Publications
91 results found
Gachanja J, Muriithi B, Mwabonje O, et al., 2023, Kenya’s low carbon futures: an assessment using the KCERT model, Energies, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1996-1073
KCERT 2050 is a modelling tool designed to assist in the identification and evaluation of synergies and trade-offs within sectoral decarbonization pathways for Kenya. KCERT 2050 is positioned as a user-friendly and dynamic tool that bridges complex energy systems and emissions models with integrated impact assessment tools, aimed at aiding decision making towards carbon neutrality in both public and private sectors. The tool considers greenhouse gas emissions from various economic sectors and is validated through a collaborative process involving experts from diverse backgrounds. This study uses KCERT 2050 to examine the prospects of achieving a net−zero emissions pathway by 2050. In the baseline scenario, a significant emission trajectory is observed, with the transport sector emerging as the largest contributor. Transitioning to the net−zero pathway reveals substantial reductions across key sectors, such as transport, industry, and land use, driven by strategies including electrification, waste reduction, and afforestation. The sensitivity analysis underscores the potential for emission mitigation through various levers, including land use optimization and the adoption of cleaner transportation modes. In conclusion, our findings emphasize the potential and feasibility of Kenya’s ambitious net−zero emissions target. To attain this goal, it is imperative to prioritize sustainable land use and innovative waste management strategies.
Ferreira M, da Silva Filho OL, da Silva Nascimento AB, et al., 2023, Time and cognitive development: from Vygotsky’s thinking to different notions of disability in the school environment, Humanities & Social Sciences Communications, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2662-9992
The perceptions about the structure of time are deeply entrenched in people’s minds. As such, they do not reveal themselves directly but are mediated by how it is possible to articulate concepts that assume these perceptions. This paper assesses how the notion of time can affect cognitive development, looking at Vygotsky’s works on defectology and other references, given that there is a gap regarding this articulation in specialized literature. For this purpose, it is argued that the notion of time often departs from an equivocal assumption of a linear time structure, influencing how we lead with disability issues in teaching and learning processes. The findings also show some consequences of such a departure in the conceptualization of deficiency, development, and time to the issue of the visibility of the so-called deficient, particularly concerning the school environment.
Ferreira M, Silva Filho OL, Batista MC, et al., 2023, Ficção científica na transposição didática do conceito de Entropia: a última pergunta de Isaac Asimov [Science fiction in the didactic transposition of the concept of Entropy: Isaac Asimov’s last question], Revista Brasileira de Ensino de Física, Vol: 45, ISSN: 1806-1117
This paper presents and analyzes the methodology for teaching the concept of entropy supported by a science fiction text. In previous publications, we have presented ways of articulating Ausubel’s Meaningful Learning and Matthew Lipman’s Education theories, the object of his Philosophy Program. We show how this articulation considers the prerogatives of meaningful learning, linking it to higher-order thinking established by research communities and suggesting aggregating methods. As a theoretical-methodological expansion of these references, we transferred the notion of didactic transposition, via science fiction texts, to reinforce these postulates about teaching and cognition. The translational research involved researchers from the field of Physics teaching and 58 second-year high school students from a public institution. In the pedagogical mediation, as a basis for the discussion of the concept of entropy in the Second Law of Thermodynamics, we use one of the most acclaimed short stories by the popular Russian-American author, Isaac Asimov, entitled “The Last Question”. For data analysis, we resorted to techniques of semantic frequency and medium order of evocation as constructs of a taxonomy for the investigation of social representations arising from the implemented proposition. The results indicated consistency with the perspective of meaningful learning, consolidating reflections for similar interventions and contiguous research.
Bessah E, Donkor E, Raji AO, et al., 2022, Factors affecting farmers' decision to harvest rainwater for maize production in Ghana, Frontiers in Water, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2624-9375
Climate change, especially the variability of rainfall patterns, poses a threat to maize production in Ghana. Some farmers harvest rainwater and store it for maize production to cope with unpredicted rainfall patterns. However, there are only a few studies on the adoption of rainwater harvesting for maize production. This study analyses the factors that influence farmers' decision to harvest rainwater for maize production in Ghana. A probit regression model is applied for the empirical analysis, using primary data from 344 maize farmers. The results show that 38% of the farmers harvest rainwater. We found that male farmers, farmers with primary education, large-scale farmers, experienced farmers, and those with access to weather information are more likely to harvest rainwater, while older farmers, those with limited access to extension services and labor, and those who perceive changes in rainfall pattern and amount of rainfall are associated with a lower probability to harvest rainwater for maize production. The findings suggest that enhancing farmers' access to weather information and extension services and improving awareness of climate change are needed to promote the adoption of rainwater harvesting. For gender inclusiveness in the adoption of rainwater harvesting, policies need to consider the needs of women.
