Imperial College London

Professor Adam Hawkes

Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Chemical Engineering

Professor of Energy Systems
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9300a.hawkes

 
 
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Location

 

RODH.503Roderic Hill BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

230 results found

Nikas A, Frilingou N, Heussaff C, Fragkos P, Mittal S, Sampedro J, Giarola S, Sasse JP, Rinaldi L, Doukas H, Gambhir A, Giannousakis A, Golinucci N, Koasidis K, Rocco MV, Trutnevyte E, Xexakis G, Zachmann G, Zisarou E, Colombo E, Hawkes A, Yarlagadda B, Binsted M, Iyer G, Johannsen RM, Thellufsen JZ, Lund H, Van de Ven DJet al., 2024, Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas, Energy, Vol: 290, ISSN: 0360-5442

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

Journal article

Kihara M, Lubello P, Millot A, Akute M, Kilonzi J, Kitili M, Mukuri F, Kinyanjui B, Hoseinpoori P, Hawkes A, Shivakumar A, Welsby D, Pye Set al., 2024, Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol: 52, ISSN: 2211-467X

Over the coming decades, Kenya is likely to see a large increase in electricity demand driven by economic growth and wider electrification of different sectors. At the same time, Kenya remains committed to maintain its high share of renewable generation. This study proposes a novel framework to soft link OSeMOSYS, a capacity expansion model (CEM), and FlexTool, a production cost model (PCM), to address the limitations of CEMs in the representation of variable renewable energy sources. Results show the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying critical grid issues that would have been missed by the capacity expansion model alone, especially in the case of a higher penetration of non-dispatchable sources. They also confirm that based on robust planning approaches, Kenya is well placed to maintain its very low carbon generation system under different demand growth projections, leveraging on firm generation from geothermal and high wind potential.

Journal article

Foster V, Trotter PA, Werner S, Niedermayer M, Mulugetta Y, Achakulwisut P, Brophy A, Dubash NK, Fankhauser S, Hawkes A, Hirmer S, Jenkins S, Loni S, McGivern A, Nanthavong K, Probst B, Pye S, Russo V, Semieniuk G, Shenga C, Sridharan V, Srivastav S, Sokona Y, Croxatto LS, Yang Pet al., 2024, Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world, Nature Energy

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

Journal article

Carboni M, Dall-Orsoletta A, Hawkes A, Giarola Set al., 2024, The future of road freight transport and alternative technologies: a case study for Italy, Energy Conversion and Management, Vol: 299, ISSN: 0196-8904

The truck sector produces one-fourth of the greenhouse gas emissions in Italy. Therefore, it calls for an urgent emission reduction to achieve the national mid-century net-zero pledges. In this work, a methodology is developed, based on a model for estimating the long-term energy transitions, the ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment (MUSE), to project the long-term freight heavy-duty sector evolution in Italy. The methodology applies a bottom-up description of the sector, where technologies are characterised in terms of costs, efficiencies, and emissions. Results show that efficiency improvements and technological cost reduction due to learning can only reduce the sector emissions by a limited amount. In fact, although, lowering costs of alternative powertrains and fuels will have a significant effect on reducing tailpipe emissions, this should occur alongside a ban of internal combustion engines. Additional renewable generation should need to grow between 30 and 64 TW/y to substantially reduce emissions and leading to a zero-tailpipe truck sector by 2050. The replacement of conventional engines by alternative powertrains remains dependent on distribution and fuelling infrastructure expansion, which should go hand in hand with the promotion of electric and hydrogen-fuelled vehicles.

Journal article

Muuls M, Hawkes A, Hamilton J, 2023, Big oil and the energy transition: evidence from M&A, Energy Policy, Vol: 183, ISSN: 0301-4215

International Oil Companies (IOCs) represent a significant source of capital and expertise that could be deployed to contribute to the investment required to achieve the energy transition to a low carbon future. This paper sheds light on the current motivations for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by the various energy sectors and focusses on policies and commercial contexts that would favour IOCs incorporating renewables into their core business. An empirical analysis of a twenty-year history of M&A in the energy sector, covering over 10,000 transactions, is complemented by an economic model that differentiates between investment for innovation and investment for scale and transaction benefit. The analysis confirms that in the case of renewables, IOCs are currently at the exploratory stage of business development and appear to be valuing innovation based on renewables on subset of their business. The analysis concludes that IOCs favour core investment in functioning competitive energy markets rather than in rate-of-return regulated assets, and that for IOCs in particular policies and market rules directed towards that end would favour both near- and long-term investment by them into low carbon energy.

