wind speed biases: A high-resolution bias correction approach for UK wind energy
, Energy Conversion and Management, Vol: 352, ISSN: 0196-8904Reanalysis datasets have become indispensable tools for wind resource assessment and wind power simulation, offering long-term and spatially continuous wind fields across large regions. However, they inherently contain systematic wind speed biases arising from various factors, including simplified physical parameterizations, observational uncertainties, and limited spatial resolution. Among these, low spatial resolution poses a particular challenge for capturing local variability accurately. Whereas prevailing industry practice generally relies on either no bias correction or coarse, nationally uniform adjustments, we extend and thoroughly analyse a recently proposed spatially resolved, cluster-based bias correction framework. This approach is designed to better account for local heterogeneity and is applied to 319 wind farms across the United Kingdom to evaluate its effectiveness. Results show that this method reduced monthly wind power simulation errors by more than 32% compared to the uncorrected ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The method is further applied to the MERRA-2 dataset for comparative evaluation, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness for different reanalysis products. In contrast to prior studies, which rarely quantify the influence of topography on reanalysis biases, this research presents a detailed spatial mapping of bias correction factors across the UK. The analysis reveals that for wind energy applications, ERA5 wind speed errors exhibit strong spatial variability, with the most significant underestimations in the Scottish Highlands and mountainous areas of Wales. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for geographic variability when correcting reanalysis wind speeds, and provide new insights into region-specific bias patterns relevant for high-resolution wind energy modelling.
-
OtherAl Khourdajie A, Ju Y, Meng M, et al., 2026,
No room for backsliding: Assessing the ambition floor of the COP28 agreement
<jats:p>The 2023 UAE Consensus (COP28) marked a watershed in global climate governance, committing parties for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” Yet the text’s constructive ambiguity leaves the operational content of this commitment uncertain. Four categories of ambiguity emerge: whether transitioning away applies uniformly globally or presupposes differentiated regional responsibilities; whether “net zero energy systems” encompasses industrial processes or only energy supply and demand; whether “mid-century” net zero must be achieved exactly by 2050 or permits some delay; and whether net zero refers to CO2 alone or all GHG. Here we assess whether any plausible interpretation permits policy retrenchment. We benchmark COP28 commitments against IPCC AR6 1.5°C-consistent pathways and develop bespoke scenarios using the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model to stress-test each ambiguity dimension. We find that targets for tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency exceed the median of cost-optimal pathways assessed by the IPCC. Across all tested configurations, reduced fossil fuel output dominates emission reductions (>90%), with carbon capture and storage serving a strictly secondary role (</jats:p>
-
OtherBeaulieu JO, Theokritoff E, Quilcaille Y, et al., 2026,
Evidence for corporate climate accountability: Integrating science, law, and policy
<jats:p>Recent developments in climate science, law, and policy are reshaping debates over corporate responsibility for climate change. International advisory opinions, landmark domestic court decisions, and emerging regulatory frameworks (binding and non-binding) increasingly recognize that corporate actors may bear backward-looking responsibility for climate harms linked to historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, forward-looking duties to reduce emissions, and obligations to disclose accurate and substantiated climate-related information. At the same time, scientific research has made considerable progress in attributing climate impacts to individual emitters, developing firm-level transition pathways, and evaluating corporate climate claims, prompting claims that the scientific basis for corporate climate accountability is now largely settled.Here, we argue that while existing scientific evidence has proven sufficient in some legal settings, further developments could more precisely articulate causal relationships and legal duties (for example with respect to corporate emission-reduction targets) and provide additional technical clarity for judicial adjudication. We examine backward-looking “polluter pays” claims, highlighting unresolved challenges related to emissions accounting choices. We also assess the need for individualized and legally cognizable impact data, as well as the alignment of climate attribution methods. We then analyse forward-looking corporate responsibility, focusing on the challenges related to the translation of global climate targets into firm-level emissions-reduction pathways and corporate responsibility in climate communications. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to support well-informed adjudication in the context of corporate climate accountability.</jats:p>
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Otto F, Rogelj J, et al., 2026,
Global quantification of subnational vulnerability drivers of human impacts from extreme weather events
<jats:p>Granular socioeconomic vulnerability drivers of impacts during extreme weather events remain poorly understood. Global climate vulnerability indices are usually only available at the national level, and the reporting of observed impacts is still unsystematic. By combining human impact data reported at subnational levels from the international disaster database EM-DAT and the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index, we ask ourselves whether the granularity of this data can be used to improve our understanding of disaster outcomes and in turn help to identify adaptation priorities. Here, we quantitatively show that higher multidimensional deprivation leads to larger human impacts per people exposed during floods, storms and droughts between 2010-2020. Due to gaps in EM-DAT reporting, these conclusions cannot be drawn for heatwaves, wildfires and landslides. Our global spatial analysis reveals that subnational areas more deprived than respective national means experience larger human impacts (for floods), while very local variability in deprivation (∼1 km spatial resolution) leads to lower impacts. The multidimensionality of the deprivation index allows to identify concrete socioeconomic factors that can be more effectively addressed, such as the levels of health or the specific age distribution of a population. While improvements are still needed to fully quantify the complex nature of climate vulnerability and rigorously track impacts from extreme weather events, understanding the main socioeconomic factors driving vulnerability at local levels allows to support policies, strategically plan adaptation and address losses and damages through tailored approaches.</jats:p>
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.