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Zheng B, Su B, Udeh-Momoh C, et al., 2022, Associations of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities with dementia risk in patients with diabetes: results from a large UK cohort study, JPAD-JOURNAL OF PREVENTION OF ALZHEIMERS DISEASE, Vol: 9, Pages: 86-91, ISSN: 2274-5807
BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) is an established risk factor for dementia. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of comorbidities could further increase dementia risk in diabetes patients.ObjectivesTo examine the associations between cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities and dementia risk in T2D patients.DesignPopulation-based cohort study.SettingThe UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).Participants489,205 T2D patients aged over 50 years in the UK CPRD.MeasurementsMajor cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities were extracted as time-varying exposure variables. The outcome event was dementia incidence based on dementia diagnosis or dementia-specific drug prescription.ResultsDuring a median of six years follow-up, 33,773 (6.9%) incident dementia cases were observed. Time-varying Cox regressions showed T2D patients with stroke, peripheral vascular disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure or hypertension were at higher risk of dementia compared to those without such comorbidities (HR [95% CI] = 1.64 [1.59–1.68], 1.37 [1.34–1.41], 1.26 [1.22–1.30], 1.15 [1.11–1.20] or 1.10 [1.03–1.18], respectively). Presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or chronic kidney disease was also associated with increased dementia risk (HR [95% CI] = 1.05 [1.01–1.10] or 1.11 [1.07–1.14]).ConclusionsA range of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities were associated with further increases of dementia risk in T2D patients. Prevention and effective management of these comorbidities may play a significant role in maintaining cognitive health in T2D patients.
Majeed A, 2022, London is an important barometer for the omicron wave in the United Kingdom., BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 376, Pages: o42-o42, ISSN: 0959-535X
Majeed A, 2022, It's time for more targeted use of lateral flow tests for covid-19., BMJ, Vol: 376, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1759-2151
GBD 2019 Adolescent Young Adult Cancer Collaborators, 2022, The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Oncology, Vol: 23, Pages: 27-52, ISSN: 1213-9432
BACKGROUND: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. FINDINGS: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the high
Paz S, Majeed A, Christophides GK, 2021, Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)-risks and recommendations, Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, Vol: 169, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 0165-0009
The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has rapid population growth, large differences in socio-economic levels between developed and developing countries, migration, increased water demand, and ecosystems degradation. The region is experiencing a significant warming trend with longer and warmer summers, increased frequency and severity of heat waves, and a drier climate. While climate change plays an important role in contributing to political instability in the region through displacement of people, food insecurity, and increased violence, it also increases the risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Poorer and less educated people, young children and the elderly, migrants, and those with long-term health problems are at highest risk. A result of the inequalities among EMME countries is an inconsistency in the availability of reliable evidence about the impacts on infectious diseases. To help address this gap, a search of the literature was conducted as a basis for related recommended responses and suggested actions for preparedness and prevention. Since climate change already impacts the health of vulnerable populations in the EMME and will have a greater impact in future years, risk assessment and timely design and implementation of health preparedness and adaptation strategies are essential. Joint national and cross-border infectious diseases management systems for more effective preparedness and prevention are needed, supported by interventions that improve the environment. Without such cooperation and effective interventions, climate change will lead to an increasing morbidity and mortality in the EMME from infectious diseases, with a higher risk for the most vulnerable populations.