Mouette D, Strapasson A, 2022, Applying System Dynamics in the Energy Sector: A Pedagogical Approach Using the 2050 Calculators for Climate Change Mitigation, Advances in Systems Sciences and Systems Practice, Publisher: ISSS, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1999-6918
The use of active methodologies, case studies and problem-based learning (PBL) can play a major role in critical pedagogy. This includes the use of system dynamics, which is a modelling approach based on variations of stocks and flows, and feedback loops. System dynamics can be applied in several areas, such as in energy and environmental education. We carried out a practical approach with a group of students from the Graduate Program in Energy (PPGE) at the University of Sao Paulo (USP), with the aim at introducing the use of integrated modeling techniques for a low carbon transition. The course was jointly lectured by the authors, involving 19 students in total from 2021 to 2022, via distance learning. The methodology was based on the 2050 Calculators and builds on previous publications and experiences of the second author while teaching at Imperial College London and IFP School. The calculators are system dynamics models for energy, land use, and carbon dynamics, aimed at simulating climate change mitigation pathways by 2050. The tools are available online and in fullly open access for several nations and regions, including a global version. They were used as a didactic tool for elaborating carbon mitigation scenarios and reflecting on energy policy strategies. The students were expected to understand the structure and segmentation of the different sectors that comprise a national energy system, including the definition of key variables and main assumptions involved in the models. The first part of the course focused on sharing knowledge on energy and carbon dynamics, definitions of scenarios, choice of technologies, and analysis of public policies. Supporting publications on energy and carbon modeling were also provided, including documents prepared by the Brazil’s Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MCTI), in collaboration with the UN Environment and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). In the second part of the course, the 2050 Calculators
Chaturvedi R, Strapasson A, Garg A, 2022, Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: Their Roles in India's Sustainable Development and Climate Action, Indian Forester, Vol: 148, Pages: 539-541, ISSN: 0019-4816
This Research Note provides some insights on the role of nature-based solutions for carbon mitigation in India, including scenario simulations by 2050. The results show that forests, trees, and agroforestry can provide major carbon reductions through sustainable land use nationwide, helping India to offset carbon emissions from hard-to-abate sectors.
Strapasson A, Weber Neiva Masulino N, Conti C, et al., 2022, Ethanol Power with Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, 4th Bioenergy Studies Symposium, Publisher: TAGEM, UNIDO, GEF
This study provides a new concept of negative emissions technology: the use of ethanol for power generation with carbon capture, utilization and storage (EPCCUS), as opposed to natural gas in conventional combined-cycle gas turbines. We carried out a global-scale lifecycle assessment and a local assessment of a thermopower station in Juiz de Fora, Brazil, which is a pioneering commercial facility to operate as a dual-fuel unit, through minor adaptations in its turbine system, although not having a carbon capture system yet. The assessment includes land use change effects, methane leakages, energy penalties, power stations with and without carbon capture from the flue gases, and the possibility of capturing CO2 emissions from fermentation tanks as well. EPCCUS builds on available technologies, providing major carbon removals and dispatchable power, while also increasing energy security. By simulating the use of an equivalent amount of ethanol currently produced worldwide (100 GL.y-1), the net avoided and reduced emissions combined would range between 0.2 and 0.4 GtCO2e.y-1, displacing about 5% of the natural gas used for power generation globally. This would require a harvested area of approximately 16 Mha of sugarcane or 37 Mha of corn in single cropping, based on average crop yields. Similarly, while substituting 100% of natural gas, this reduction would range between 3.7 and 7.4 GtCO2e.y-1, which are equivalent to 6.3% and 12.5% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of all sectors combined worldwide (59 GtCO2e.y-1). However, the annual harvested area required to achieve this extreme mitigation scenario would be about 323 Mha of sugarcane or 733 Mha of corn, which could be reduced using lignocellulosic ethanol. Our cost estimates suggest that EPCCUS would be already viable in some market niches, especially in liquefied natural gas importing countries, but it would require major policy support to be sustainably developed at scale.
Strapasson A, Ferreira M, Cruz-Cano D, et al., 2022, The use of system dynamics for energy and environmental education, International Journal of Educational Technology in Higher Education, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-31, ISSN: 2365-9440
The use of system dynamics as a learning tool for developing sustainable energy strategies and environmental education has advanced in recent years with the availability of new modelling software and webtools. Among the existing models, we highlight the online 2050 Calculators, which aim at simulating scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, energy planning, sustainable land use, and food consumption. The objective of this study is to assess the available calculators and their contribution to an interdisciplinary education via systems thinking. We carried out a review of the existing models worldwide and ran some of the tools with students from three different postgraduate programmes at master’s level at Imperial College London (United Kingdom) and IFP School (France), whilst also assessing their individual views afterwards. The assessments were conducted once a year during three subsequent years: 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results are discussed under the epistemology of critical pedagogy, showing that the use of webtools, such as the 2050 Calculators, can significantly contribute to thestudents’ environmental awareness and political engagement, providing important lessons about the use of system dynamics for policy and science education.
