Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic. This page provides an overview of all publications by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. This includes papers based on the online reports.

Peer reviewed

HA Thompson, N Imai, A Dighe et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of Travel Medicine; 24-08-2020, doi: 

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker et al. Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 18-08-2020, doi: 

RN Thompson, TD Hollingsworth, V Isham et al. Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. Proceedings of the Royal Society London, 12-08-2020, doi:

CA Prete, L Buss, A Dighe et al. Serial interval distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil. Journal of Travel Medicine, 25-07-2020, doi: 

D Armstrong-James, J Youngs, T Bicanic et al. Confronting and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis (CAPA). European Respiratory Journal, 23-07-2020,

M Skovdal, MR Pickles, TB Hallettt et al. Complexities to consider when communicating risk of COVID-19. Public Health, 23-07-2020. doi:

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KEC Ainslie et al. Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome Open Research; 17-07-2020, doi:

AB Hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. Lancet Global Health; 13-07-2020, doi:

FG Sandman, PJ White, M Ramsay et al. Optimising benefits of testing key workers for infection with SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 08-07-2020, doi:

E Lavezzo, E Frachnin, C Ciavarella et al. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’. Nature; 30-06-2020, doi:

PT Walker, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science; 12-06-2020, doi:  

S. Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandi et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature; 08-06-2020, published online.

KEC Ainslie, CE Walters, H Fu et al. Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Wellcome Open Research; 28-04-2020, 5:81, doi:

R Verity, LC Okell, I Dorigatti et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases; 30-03-2020, doi:


NTD Modelling Consortium. The potential impact of programmes interruptions due to COVID-19 on 7 neglected tropical diseases: a modelling-based analysisGates Open Res;  17-07-2020. doi:

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. medRxiv; 14-07-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Aindsly, O Eales et al. Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England during May 2020: REACT study. medRxiv; 11-07-2020, doi:

S Mishra, T Berah, TA Mellan et al. On the derivation of the renewal equation from anage-dependent branching process: an epidemic modellingperspective. ArXiv Quantitative Biology - population and evolution; 30-06-2020, arXiv: 2006.16487 

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome Open Research; 15-06-2020, doi:

BL Jewell, JA Smith, TB Hallett. The Potential Impact of Interruptions to HIV Services: A Modelling Case Study for South Africa. medRxiv; 27-04-2020, doi:  

CJ Atchison, L Bowman, C Vrinten, et al. Perceptions and behavioural responses of the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey of UK Adults. medRxiv; 03-04-2020, doi:   

N Imai, KAM Gaythorpe, S Abbott  et al. Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome Open Research; 02-04-2020, 5:59, doi:

E Volz, H Fu, H Wang et al. Genomic epidemiology of a densely sampled COVID19 outbreak in China. medRxiv; 19-03-2020, doi:


RM Anderson, TD Hollingsworth, RF Baggaley, R Maddren, C Vegvari. COVID-19 spread in the UK: the end of the beginning? The Lancet, 03-08-2020; doi:

A Broadbent, D Walker, K Chalkidou et al. Lockdown is not egalitarian: the costs fall on the global poor. The Lancet, 19-06-2020; doi:

A Daunt, PN Perez-Guzman, F Liew et al. Validity of the UK early access to medicines scheme criteria for Remdesivir use in patients with COVID-19 disease. Journal of Infection, 20-06-2020; doi:

LC Okell, R Verity, OJ Watson et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? The Lancet; 11-06-2020, doi:

R Verity, LC Okell, I Dorigatti et al. COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data – Authors' reply. The Lancet; 28-05-2020, doi:

Online reports

M Monod, A Blenkinsop, X Xi et al. Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Imperial College London; 17-09-2020, doi:

OJ Watson, M Alhaffar, Z Mehchy et al. Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria. Imperial College London; 15-09-2020, doi:

H Fu, X Xi, H Wang et al. The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China. Imperial College London; 03-07-2020, doi:

MAC Vollmer, S Radhakrishnan, MD Kont et al. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. Imperial College London; 01-07-2020, doi:

G Forchini, A Lochen, T Hallett et al. Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020. Imperial College London; 18-06-2020, doi:

R McCabe, N Schmit, P Christen et al. Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Imperial College London; 15-06-2020, doi:

P. Nouvellet, S Bhatia, A Cori et al. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Imperial College London; 08-06-2020, doi: 

A Dighe, L Cattarino, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. Imperial College London; 29-05-2020, doi:

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KE Ainslie et al. Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK. Imperial College London; 29-05-2020, doi:

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Imperial College London; 21-05-2020, doi:

P Winskill, C Whittaker, P Walker et al. Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries. Imperial College London; 12-05-2020, doi:

TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra et al. Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil. Imperial College London; 08-05-2020, doi:

MAC Vollmer, S Mishra, HJT Unwin et al. Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios. Imperial College London; 04-05-2020, doi:

AR hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Imperial College London; 01-05-2020, doi:

E Sherrard-Smith, AB Hogan, A Hamlet et al. The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. Imperial College London;01-05-2020, doi:

PN Perez-Guzman, A Daunt, S Mukherjee et al. Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study. Imperial College London; 29-04-2020, doi:

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker, PJ White et al. Role of testing in COIVD-19 control. Imperial College London; 23-04-2020. doi:

P Christen, J C D’Aeth, A Løchen et al. Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic. Imperial College London; 17-04-2020. doi:

P Pristerà, V Papageorgiou, M Kaur et al. Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective. Imperial College London; 03-04-2020. doi:   

S Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandy et al. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London; 30-03-2020. doi:

PGT Walker, C Whittaker, O Watson et al. The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. Imperial College London; 26-03-2020 doi:

KEC Ainslie, C Walters, H Fu et al. Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Imperial College London; 24-03-2020. doi:

C Atchison, L Bowman, JW Eaton et al. Public Response to UK Government Recommendations on COVID-19: Population Survey, 17-18 March 2020. Imperial College London; 20-03-2020. doi:  

NM Ferguson, D Laydon, G Nedjati-Gilani et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College London; 16-03-2020. doi:  

K Gaythorpe, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Symptom progression of COVID-19. Imperial College London; 11-03-2020. doi:

H Thompson, N Imai, Amy Dighe et al. Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights. Imperial College London; 09-03-2020. doi:

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Relative sensitivity of international surveillance. Imperial College London; 21-02-2020. doi:  

E Volz, M Baguelin, S Bhatia et al. Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2. Imperial College London; 15-02-2020. doi:   

I Dorigatti, L Okell, A Cori et al. Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV). Imperial College London; 10-02-2020. doi:   

N Imai, A Cori, I Dorigatti, M Baguelin, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. Imperial College London; 25-01-2020. doi:

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. Imperial College London; 22-01-2020. doi:     

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. Imperial College London; 17-01-2020. doi: