Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor the Lord Darzi of Denham PC KBE FRS FMedSci HonFREng

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Surgery & Cancer

Co-Director of the IGHI, Professor of Surgery
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3312 1310a.darzi

 
 
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Location

 

Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Wing (QEQM)St Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2020:10.1101/2020.09.11.20192492,
author = {Riley, S and Ainslie, KEC and Eales, O and Walters, CE and Wang, H and Atchison, C and Fronterre, C and Diggle, PJ and Ashby, D and Donnelly, CA and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
doi = {10.1101/2020.09.11.20192492},
title = {Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: detection by community antigen surveillance},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.20192492},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - <jats:title>Summary</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Based on cases and deaths, transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in England peaked in late March and early April 2020 and then declined until the end of June. Since the start of July, cases have increased, while deaths have continued to decrease.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We report results from 594,000 swabs tested for SARS-CoV-2 virus obtained from a representative sample of people in England over four rounds collected regardless of symptoms, starting in May 2020 and finishing at the beginning of September 2020. Swabs for the most recent two rounds were taken between 24th July and 11th August and for round 4 between 22nd August and 7th September. We estimate weighted overall prevalence, doubling times between and within rounds and associated reproduction numbers. We obtained unweighted prevalence estimates by sub-groups: age, sex, region, ethnicity, key worker status, household size, for which we also estimated odds of infection. We identified clusters of swab-positive participants who were closer, on average, to other swab-positive participants than would be expected.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings</jats:title><jats:p>Over all four rounds of the study, we found that 72% (67%, 76%) of swab-positive individuals were asymptomatic at the time of swab and in the week prior. The epidemic declined between rounds 1 and 2, and rounds 2 and 3. However, the epidemic was increasing between rounds 3 and 4, with a doubling time of 17 (13, 23) days corresponding to an R value of 1.3 (1.2, 1.4). When analysing round 3 alone, we found that the epidemic had started to grow again with 93% probability. Using only the most recent round 4 data, we estimated a doubling time of 7.7 (5.5, 12.7) days, corresponding to an R value of 1.7 (1.4, 2.0). Cy
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,PJ
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
DO  - 10.1101/2020.09.11.20192492
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: detection by community antigen surveillance
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.20192492
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83635
ER  -
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