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@article{Lessler:2016:aje/kwv452,
author = {Lessler, J and Salje, H and van, Kerkhove M and Collins, C},
doi = {aje/kwv452},
journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
pages = {657--663},
title = {Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452},
volume = {183},
year = {2016}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.
AU  - Lessler,J
AU  - Salje,H
AU  - van,Kerkhove M
AU  - Collins,C
DO  - aje/kwv452
EP  - 663
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 1476-6256
SP  - 657
TI  - Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
T2  - American Journal of Epidemiology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv452
VL  - 183
ER  -

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