Imperial College London

DrAbbasDehghan

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Reader in Cardiometabolic Disease Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3347a.dehghan CV

 
 
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Location

 

157Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Zhou:2016:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8,
author = {Zhou, B and Lu, Y and Hajifathalian, K and Bentham, J and Di, Cesare M and Danaei, G and Bixby, H and Cowan, MJ and Ali, MK and Taddei, C and Lo, W-C and Reis-Santos, B and Stevens, GA and Riley, LM and Miranda, JJ and Bjerregaard, P and Rivera, JA and Fouad, HM and Ma, G and Mbanya, JCN and McGarvey, ST and Mohan, V and Onat, A and Ramachandran, A and Ben, Romdhane H and Paciorek, CJ and Bennett, JE and Ezzati, M and Abdeen, ZA and Kadir, KA and Abu-Rmeileh, NM and Acosta-Cazares, B and Adams, R and Aekplakorn, W and Aguilar-Salinas, CA and Agyemang, C and Ahmadvand, A and Al-Othman, AR and Alkerwi, A and Amouyel, P and Amuzu, A and Andersen, LB and Anderssen, SA and Anjana, RM and Aounallah-Skhiri, H and Aris, T and Arlappa, N and Arveiler, D and Assah, FK and Avdicova, M and Azizi, F and Balakrishna, N and Bandosz, P and Barbagallo, CM and Barcelo, A and Batieha, AM and Baur, LA and Ben, Romdhane H and Benet, M and Bernabe-Ortiz, A and Bharadwaj, S and Bhargava, SK and Bi, Y and Bje},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8},
journal = {Lancet},
pages = {1513--1530},
title = {Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8},
volume = {387},
year = {2016}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - BackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalenc
AU - Zhou,B
AU - Lu,Y
AU - Hajifathalian,K
AU - Bentham,J
AU - Di,Cesare M
AU - Danaei,G
AU - Bixby,H
AU - Cowan,MJ
AU - Ali,MK
AU - Taddei,C
AU - Lo,W-C
AU - Reis-Santos,B
AU - Stevens,GA
AU - Riley,LM
AU - Miranda,JJ
AU - Bjerregaard,P
AU - Rivera,JA
AU - Fouad,HM
AU - Ma,G
AU - Mbanya,JCN
AU - McGarvey,ST
AU - Mohan,V
AU - Onat,A
AU - Ramachandran,A
AU - Ben,Romdhane H
AU - Paciorek,CJ
AU - Bennett,JE
AU - Ezzati,M
AU - Abdeen,ZA
AU - Kadir,KA
AU - Abu-Rmeileh,NM
AU - Acosta-Cazares,B
AU - Adams,R
AU - Aekplakorn,W
AU - Aguilar-Salinas,CA
AU - Agyemang,C
AU - Ahmadvand,A
AU - Al-Othman,AR
AU - Alkerwi,A
AU - Amouyel,P
AU - Amuzu,A
AU - Andersen,LB
AU - Anderssen,SA
AU - Anjana,RM
AU - Aounallah-Skhiri,H
AU - Aris,T
AU - Arlappa,N
AU - Arveiler,D
AU - Assah,FK
AU - Avdicova,M
AU - Azizi,F
AU - Balakrishna,N
AU - Bandosz,P
AU - Barbagallo,CM
AU - Barcelo,A
AU - Batieha,AM
AU - Baur,LA
AU - Ben,Romdhane H
AU - Benet,M
AU - Bernabe-Ortiz,A
AU - Bharadwaj,S
AU - Bhargava,SK
AU - Bi,Y
AU - Bjerregaard,P
AU - Bjertness,E
AU - Bjertness,MB
AU - Bjorkelund,C
AU - Blokstra,A
AU - Bo,S
AU - Boehm,BO
AU - Boissonnet,CP
AU - Bovet,P
AU - Brajkovich,I
AU - Breckenkamp,J
AU - Brenner,H
AU - Brewster,LM
AU - Brian,GR
AU - Bruno,G
AU - Bugge,A
AU - Cabrera,de Leon A
AU - Can,G
AU - Candido,APC
AU - Capuano,V
AU - Carlsson,AC
AU - Carvalho,MJ
AU - Casanueva,FF
AU - Casas,J-P
AU - Caserta,CA
AU - Castetbon,K
AU - Chamukuttan,S
AU - Chaturvedi,N
AU - Chen,C-J
AU - Chen,F
AU - Chen,S
AU - Cheng,C-Y
AU - Chetrit,A
AU - Chiou,S-T
AU - Cho,Y
AU - Chudek,J
AU - Cifkova,R
AU - Claessens,F
AU - Concin,H
AU - Cooper,C
AU - Cooper,R
AU - Costanzo,S
AU - Cottel,D
AU - Cowell,C
AU - Crujeiras,AB
AU - D'Arrigo,G
AU - Dallongeville,J
AU - Dankner,R
AU - Dauchet,L
AU - de,Gaetano G
AU - De,Henauw S
AU - Deepa,M
AU - Dehghan,A
AU - Deschamps,V
AU - Dhana,K
AU - Di,Castelnuovo AF
AU - Djalalinia,S
AU - Doua,K
AU - Drygas,W
AU - Du,Y
AU - Dzerve,V
AU - Egbagbe,EE
AU - Eggertsen,R
AU - El,Ati J
AU - Elosua,R
AU - Erasmus,RT
AU - Erem,C
AU - Ergor,G
AU - Eriksen,L
AU - Escobedo-de,la Pena J
AU - Fall,CH
AU - Farzadfar,F
AU - Felix-Redondo,FJ
AU - Ferguson,TS
AU - Fernandez-Berges,D
AU - Ferrari,M
AU - Ferreccio,C
AU - Feskens,EJM
AU - Finn,JD
AU - Foeger,B
AU - Foo,LH
AU - Forslund,A-S
AU - Fouad,HM
AU - Francis,DK
AU - Franco,MDC
AU - Franco,OH
AU - Frontera,G
AU - Furusawa,T
AU - Gaciong,Z
AU - Garnett,SP
AU - Gaspoz,J-M
AU - Gasull,M
AU - Gates,L
AU - Geleijnse,JM
AU - Ghasemian,A
AU - Ghimire,A
AU - Giampaoli,S
AU - Gianfagna,F
AU - Giovannelli,J
AU - Giwercman,A
AU - Gonzalez,Gross M
AU - Gonzalez,Rivas JP
AU - Bonet,Gorbea M
AU - Gottrand,F
AU - Grafnette
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
EP - 1530
PY - 2016///
SN - 1474-547X
SP - 1513
TI - Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants
T2 - Lancet
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/34235
VL - 387
ER -