Journal article

Cannone C, Hoseinpoori P, Martindale L, Tennyson EM, Gardumi F, Somavilla Croxatto L, Pye S, Mulugetta Y, Vrochidis I, Krishnamurthy S, Niet T, Harrison J, Yeganyan R, Mutembei M, Hawkes A, Petrarulo L, Allen L, Blyth W, Howells Met al., 2023, Addressing Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs: Learning Pathways in an Energy Planning Ecosystem, Energies, Vol: 16

This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on

Journal article

Moya Pinta DA, Copara D, Olivo A, Castro C, Giarola S, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, MUSE-RASA captures human dimension in climate-energy-economic models via global geoAI-ML agent datasets, Scientific Data, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2052-4463

This article provides a combined geospatial artificial intelligence-machine learning, geoAI-ML, agent-based, data-driven, technology-rich, bottom-up approach and datasets for capturing the human dimension in climate-energy-economy models. Seven stages were required to conduct this study and build thirteen datasets to characterise and parametrise geospatial agents in 28 regions, globally. Fundamentally, the methodology starts collecting and handling data, ending with the application of the ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment (MUSE), ResidentiAl Spatially-resolved and temporal-explicit Agents (RASA) model. MUSE-RASA uses AI-ML-based geospatial big data analytics to define eight scenarios to explore long-term transition pathways towards net-zero emission targets by mid-century. The framework and datasets are key for climate-energy-economy models considering consumer behaviour and bounded rationality in more realistic decision-making processes beyond traditional approaches. This approach defines energy economic agents as heterogeneous and diverse entities that evolve in space and time, making decisions under exogenous constraints. This framework is based on the Theory of Bounded Rationality, the Theory of Real Competition, the theoretical foundations of agent-based modelling and the progress on the combination of GIS-ABM.

Journal article

Gambhir A, Mittal S, Lamboll R, Grant N, bernie D, gohar L, Hawkes A, Koberle A, Rogelj J, lowe Jet al., 2023, Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2041-1723

Understanding how 1.5oC pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 o C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 oC target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO 2/yr for the first five years followingthe pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.

Journal article

Giarola S, Kell A, Sechi S, Carboni M, Dall-Orsoletta A, Leone P, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model, ENERGIES, Vol: 16

Journal article

van de Ven D-J, Mittal S, Gambhir A, Lamboll RD, Doukas H, Giarola S, Hawkes A, Koasidis K, Koberle AC, McJeon H, Perdana S, Peters GP, Rogelj J, Sognnaes I, Vielle M, Nikas Aet al., 2023, A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 570-+, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Batti MME, Machado PG, Hawkes A, Ribeiro CDOet al., 2023, Land use policies and their effects on Brazilian farming production, JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION, Vol: 73, ISSN: 1617-1381

Journal article

Dubey L, Speirs J, Balcombe P, Tariq N, Brandon N, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, Future use of natural gas under tightening climate targets, Futures, Vol: 150, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 0016-3287

Natural gas has developed as a prominent energy source across the world over the last century. However, its use in the future will be constrained by evolving climate goals, and an optimal role for natural gas in a future 1.5 °C world is debated. We conduct a systematic review of the literature, and analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SR1.5 scenarios to understand the role of natural gas in a 1.5 °C world. We also examine key factors that influence the use of gas such as Carbon Capture and Storage and Negative Emissions Technologies. We find that global gas use decreases more considerably under a 1.5 °C target than 2 °C with half of the 1.5 °C scenarios reducing gas use by at least ∼35% by 2050 and ∼70% by 2100 against 2019 consumption. We find there is no correlation between the level of Negative Emissions Technologies and the permitted gas use in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, while there is a strong correlation between gas use and the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage. Regionally, there are considerable ranges in gas use, with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development & European Union seeing the greatest decrease in use and Asia increasing use until 2050. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, global natural gas use is likely to decrease in the coming decades in response to climate goals.

