Imperial College London

Emeritus ProfessorAndrewEvans

Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Emeritus Professor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

a.evans Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Mrs Maya Mistry +44 (0)20 7594 6100

 
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Location

 

406Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

116 results found

Evans AW, Hughes P, 2019, Traverses, delays and fatalities at railway level crossings in Great Britain, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol: 129, Pages: 66-75, ISSN: 0001-4575

This paper investigates relationships between traverses, delays and fatalities to road users at railway level crossings in Great Britain. A 'traverse' means a passage across a level crossing by a road user, who may be a pedestrian, cyclist, or occupant of a road vehicle. The paper finds that the road users with the highest fatality rate per traverse are pedestrians at passive crossings. Their rate is about three orders of magnitude higher than that of users with the lowest risk, who are road vehicle occupants at railway-controlled crossings. The paper considers the choice between automatic and railway-controlled crossings on public roads. Railway-controlled crossings are widely used in Britain. They are about one order of magnitude safer than automatic crossings, but they impose greater delays on users. A formula is developed to give the overall delay to road users at either type of crossing in terms of the numbers of road users and trains per day, and in terms of the length of time that the crossing must be closed to the road to allow the passage of one train. It is found that automatic level crossings cause substantially less delay than railway-controlled level crossings. The official monetary values of road user delay and of preventing a fatality were used to estimate the valuations of delays and fatalities at hypothetical but representative automatic and railway-controlled crossings. These valuations were then used to explore the effect of replacing representative railway-controlled with automatic crossings or vice-versa. It is found that the valuation of the reduced delays from adopting automatic crossings typically outweighs the valuation of the losses from the increased casualties. However, in practice Britain has chosen to retain a large number of railway-controlled crossings, which implies accepting the delays in return for a good level crossing safety record. Finally, an analysis is carried out to determine the additional risk of typical car and walk journ

Journal article

Evans AW, 2018, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2017

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Evans AW, 2018, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2017 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2017, based on fatal accident data over the 51-year period 1967 to 2017. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2017 for the tenth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.22 per year in 2016 to 0.20 in 2017. The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 0.89 in 2016 to 0.81 in 2017. There were two accidental fatal collisions between trains and road motor vehicles in 2017, each with one fatality. This was a poorer performance than the zero such accidents in 2015 and 2016, but it was in line with previous years. The estimated frequency of such accidents was 1.77 per year in 2017, compared with 1.80in 2016, with 2.45 fatalities per year in 2017 compared with 2.51 in 2016. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 7.2% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.6% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of these estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated more fatalities per year than this paper.

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Evans AW, 2017, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2016

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe’s main line railways from 1980 to 2016. The paper is one of an annual series starting with 1980 to 2009. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2016, together with Norway and Switzerland. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is –5.3% per year from 1990 to 2016, with a 95% confidence interval of –7.0% to -3.7%. The estimated accident rate in 2016 is 1.07 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, which represents a fall of 73% since 1990. This gives an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2016 of 4.7. The actual number offatal train collisions and derailments in 2016 was 6, which is fairly close to the trend. The estimated mean number of fatalities in 2016 was 20.4, but the actual number was 51, which is well above its mean. That is because some accidents in 2016 were unusually severe, including accidents with 12 and 23 fatalities. This contrasts with 2015, in which the number of fatalities was 5 from 4 fatal accidents. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of severe accidents at level crossings fell only slowly and not statistically significantly in 1990-2016.

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Evans AW, 2017, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2016 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2016, based on fatal accident data over the 50-year period 1967 to 2016. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2016 for the ninth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.26 per year in 2015 to 0.22 in 2016. The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 1.01 in 2015 to 0.89 in 2016. There were no accidental fatal collisions between trains and road motor vehicles in 2016 for the second calendar year in succession. That leads to an estimated frequency of 1.80 such accidents per year in 2016, compared with 2.03 in 2015, with 2.51 fatalities per year in 2016 compared with 2.83 in 2015. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 7.2% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.6% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of these estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated more fatalities per year than this paper

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