Global Burden of Disease 2019 Cancer Collaboration, Kocarnik JM, Compton K, et al., 2021, Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019., JAMA Oncology, Vol: 8, Pages: 420-444, ISSN: 2374-2445
Importance: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. Objective: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. Evidence Review: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low
Osama T, Hodes S, Razai MS, et al., 2021, Boosting the nation against covid-19: are the vaccination targets feasible?, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 375, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 0959-535X
Majeed F, Wingfield D, Taghavi Azar Sharabiani M, et al., 2021, Risk of Covid-19 in shielded and nursing care home patients: cohort study in general practice, British Journal of General Practice Open, Vol: 5, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2398-3795
Background: Covid-19 cases were first detected in the UK in January 2020 and vulnerable patients were asked to shield from March to reduce their risk of Covid-19 infection.Aim: To determine the risk and determinants of Covid-19 diagnosis in shielded vs. non-shielded groups adjusted for key comorbidities not explained by shielding. Design: Retrospective cohort study of adults with COVID-19 infection between 1/2/20-15/5/20 in West London. Method: Individuals diagnosed with Covid-19 were identified in SystmOne records using clinical codes. Infection risks were adjusted for socio-demographic factors, nursing home status and comorbidities. Results: Of 57,713 adults, 573 (1%) individuals were identified as shielded and 1,074 adults had documented Covid-19 infections (1.9%). Covid-19 infection rate in the shielded group individuals compared with non-shielded adult individuals was 6.5 % (37/573) vs. 1.8 % (1,037/57, 140), p<0.0001. A multivariable fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression identified that Covid-19 infection was increased with aHR (95% CI): shielding status 1.52 (1.00-2.30), p=0.048. Other determinants of Covid-19 infection included nursing home residency 7.05 (4.22-11.77) p<0.001, Black African, 2.52 (1.99-3.18) p<0.001, Other 1.74 (1.42-2.13) p<0.001, Non-stated 1.70 (1.02-2.84) p=0.04, or South Asian ethnicity 1.46 (1.10-1.93) p=0.01, history of respiratory disease 1.51 (1.06-2.16), p=0.02, deprivation (3rd vs. least deprived IMD quintile) 1.25 (1.01-1.56) p=0.045, obesity (BMI>30kg/m2) 1.39 (1.18-1.63) p<0.001, and age 1.02 (1.01-1.02) p<0.001. Male gender was associated with lower risk of Covid-19 infection: 0.71 (0.62-0.82) p<0.001.Conclusion: Shielded individuals had a higher Covid-19 infection rate compared with non-shielded individuals, after adjusting for socio-demographic factors, nursing home status, and comorbidities.
Majeed A, 2021, Why I don't support GPs taking industrial action, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 375, Pages: n2937-n2937, ISSN: 0959-535X
Safiri S, Kolahi A-A, Naghavi M, 2021, Global, regional and national burden of bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, BMJ Global Health, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2059-7908
Introduction: The current study determined the level and trends associated with the incidence, death and disability rates for bladder cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI; a composite measure of sociodemographic factors).Methods: Various data sources from different countries, including vital registration and cancer registries were used to generate estimates. Mortality data and incidence data transformed to mortality estimates using the mortality to incidence ratio (MIR) were used in a cause of death ensemble model to estimate mortality. Mortality estimates were divided by the MIR to produce incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated using incidence and MIR-based survival estimates. Age-specific mortality and standardised life expectancy were used to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). Prevalence was multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs), while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the YLLs and YLDs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population.Results: Globally, there were 524 000 bladder cancer incident cases (95% uncertainty interval 476 000 to 569 000) and 229 000 bladder cancer deaths (211 000 to 243 000) in 2019. Age-standardised death rate decreased by 15.7% (8.6 to 21.0), during the period 1990–2019. Bladder cancer accounted for 4.39 million (4.09 to 4.70) DALYs in 2019, and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased significantly by 18.6% (11.2 to 24.3) during the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Monaco had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (31.9 cases (23.3 to 56.9) per 100 000), while Lebanon had the highest age-standardised death rate (10.4 (8.1 to 13.7)). Cabo Verde had the highest increase in age-standardised incidence (284.2% (214.1 to 362.8)) and death rates (190.3% (139.3 to 251.1)) between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the g
Ali R, Raleigh V, Majeed A, et al., 2021, Life expectancy by ethnic group in England., BMJ, Vol: 375, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1759-2151
El-Osta A, Hennessey C, Pilot C, et al., 2021, A digital solution to streamline access to smoking cessation interventions in England; findings from a primary care pilot (STOPNOW study), Public Health in Practice, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2666-5352