Journal article

Dubey L, Cooper J, Hawkes A, 2023, Minimum detection limits of the TROPOMI satellite sensor across North America and their implications for measuring oil and gas methane emissions, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 872, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0048-9697

Methane emissions from natural gas are of ever-increasing importance as we struggle to reach Paris climate targets. Locating and measuring emissions from natural gas can be particularly difficult as they are often widely distributed across supply chains. Satellites are increasingly used to measure these emissions, with some such as TROPOMI giving daily coverage worldwide, making locating and quantifying these emissions easier. However, there is little understanding of the real-world detection limits of TROPOMI, which can cause emissions to go undetected or be misattributed. This paper uses TROPOMI and meteorological data to calculate, and create a map of, the minimum detection limits of the TROPOMI satellite sensor across North America for different campaign lengths. We then compared these to emission inventories to determine the quantity of emissions that can be captured by TROPOMI. We find that minimum detection limits vary from 500-8800 kg/h/pixel in a single overpass to 50-1200 kg/h/pixel for a yearlong campaign. This leads to 0.04 % of a year's emissions being captured in a single (day) measurement to 14.4 % in a 1-year measurement campaign. Assuming gas sites contain super-emitters, emissions of between 4.5 % - 10.1 % from a single measurement and 35.6 % - 41.1 % for a yearlong campaign are captured.

Journal article

Moya D, Arroba C, Castro C, Perez C, Giarola S, Kaparaju P, Perez-Navarro A, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, A Methodology to Estimate High-Resolution Gridded Datasets on Energy Consumption Drivers in Ecuador's Residential Sector during the 2010-2020 Period, ENERGIES, Vol: 16

Journal article

Stettler MEJ, Woo M, Ainalis D, Achurra-Gonzalez P, Speirs J, Cooper J, Lim D-H, Brandon N, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, Review of Well-to-Wheel lifecycle emissions of liquefied natural gas heavy goods vehicles, APPLIED ENERGY, Vol: 333, ISSN: 0306-2619

Journal article

Bakkaloglu S, Mersch M, Sunny N, Markides C, Shah N, Hawkes Aet al., 2023, ECOS 2023: How far should the UK go with negative emission technologies?, Pages: 2939-2949

Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs), such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), are potentially valuable to offset carbon emissions and therefore commonly deployed in global climate change mitigation scenarios. However, they are controversial and sometimes seen as a means of delaying or avoiding emissions reduction efforts. Nonetheless, the UK has set an ambitious target of engineering 57 Mt CO2 per year of removals by 2050 to achieve net zero emissions[1]. This study uses the UK TIMES, technology-rich bottom-up energy system model to investigate the nationwide deployment of NETs in the energy system, while varying model parameters to provide an overview of decarbonisation in line with the UK's net zero ambitions. We investigated DACCS and BECCS NETs technologies with regards to technological uncertainties and sensitivities. We revised the TIMES model structure for NETs implementation to ensure proper integration with industry. Our analysis estimates that the UK can remove 78.5 Mt CO2 by 2050 under the balanced Net Zero Scenario. However, by integrating an updated characterisation of removal technologies, and enabling tighter integration of DACCS into industrial clusters, we can achieve a removal capacity of up to 209 Mt CO2 by 2050 based on our preliminary results. Additionally, a 50% reduction in DACCS cost could further increase the removal capacity to 218 Mt CO2. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the UK and beyond, highlighting how NETs can be integrated in industrial strategy.

Conference paper

Dubey L, Cooper J, Staffell I, Hawkes A, Balcombe Pet al., 2023, Comparing satellite methane measurements to inventory estimates: a Canadian case study, Atmospheric Environment: X, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2590-1621

Methane emissions from natural gas production are of increasing importance as they threaten efforts to mitigate climate change. Current inventory estimates carry high uncertainties due to difficulties in measuring emission sources across large regions. Satellite measurements of atmospheric methane could provide new understanding of emissions. This paper provides insight into the effectiveness of using satellite data to inform and improve methane inventories for natural gas activities. TROPOMI data are used to quantify methane emissions from natural gas within the Montney basin region of Canada and results are compared with existing inventories. Emissions estimated using TROPOMI data were 2.6 ± 2.2 kt/day which is 7.4 ± 6.4 times the inventory estimates. Pixels (7 by 7 km) that contained gas facilities had on average 11 ppb more methane than the background. 7.4% of pixels containing gas sites displayed consistently high methane levels that were not reflected in the inventory. The satellite data were not sufficiently granular to correlate with inventories on a facility scale. This illustrates the spatial limitations of using satellite data to corroborate bottom-up inventories.

Journal article

Philip S, Kell A, Giarola S, Hawkes Aet al., 2022, Transport decarbonisation in the UK: an agent-based modelling study

Poster

Kell A, Giarola S, Hawkes A, 2022, An investigation of the impact of bounded rationality on the decarbonisation of Kenya's power system, Fourteenth IAMC Annual Meeting 2021

How can we transition to a low-carbon energy supply to limit the effects of climate change?The methodology of quantitative energy models can have an impact on the advice inferred. We compare Kenya’s electricity system transition to 2050 with a 2-model inter-comparison. To explore the uncertainty, we use an agent-based simulation model (MUSE) and an optimisation model (OSeMOSYS).

