Imperial College London

DrAnneCori

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3229a.cori

 
 
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Location

 

G27Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

40 results found

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, EUROSURVEILLANCE, Vol: 22, Pages: 10-13, ISSN: 1560-7917

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

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Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2017, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence., Epidemics

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen "future" simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes - other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals - that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ratmann O, Hodcroft EB, Pickles M, Cori A, Hall M, Lycett S, Colijn C, Dearlove B, Didelot X, Frost S, Hossain ASMM, Joy JB, Kendall M, Kuhnert D, Leventhal GE, Liang R, Plazzotta G, Poon AFY, Rasmussen DA, Stadler T, Volz E, Weis C, Brown AJL, Fraser Cet al., 2017, Phylogenetic Tools for Generalized HIV-1 Epidemics: Findings from the PANGEA-HIV Methods Comparison, MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, Vol: 34, Pages: 185-203, ISSN: 0737-4038

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Thomas R, Burger R, Harper A, Kanema S, Mwenge L, Vanqa N, Bell-Mandla N, Smith PC, Floyd S, Bock P, Ayles H, Beyers N, Donnell D, Fidler S, Hayes R, Hauck Ket al., 2017, Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 5, Pages: E1133-E1141, ISSN: 2214-109X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Borquez A, Cori A, Pufall EL, Kasule J, Slaymaker E, Price A, Elmes J, Zaba B, Crampin AC, Kagaayi J, Lutalo T, Urassa M, Gregson S, Hallett TBet al., 2016, The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cori A, 2016, Of germs and men., Nat Microbiol, Vol: 1

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Heffernan A, Barber E, Thomas R, Fraser C, Pickles M, Cori Aet al., 2016, Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Point-Of-Care CD4 Testing on the HIV Epidemic in South Africa, PLOS ONE, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Herbeck JT, Mittler JE, Gottlieb GS, Goodreau SM, Murphy JT, Cori A, Pickles M, Fraser Cet al., 2016, Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study, VIRUS EVOLUTION, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2057-1577

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Vegvari C, Hadjichrysanthou C, Cauet E, Lawrence E, Cori A, de Wolf F, Anderson RMet al., 2016, How Can Viral Dynamics Models Inform Endpoint Measures in Clinical Trials of Therapies for Acute Viral Infections?, PLOS ONE, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2015, Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 372, Pages: 1274-1277, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Bezemer D, Cori A, Ratmann O, van Sighem A, Hermanides HS, Dutilh BE, Gras L, Faria NR, van den Hengel R, Duits AJ, Reiss P, de Wolf F, Fraser Cet al., 2015, Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cori A, Pickles M, van Sighem A, Gras L, Bezemer D, Reiss P, Fraser Cet al., 2015, CD4(+) cell dynamics in untreated HIV-1 infection: overall rates, and effects of age, viral load, sex and calendar time, AIDS, Vol: 29, Pages: 2435-2446, ISSN: 0269-9370

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Eaton JW, Bacaer N, Bershteyn A, Cambiano V, Cori A, Dorrington RE, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Hontelez JAC, Johnson LF, Klein DJ, Phillips AN, Pretorius C, Stover J, Rehle TM, Hallett TBet al., 2015, Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 3, Pages: E598-E608, ISSN: 2214-109X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Hayes R, Fidler S, Cori A, Fraser C, Floyd S, Ayles H, Beyers N, El-Sadr Wet al., 2015, HIV Treatment-As-Prevention Research: Taking the Right Road at the Crossroads, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernan MAet al., 2015, Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics, NATURE, Vol: 528, Pages: S109-S116, ISSN: 0028-0836

JOURNAL ARTICLE

O'Reilly KM, Cori A, Durry E, Wadood MZ, Bosan A, Aylward RB, Grassly NCet al., 2015, A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 182, Pages: 961-970, ISSN: 0002-9262

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Tong SYC, Holden MTG, Nickerson EK, Cooper BS, Koeser CU, Cori A, Jombart T, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Wuthiekanun V, Thaipadungpanit J, Hongsuwan M, Day NP, Limmathurotsakul D, Parkhill J, Peacock SJet al., 2015, Genome sequencing defines phylogeny and spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a high transmission setting, GENOME RESEARCH, Vol: 25, Pages: 111-118, ISSN: 1088-9051

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, 2015, West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year - Slowing but Not Yet under Control, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 372, Pages: 584-587, ISSN: 0028-4793

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Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, Bertherat E, Bilivogui P, Blake I, Brennan R, Briand S, Chakauya JM, Chitala K, Conteh RM, Cori A, Croisier A, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Formenty P, Fuhrer C, Fukuda K, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gbanyan S, Graaff P, Heleze E, Jambai A, Jombart T, Kasolo F, Kadiobo AM, Keita S, Kertesz D, Kone M, Lane C, Markoff J, Massaquoi M, Mills H, Mulba JM, Musa E, Myhre J, Nasidi A, Nilles E, Nouvellet P, Nshimirimana D, Nuttall I, Nyenswah T, Olu O, Pendergast S, Perea W, Polonsky J, Riley S, Ronveaux O, Sakoba K, Krishnan RSG, Senga M, Shuaib F, Van Kerkhove MD, Vaz R, Kannangarage NW, Yoti Zet al., 2014, Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 371, Pages: 1481-1495, ISSN: 0028-4793

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Cori A, Ayles H, Beyers N, Schaap A, Floyd S, Sabapathy K, Eaton JW, Hauck K, Smith P, Griffith S, Moore A, Donnell D, Vermund SH, Fidler S, Hayes R, Fraser Cet al., 2014, HPTN 071 (PopART): A Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Population Impact of an HIV Combination Prevention Intervention Including Universal Testing and Treatment: Mathematical Model, PLOS ONE, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1932-6203

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bakker R, Baernighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily M-C, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mikkelsen E, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DAMC, de Vlas SJ, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Blandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Shaffer N, Easterbrook PJ, Hirnschall G, Hallett TBet al., 2014, Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: E23-E34, ISSN: 2214-109X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bakker R, Bärnighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily M-C, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mikkelsen E, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DAMC, de Vlas SJ, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Blandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Shaffer N, Easterbrook PJ, Hirnschall G, Hallett TBet al., 2014, Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models., Lancet Glob Health, Vol: 2, Pages: e23-e34

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. METHODS: We used several independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)-to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Jombart T, Aanensen DM, Baguelin M, Birrell P, Cauchemez S, Camacho A, Colijn C, Collins C, Cori A, Didelot X, Fraser C, Frost S, Hens N, Hugues J, Hohle M, Opatowski L, Rambautm A, Ratmann O, Soubeyrand S, Suchard MA, Wallinga J, Ypma R, Ferguso Net al., 2014, OutbreakTools: A new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 7, Pages: 28-34, ISSN: 1755-4365

JOURNAL ARTICLE

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