Objectives:Despite the proven efficacy of several smoking cessation medications that have been shown to improve long-term abstinence rates, approximately two-thirds of smokers report not having used medication in their most recent quit attempt. A main barrier could be delayed access to pharmacological interventions. This study investigated the utility of a primary care linked online portal to streamline timely access to pharmacological support to patients who want to quit smoking by making an asynchronous request for treatment to their general practitioner.Study design:Prospective cohort study.Methods:An online portal with added functionality was developed, which allowed patients with a unique link to make an asynchronous request for treatment. Two GP practices identified a total of 4337 eligible patients who received an SMS or email invite to engage with an online portal including an electronic survey to capture information about smoking behaviours and to request treatment. Portal informatics and patient level data were analysed to measure the efficacy of the online system in reducing the time between making a formal request to treatment and access to pharmacological support. The primary outcome measure was the time between making a formal request for treatment and access to pharmacological support from a designated community pharmacy.Results:323 patients (7.4%) initiated the survey, but only 56 patients completed the survey and made a formal request for treatment. 94% of participants did not return to use the portal to make a second or follow-up request for treatment. Only 3 participants completed the 12-week pathway. A total of 75 medication items were prescribed and collected by 56 patients. The time difference between the formal request to treatment and GP review ranged between 20 h and 1 week. The time difference between approval of prescription by the GP and access to medication was 5 days ± 2.1 days (range = 1.9–7.0 days).Conclusion:The widespre
Ward JL, Azzopardi PS, Francis KL, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 1593-1618, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundDocumentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).FindingsIn 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or mater
Udeh-Momoh C, Watermeyer T, Sindi S, et al., 2021, Health, lifestyle and psycho-social determinants of poor sleep quality during the Early Phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a focus on UK older adults deemed clinically extremely vulnerable, Frontiers in Public Health, Vol: 9, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2296-2565
Background: Several studies have assessed the impact of COVID-19-relatedlockdownson sleep quality across global populations. However, no study to date has specifically assessed at-riskpopulations, particularly those at highest risk of complications from coronavirus infection deemed “clinically-extremely-vulnerable-(COVID-19CEV)” [as defined by Public Health England, 2020].Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we surveyed 5,558 adults aged ≥50 years (of whom 523 met criteria for COVID-19CEV) during the first pandemic wave that resulted in a nationwide-lockdown (April-June 2020) with assessments of sleep quality (an adapted sleep scale that captured multiple sleep indices before and during the lockdown), health/medical, lifestyle, psychosocial and socio demographic factors. We examined associations between these variablesand sleep quality;and explored interactions of COVID-19CEV status with significant predictors of poor sleep,to identify potential moderating factors. Results: 37% of participants reported poor sleep quality which was associated with younger age, female sex and multimorbidity. Significant associations with poor sleep included health/medical factors: COVID-19 CEV status, higher BMI, arthritis, pulmonary disease, and mental health disorders; and the following lifestyle and psychosocial factors: living alone, higher alcohol consumption, an unhealthy diet and higher depressive and anxiety symptoms. Moderators of the negative relationship between COVID-19 CEV status and good sleep quality were marital status, loneliness, anxiety and diet. Within this subgroup, less anxious and less lonely males, as well as females with healthier diets, reported better sleep. Conclusions: Sleep quality in older adults was compromised during the sudden unprecedented nation-wide lockdown due to distinct modifiable factors. An important contribution of our study is the assessment of a &ldquo
Greenfield G, Okoli O, Quezada Yamamoto H, et al., 2021, Characteristics of frequently attending children in hospital emergency departments: a systematic review, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objective: To summarise the literature on frequent attendances to hospital emergency departments and describe sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of children who attend EDs frequently.Setting: Hospital emergency departments.Participants: Children <21 years, attending hospital emergency departments frequently.Primary outcome measures: Outcomes measures were defined separately in each study, and were predominantly the number of ED attendances per year.Results: We included 21 studies representing 6,513,627 children. Between 0.3% to 75% of all paediatric ED users were frequent users. Most studies defined 4 or more visits per year as a “frequent ED” usage. Children who were frequent ED users were more likely to be less than 5 years old. In the US, patients with public insurance were more likely to be frequent attenders. Frequent ED users more likely to be frequent users of primary care and have long-term conditions; the most common diagnoses were infections and gastroenteritis.Conclusions: The review included a wide range of information across various health systems, however children who were frequent ED users have some universal characteristics in common. Policies to reduce frequent attendance might usefully focus on preschool children and supporting primary care in responding to primary-care oriented conditions.