Poster

Bakkaloglu S, Cooper J, Hawkes A, 2022, Life cycle environmental impact assessment of methane emissions from the biowaste management strategy of the United Kingdom: Towards net zero emissions, JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, Vol: 376, ISSN: 0959-6526

Journal article

Parkinson B, Balcombe P, Speirs JF, Hawkes AD, Hellgardt Ket al., 2022, Levelized cost of CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation from hydrogen production routes (vol 12, pg 19, 2019), ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, ISSN: 1754-5692

Journal article

Mulugetta Y, Sokona Y, Trotter PA, Fankhauser S, Omukuti J, Croxatto LS, Steffen B, Tesfamichael M, Abraham E, Adam J-P, Agbemabiese L, Agutu C, Aklilu MP, Alao O, Batidzirai B, Bekele G, Dagnachew AG, Davidson O, Denton F, Diemuodeke EO, Egli F, Gebresilassie EG, Gebreslassie M, Goundiam M, Gujba HK, Hailu Y, Hawkes AD, Hirmer S, Hoka H, Howells M, Isah A, Kammen D, Kemausuor F, Khennas I, Kruger W, Malo I, Mofor L, Nago M, Nock D, Okereke C, Ouedraogo SN, Probst B, Schmidt M, Schmidt TS, Shenga C, Sokona M, Steckel JC, Sterl S, Tembo B, Tomei J, Twesigye P, Watson J, Winkler H, Yussuff Aet al., 2022, Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 7, Pages: 1015-1022, ISSN: 2058-7546

Journal article

Giarola S, Sachs J, d'Avezac M, Kell A, Hawkes Aet al., 2022, MUSE: An open-source agent-based integrated assessment modelling framework, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol: 44, Pages: 1-21, ISSN: 2211-467X

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are a cornerstone of an effective approach toclimate change mitigation. Despite the variety of methodologies for characterisingthe energy system, land use change, economics, and climate response, the modellingcommunity has an open and urgent request for tools capable of more realistic interpretation of the energy transition, capturing human behaviour, and embodying theprinciples of transparency, reproducibility, and flexibility of use.This paper presents an open-source modelling framework designed to fill thatgap. Named MUSE (ModUlar energy systems Simulation Environment), this newagent-based model supports flexible characterisation of agent decision-making, including individual goals, bounded-rationality, imperfect foresight, and limited knowledge during the decision process. MUSE integrates this agent-based approach in apartial-equilibrium framework and enables a technology-rich description of the energy systems with an unprecedented degree of flexibility for including technological,temporal, and geographical granularity. The structure of MUSE creates the abilityto produce climate change mitigation assessments that are more grounded, and moretangible model outputs for conceiving effective approaches to mitigation. MUSE isavailable open source under a GNU General Public License v3.0 on GitHub at thislink https://github.com/SGIModel/MUSE_OS.

Journal article

Cooper J, Hawkes A, 2022, Cutting emissions outside borders, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 12, Pages: 965-966, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Cooper J, Dubey L, Bakkaloglu S, Hawkes Aet al., 2022, Hydrogen emissions from the hydrogen value chain-emissions profile and impact to global warming, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 830, ISSN: 0048-9697

Future energy systems could rely on hydrogen (H2) to achieve decarbonisation and net-zero goals. In a similar energy landscape to natural gas, H2 emissions occur along the supply chain. It has been studied how current gas infrastructure can support H2, but there is little known about how H2 emissions affect global warming as an indirect greenhouse gas. In this work, we have estimated for the first time the potential emission profiles (g CO2eq/MJ H2,HHV) of H2 supply chains, and found that the emission rates of H2 from H2 supply chains and methane from natural gas supply are comparable, but the impact on global warming is much lower based on current estimates. This study also demonstrates the critical importance of establishing mobile H2 emission monitoring and reducing the uncertainty of short-lived H2 climate forcing so as to clearly address H2 emissions for net-zero strategies.

