BibTex format

author = {Miraldo, M and Silva, F and Gregorio, M and Cruz-e-Silva, D and Severo, M and Nogueira, P and Nunes, A and Graça, P and Lopes, C and Breda, J and Allen, L and Wickramasinghe, K and Darzi, A and Mikkelsen, B and Araújo, F},
journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization},
title = {Modelling the impact of a food industry co-regulation agreement on Portugal’s non-communicable disease mortality},
url = {},

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - ObjectiveIn this paper we model the reduction in premature mortality associated with Noncommunicacle Diseases as a result of the establishment of a co-regulation agreement between the Portuguese Ministry of Health and the Portuguese food industry. We also assess whether Portugal is on track to meet the international targets of reducing baseline 2010 premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. We also aimed to model the impact of the industry co-regulation agreement on premature mortality.MethodsThe 2015co-regulation agreement agreement between the Portuguese food industry and the Portuguese government sets targets of reducing sugar by 20%, salt content by 16% (30% for bread), and <2g trans fatty acids per 100g of fat in a range of products by 2021. The WHO Europe-endorsed PRIME modelling tool was used to estimate the number of Noncommunicacle Diseases deaths that would be averted if these reformulation targets were fully met in the year 2016. Using data on population structure, Noncommunicacle Diseases mortality, and dietary intake from the Portuguese Directorate General of Health, we calculated the actual trends on premature mortality probability for Noncommunicacle Diseases, and projected future trends using regression modelling. FindingsThe risk of premature Noncommunicacle Diseases mortality fell from 13.9% to 10.9% between 2000-2010 but remained relatively unchanged up until 2016. We project that the risk will rise to 11.0% by 2030. If the industry reformulation targets are met we estimate reductions in salt intake of around 7%; total energy reductions from 1,911Kcal/day to 1,897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and reductions in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans fat intake. The PRIME modelling tool calculates that this consumption profile would have resulted in 873 fewer Noncommunicacle Diseases deaths (95%CI 483–1,107) and 247 fewer premature Noncommunicacle Diseases
AU - Miraldo,M
AU - Silva,F
AU - Gregorio,M
AU - Cruz-e-Silva,D
AU - Severo,M
AU - Nogueira,P
AU - Nunes,A
AU - Graça,P
AU - Lopes,C
AU - Breda,J
AU - Allen,L
AU - Wickramasinghe,K
AU - Darzi,A
AU - Mikkelsen,B
AU - Araújo,F
SN - 0042-9686
TI - Modelling the impact of a food industry co-regulation agreement on Portugal’s non-communicable disease mortality
T2 - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
UR -
ER -