Abbas-Hanif A, Modi N, Smith SK, et al., 2021, Covid-19 treatments and vaccines must be evaluated in pregnancy., BMJ-British Medical Journal, Vol: 375, ISSN: 1756-1833
Micah AE, Cogswell IE, Cunningham B, et al., 2021, Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 1317-1343, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundThe rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.MethodsWe estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.FindingsIn 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geogra
Deal A, Halliday R, Crawshaw AF, et al., 2021, Migration and outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease in Europe: a systematic review, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1473-3099
Migrant populations are one of several underimmunised groups in the EU or European Economic Area (EU/EEA), yet little is known about their involvement in outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. This information is vital to develop targeted strategies to improve the health of diverse migrant communities. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019157473; Jan 1, 2000, to May 22, 2020) adhering to PRISMA guidelines, to identify studies on vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks (measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis, polio, hepatitis A, varicella, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae) involving migrants residing in the EU/EEA and Switzerland. We identified 45 studies, reporting on 47 distinct vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks across 13 countries. Most reported outbreaks involving migrants were of measles (n=24; 6496 cases), followed by varicella (n=11; 505 cases), hepatitis A (n=7; 1356 cases), rubella (n=3; 487 cases), and mumps (n=2; 293 cases). 19 (40%) outbreaks, predominantly varicella and measles, were reported in temporary refugee camps or shelters. Of 11 varicella outbreaks, nine (82%) were associated with adult migrants. Half of measles outbreaks (n=11) were associated with migrants from eastern European countries. In conclusion, migrants are involved in vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks in Europe, with adult and child refugees residing in shelters or temporary camps at particular risk, alongside specific nationality groups. Vulnerability varies by disease, setting, and demographics, highlighting the importance of tailoring catch-up vaccination interventions to specific groups in order to meet regional and global vaccination targets as recommended by the new Immunisation Agenda 2030 framework for action. A better understanding of vaccine access and intent in migrant groups and a greater focus on co-designing interventions is urgently needed, with direct implications for COVID-19 vaccine delivery.
Deal A, Hayward SE, Huda M, et al., 2021, Strategies and action points to ensure equitable uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations: A national qualitative interview study to explore the views of undocumented migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees, Journal of Migration and Health, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2666-6235
Introduction: Early evidence confirms lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake in established ethnic minority populations, yet there has been little focus on understanding vaccine hesitancy and barriers to vaccination in migrants. Growing populations of precarious migrants (including undocumented migrants, asylum seekers and refugees) in the UK and Europe are considered to be under-immunised groups and may be excluded from health systems, yet little is known about their views on COVID-19 vaccines specifically, which are essential to identify key solutions and action points to strengthen vaccine roll-out. Methods: We did an in-depth semi-structured qualitative interview study of recently arrived migrants (foreign-born, >18 years old; <10 years in the UK) to the UK with precarious immigration status between September 2020 and March 2021, seeking their input into strategies to strengthen COVID-19 vaccine delivery and uptake. We used the 'Three Cs' model (confidence, complacency and convenience) to explore COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, barriers and access. Data were analysed using a thematic framework approach. Data collection continued until data saturation was reached, and no novel concepts were arising. The study was approved by the University of London ethics committee (REC 2020.00630). Results: We approached 20 migrant support groups nationwide, recruiting 32 migrants (mean age 37.1 years; 21 [66%] female; mean time in the UK 5.6 years [SD 3.7 years]), including refugees (n = 3), asylum seekers (n = 19), undocumented migrants (n = 8) and migrants with limited leave to remain (n = 2) from 15 different countries (5 WHO regions). 23 (72%) of 32 migrants reported being hesitant about accepting a COVID-19 vaccine and two (6%) would definitely not accept a vaccine. Participants communicated concerns over vaccine content, side-effects, lack of accessible information in an appropriate language, lack of trust in the health system and low per
Palladino R, Marrie RA, Majeed A, et al., 2021, Management of vascular risk in people with multiple sclerosis in England: a population-based matched cohort study, MS Conference, Publisher: SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, Pages: 219-219, ISSN: 1352-4585
Razzaq H, Rao A, Sathananthan S, et al., 2021, Screening tool to improve patient referral to acute surgical care from Emergency Department, RCS, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 0007-1323
Kinyoki D, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Bhattacharjee NV, et al., 2021, Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018, Nature Medicine, Vol: 27, Pages: 1761-1782, ISSN: 1078-8956
Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.
