My research combines the use of mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the transmission dynamics and control of a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. The focus of my research is applied, developing both simple compartmental models and more complex individual-based models, to explore the impact of interventions and to help guide policy. In the past I have worked on a wide range of infectious diseases, including BSE and vCJD, sexually transmitted infections including HIV, and SARS.
The main focus of my current research is to develop models that can inform policies on how, where and when to implement different interventions against malaria to aid local elimination, and eventual eradication, of the parasite. See our malaria research group pages for further details.
I am interested in science communication and am in regular contact with the Science Media Centre and Sense About Science. I also give talks in schools on infectious diseases and the use of mathematical models.
Current Research Group
Dr Michael Bretscher (MMV-funded Research Associate)
Dr Hannah Slater (BMGF-funded Research Associate)
Dr Bob Verity (MVI-funded Research Associate)
Dr Paddy Brock (MVI-funded Research Associate)
Ms Lindsey Wu (BMGF-funded Research Assistant)
Ms Alison Reynolds (Project Manager)
Former Group Members
Dr Grace Kwong
Dr Sandy Wai-Lee Lam
I teach on Imperial College's short course on Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases. This is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods.
Short course on Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases: www.infectiousdiseasemodels.org
et al., 2015, Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:15, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:825-832
et al., 2016, Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:16, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:465-472
et al., 2015, Expanding the role of diagnostic and prognostic tools for infectious diseases in resource-poor settings INTRODUCTION, Nature, Vol:528, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:S50-S52
et al., 2015, Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies, Nature, Vol:528, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:S94-S101
et al., 2015, Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:15, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:1450-1458
et al., 2011, Efficacy model for antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol:278, ISSN:0962-8452, Pages:1298-1305
et al., 2010, Reducing Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission in Africa: A Model-Based Evaluation of Intervention Strategies, Plos Medicine, Vol:7, ISSN:1549-1676
et al., 2010, Interpreting Tuberculin Skin Tests in a Population With a High Prevalence of HIV, Tuberculosis, and Nonspecific Tuberculin Sensitivity, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol:171, ISSN:0002-9262, Pages:1037-1045
et al., 2010, A Bayesian Approach to Quantifying the Effects of Mass Poultry Vaccination upon the Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam, PLOS Computational Biology, Vol:6, ISSN:1553-734X
et al., 2009, Loss of Population Levels of Immunity to Malaria as a Result of Exposure-Reducing Interventions: Consequences for Interpretation of Disease Trends, PLOS One, Vol:4, ISSN:1932-6203
et al., 2009, Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic, British Medical Journal, Vol:339, ISSN:0959-8146
et al., 2008, Modelling the Impact of Artemisinin Combination Therapy and Long-Acting Treatments on Malaria Transmission Intensity, Plos Medicine, Vol:5, ISSN:1549-1676, Pages:1617-1628
et al., 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, Science, Vol:324, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1557-1561