Journal article

Cooper J, Dubey L, Hawkes A, 2022, The life cycle environmental impacts of negative emission technologies in North America, Sustainable Production and Consumption, Vol: 32, Pages: 880-894, ISSN: 2352-5509

Negative emission technologies (NETs) could play a key role in ensuring net-zero and longer-term net negative emission ambitions are met. However, greenhouse gas emissions (and other pollutants) will occur over the life cycle of a NET and will need to be taken into consideration when developing schemes to roll out their use. We compare five NETs: afforestation/reforestation (AR), enhanced weathering (EW), mangrove restoration (MR), bioenergy and direct air capture with carbon storage (BECCS and DAC), using life cycle assessment to determine their environmental impacts (global warming, freshwater, toxicity etc.). We find that there is a wide range in the environmental impacts estimated across the NETs and the context in which they are used will directly impact which NET has low or high environmental impacts. This is an important aspect to consider when deciding which NET to prioritise in strategies to roll out their use on large scales. If consistent removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is the goal, then AR and MR have the lowest environmental impacts. However, if large and quick CO2 removal is the goal then EW, DAC and BECCS have similar, if not lower, environmental impacts.

Journal article

Moya D, Copara D, Borja A, Pérez C, Kaparaju P, Pérez-Navarro Á, Giarola S, Hawkes Aet al., 2022, Geospatial and temporal estimation of climatic, end-use demands, and socioeconomic drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector in Ecuador, Energy Conversion and Management, Vol: 261, Pages: 115629-115629, ISSN: 0196-8904

It is widely acknowledged that the drivers for energy consumption in the residential sector are ambient temperature, energy demand, population density, and socio-economic conditions. However, there are no studies in the literature assessing the temporal and spatial distribution of these drivers for a region or country. The decision-making process of the energy transition will be enhanced by using geospatial-resolved and temporal-explicit energy consumption drivers. This study estimates the climatic, end-use demands, and socio-economic drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector of Ecuador at a high spatio-temporal resolution between 2010 and 2020. This research uses publicly available datasets to calculate seven energy consumption drivers in the residential sector of Ecuador: (1) calibrated gridded population density at 1 km2 resolution; (2) validated gridded space heating demand at 1 km2 resolution; (3) validated gridded space cooling demand at 1 km2 resolution; (4) validated gridded water heating demand at 1 km2 resolution; (5) calibrated gridded gross domestic product at 1 km2 resolution; (6) calibrated gridded gross domestic product per capita at 1 km2 resolution; and (7) calibrated regional human development index, at city level. Disaggregation of the drivers at a high spatial resolution for the entire country in a range of 10 years was considered. The final high-1 km2 resolution results can be used for the evaluation of different energy policies in terms of long-term planning and in techno-economic modelling of energy systems and decarbonisation pathways.

Journal article

Bakkaloglu S, Cooper J, Hawkes A, 2022, Methane emissions along biomethane and biogas supply chains are underestimated, One Earth, Vol: 5, Pages: 724-736, ISSN: 2590-3322

Although natural gas generates lower CO2 emissions, gas extraction, processing, and distribution all release methane, which has a greater global warming potential than CO2. Biomethane and biogas that use organic wastes as a feedstock have emerged as alternatives to natural gas, with lower carbon and methane emissions. However, the extent to which methane is still emitted at various stages along biogas and biomethane supply chains remains unclear. Here, we adopt a Monte Carlo approach to systematically synthesize the distribution of methane emissions at each key biomethane and biogas supply chain stage using data collected from the existing literature. We show that the top 5% of emitters are responsible for 62% of emissions. Methane emissions could be more than two times of greater than previously estimated, with the digestate handling stage responsible for the majority of methane released. To ensure the climate benefits of biomethane and biogas production, effective methane-mitigation strategies must be designed and deployed at each supply chain stage.

Journal article

Cooper J, Dubey L, Hawkes A, 2022, Life cycle assessment of negative emission technologies for effectiveness in carbon sequestration, 29th CIRP Life Cycle Engineering Conference, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 357-361, ISSN: 2212-8271

As climate change and emissions targets tighten, negative emissions technologies (NETs) will play a crucial role in making sure global temperature rises do not exceed Paris Agreement goals. There are a variety of NETs that can be used to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but it is uncertain which are more effective, and by how much, as well as what the net GHG removal is as all NETs will emit GHGs and other pollutants throughout their life cycles. We conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare four NETs: afforestation/reforestation, enhanced weathering, direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. These are compared on their life cycle impacts to climate change, land use change and toxicity (human and terrestrial). We find that the most effective NET is afforestation/reforestation for the environmental impacts considered while enhanced weathering and direct air capture are less effective. However, when the rate of carbon removal is considered, we find that afforestation/reforestation is much slower than the other NETs. Therefore, while it has the lowest impacts to the environment, either long time frames or large-scale implementation is needed for it to match the capacity of direct air capture or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Conference paper

Edelenbosch OY, Miu L, Sachs J, Hawkes A, Tavoni Met al., 2022, Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework, ISCIENCE, Vol: 25

Journal article

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