Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor the Lord Darzi of Denham PC KBE FRS FMedSci HonFREng

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Surgery & Cancer

Co-Director of the IGHI, Professor of Surgery
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3312 1310a.darzi

 
 
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Location

 

Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Wing (QEQM)St Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Goiana-da-Silva:2019:10.2471/BLT.18.220566,
author = {Goiana-da-Silva, F and Cruz-E-Silva, D and Allen, L and Gregório, MJ and Severo, M and Nogueira, PJ and Nunes, AM and Graça, P and Lopes, C and Miraldo, M and Breda, J and Wickramasinghe, K and Darzi, A and Araújo, F and Mikkelsen, B},
doi = {10.2471/BLT.18.220566},
journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization},
pages = {450--459},
title = {Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.18.220566},
volume = {97},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Objective: To model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met. Methods: The 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015-2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990-2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030. Findings: If reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015-2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021. Conclusion: The co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.
AU  - Goiana-da-Silva,F
AU  - Cruz-E-Silva,D
AU  - Allen,L
AU  - Gregório,MJ
AU  - Severo,M
AU  - Nogueira,PJ
AU  - Nunes,AM
AU  - Graça,P
AU  - Lopes,C
AU  - Miraldo,M
AU  - Breda,J
AU  - Wickramasinghe,K
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Araújo,F
AU  - Mikkelsen,B
DO  - 10.2471/BLT.18.220566
EP  - 459
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0042-9686
SP  - 450
TI  - Modelling impacts of food industry co-regulation on noncommunicable disease mortality, Portugal
T2  - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.18.220566
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31258214
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/71406
VL  - 97
ER  -
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