Jahagirdar D, Walters MK, Novotney A, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 8, Pages: e633-e651, ISSN: 2352-3018
BackgroundThe sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.MethodsTo estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0).FindingsIn 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stabl
Feigin VL, Stark BA, Johnson CO, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Neurology, Vol: 20, Pages: 795-820, ISSN: 1474-4422
BackgroundRegularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsWe applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.FindingsIn 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0&
Palladino R, Chataway J, Majeed A, et al., 2021, Interface of multiple sclerosis, depression, vascular disease, and mortality a population-based matched cohort study, Neurology, Vol: 97, Pages: E1322-E1333, ISSN: 0028-3878
Background and Objectives To assess whether the association among depression, vascular disease, and mortality differs in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared with age-, sex-, and general practice–matched controls.Methods We conducted a population-based retrospective matched cohort study between January 1, 1987, and September 30, 2018, that included people with MS and matched controls without MS from England, stratified by depression status. We used time-varying Cox proportional hazard regression models to test the association among MS, depression, and time to incident vascular disease and mortality. Analyses were also stratified by sex.Results We identified 12,251 people with MS and 72,572 matched controls. At baseline, 21% of people with MS and 9% of controls had depression. Compared with matched controls without depression, people with MS had an increased risk of incident vascular disease regardless of whether they had comorbid depression. The 10-year hazard of all-cause mortality was 1.75-fold greater in controls with depression (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.59–1.91), 3.88-fold greater in people with MS without depression (95% CI 3.66–4.10), and 5.43-fold greater in people with MS and depression (95% CI 4.88–5.96). Overall, the interaction between MS status and depression was synergistic, with 14% of the observed effect attributable to the interaction. Sex-stratified analyses confirmed differences in hazard ratios.Discussion Depression is associated with increased risks of incident vascular disease and mortality in people with MS, and the effects of depression and MS on all-cause mortality are synergistic. Further studies should evaluate whether effectively treating depression is associated with a reduced risk of vascular disease and mortality.
Majeed A, Hodes S, Marks S, 2021, Consent for covid-19 vaccination in children., BMJ, Vol: 374, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1759-2151
Greenfield G, Shmueli L, Harvey A, et al., 2021, Patient-initiated second medical consultations: patient characteristics and motivating factors, impact on care and satisfaction: A systematic review, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives: To review the characteristics and motivations of patients seeking second opinions, and the impact of such opinions on patient management, satisfaction, and cost-effectiveness. Data sources: Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and HMIC databases.Study design: A systematic literature search was performed for terms related to second opinion and patient characteristics. Study quality was assessed using the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Data collection / Extraction methods: We included articles focused on patient-initiated second opinions, which provided quantitative data on their impact on diagnosis, treatment, prognosis or patient satisfaction, described the characteristics or motivating factors of patients who initiated a second opinion, or the cost-effectiveness of patient-initiated second opinions. Principal findings: Thirty-one articles were included in the review. 27 studies considered patient characteristics, 18 patient motivating factors, 10 patient satisfaction, and 17 clinical agreement between the first and second opinion. Seeking a second opinion was more common in women, middle age patients, more educated patients; and in people having a chronic condition, with higher income or socioeconomic status or living in central urban areas. Patients seeking a second opinion sought to gain more information or reassurance about their diagnosis or treatment. While many second opinions confirm the original diagnosis or treatment, discrepancies in opinions had a potential major impact on patient outcomes in up to 58% of cases. No studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of patient initiated second opinions.Conclusions: Seeking a second opinion was more common in women, middle-age patients, and more educated patients, and in people having a chronic condition, with higher income or socioeconomic status or living in central urban areas. Patients seeking a second opinion sought to gain m
de Lusignan S, Mold F, Sheikh A, et al., 2021, Patients' online access to their electronic health records and linked online services: a systematic interpretative review, BMJ Open, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives To investigate the effect of providing patients online access to their electronic health record (EHR) and linked transactional services on the provision, quality and safety of healthcare. The objectives are also to identify and understand: barriers and facilitators for providing online access to their records and services for primary care workers; and their association with organisational/IT system issues.Setting Primary care.Participants A total of 143 studies were included. 17 were experimental in design and subject to risk of bias assessment, which is reported in a separate paper. Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria have also been published elsewhere in the protocol.Primary and secondary outcome measures Our primary outcome measure was change in quality or safety as a result of implementation or utilisation of online records/transactional services.Results No studies reported changes in health outcomes; though eight detected medication errors and seven reported improved uptake of preventative care. Professional concerns over privacy were reported in 14 studies. 18 studies reported concern over potential increased workload; with some showing an increase workload in email or online messaging; telephone contact remaining unchanged, and face-to face contact staying the same or falling. Owing to heterogeneity in reporting overall workload change was hard to predict. 10 studies reported how online access offered convenience, primarily for more advantaged patients, who were largely highly satisfied with the process when clinician responses were prompt.Conclusions Patient online access and services offer increased convenience and satisfaction. However, professionals were concerned about impact on workload and risk to privacy. Studies correcting medication errors may improve patient safety. There may need to be a redesign of the business process to engage health professionals in online access and of the EHR to make it friendlier and provide equity of acces
Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 870-905, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundSustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.MethodsWe completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.FindingsGlobal U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019.
Ebrahimi H, Aryan Z, Moghaddam SS, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 1030-1049, ISSN: 2213-2600
BackgroundPrevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010–19 period.FindingsGlobally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised i
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