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@article{Eaton:2015:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7,
author = {Eaton, JW and Bacaer, N and Bershteyn, A and Cambiano, V and Cori, A and Dorrington, RE and Fraser, C and Gopalappa, C and Hontelez, JAC and Johnson, LF and Klein, DJ and Phillips, AN and Pretorius, C and Stover, J and Rehle, TM and Hallett, TB},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7},
journal = {Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e598--e608},
title = {Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundMathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012.MethodsWe compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15–49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey.FindingsAll models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5–20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI −0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI −0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15–24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54–2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73–2·71).InterpretationProjec
AU  - Eaton,JW
AU  - Bacaer,N
AU  - Bershteyn,A
AU  - Cambiano,V
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Dorrington,RE
AU  - Fraser,C
AU  - Gopalappa,C
AU  - Hontelez,JAC
AU  - Johnson,LF
AU  - Klein,DJ
AU  - Phillips,AN
AU  - Pretorius,C
AU  - Stover,J
AU  - Rehle,TM
AU  - Hallett,TB
DO  - 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7
EP  - 608
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 2214-109X
SP  - 598
TI  - Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era
T2  - Lancet Global Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/33879
VL  - 3
ER  -

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