Roque AADO, Rocha JV, Strapasson A, 2022, Agricultura urbana e periurbana em São Paulo/Brasil, Ensino de Geografia e Redução de Riscos, Editors: Magnoni Júnior, Magnoni, Cabral, Torres, Castro, Londe, Serrano-Notivoli, Figueiredo, Barbosa, Prieto, São Paulo, Publisher: Centro Paula Souza, Pages: 404-433, ISBN: 978-65-87877-33-4
Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture in Sao Paulo/Brazil
Ferreira M, Silva Filho OL, Strapasson A, et al., 2021, Digital simulators in the epistemological context of Gagné and Vygotsky: a didactic intervention proposal on electricity and electrical circuits, Revista de Ensenanza de la Fisica, Vol: 33, Pages: 75-88, ISSN: 2250-6101
This article provides a didactic intervention proposal, using Robert Gagné and Lev Vygotsky as theoretical references, involving experimental simulators as a didactic resource. Such references are harmonized with each other, and, as a result of this merge, important elements for to the teaching and learning process in Physics emerge. The use of simulators considers the increasing usage of Digital Information and Communication Technologies by students immersed in a digital culture and their relevance for the development of social-interactionist skills, which form the basis of Vygotsky’s perspective. The suggested didactic intervention deals with the theme of electricity and the construction of electrical circuits as a practical example of the application of simulators in the pedagogical process. In addition, aligned with this theoretical framework, the concept of Zone of Proximal Development’s used to assess both students and the teacher’s didactics.
Bessah E, Raji AO, Taiwo OJ, et al., 2021, Gender-based variations in the perception of climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the Pra River Basin of Ghana, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol: 13, Pages: 435-462, ISSN: 1756-8692
Purpose: This study aims to assess gender-based differences on farmers’ perception of impacts and vulnerability to climate change and the implementation of adaptation strategies in the Pra River Basin of Ghana, while also providing lessons for other Sub-Saharan nations and regions with similar conditions. || Design/methodology/approach: The study used semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to collect data from 344 farmers, 64 participants in focus group discussions and 6 agriculture extension officers (key informants) from 10 districts in the Pra River Basin of Ghana. || Findings: Results showed several differences in how climate change is perceived and tackled by male and female genders. In the perception of male farmers, for example, they were found to be more vulnerable to increased temperature, and changes in rainfall and growing season, whereas female farmers on average were considered to be less resilient to floods and droughts for different reasons. Moreover, floods posed higher risks to farming than other climate change impacts. Gender roles had a significant correlation with the type of adaptation strategies practised. Men adopted agrochemicals more often than women, as an adaptation strategy. || Research limitations/implications: Gender-differentiated interventions should be incorporated in the national climate change action plan for sustainable development in a rain-fed agricultural economy such as Ghana. The study recommends several actions to promote gender equity in the assessed region. || Originality/value: This research assessed the gender differentials in climate trends, impact, vulnerability and adaptation based on primary data collected between April and May 2019 and compared the results with climate data in the basin for the period 1991–2014. It is an empirical study focused on primary data analysis obtained in loco by authors, involving approximately 400 participants.
Strapasson A, Lee H, Schnettler J, 2021, Biofuels and the Water-Energy Nexus: Perspectives for the United States, Cambridge, MA, United States, Publisher: Belfer Center, Harvard University
HIGHLIGHTS: To date, biofuel production in the U.S. has not been limited by water availability. Some simulations show that it is possible to expand corn-based ethanol nationwide over the next ten years without causing an additional use of water and land resources. Conventional ethanol production could reach approximately 19 billion gallons in 2030/31 crop year, representing a 28% increase from current levels, based on yield growth on existing acreage and without changing the annual corn exports and internal stocks. To double current ethanol production in ten years without an acreage expansion, achieving about 32 billion gallons in 2030/31, would require the reallocation of corn from other uses. Otherwise, an increase in existing corn area might be required, which could exacerbate water scarcity in some areas, if precautionary measures are not addressed. Policies and regulations should establish clear incentives to reduce agricultural water withdrawals in water stressed areas in favor of rain-fed crops. To the extent possible, they should also account for changing climatic conditions. Future policies should support sustainable water management and develop markets for advanced biofuels, aiming to minimize both irrigation and carbon intensity.
Bessah E, Raji AO, Taiwo OJ, et al., 2021, Assessment of surface waters and pollution impacts in Southern Ghana, Hydrology Research, Vol: 52, Pages: 1423-1435, ISSN: 1998-9563
Illegal mining and inappropriate use of agrochemicals have exacerbated surface water pollution in Ghana. The quality of water has changed, and knowledge of their current condition is important for formulating policies to conserve the country’s water bodies. This study assessed the quality of surface waters in Ghana’s Pra River Basin. A survey of 344 local farmers randomly sampled was conducted and a physicochemical analysis of 33 water samples collected from 25 rivers in the basin. Boreholes are the main source of drinking water for 85% of farmers, and they assessed water quality by its appearance. Rainwater provides over 50% of the water needed by the respondents for domestic use. River water was mainly used for crop production and only secondarily for domestic use. At more than 80% of the sampled sites, pH, Fe and P were above the WHO recommended values, while Pb was exceeded at 30% of the sites. Cu, Hg, As and Fe were above permissible levels for irrigation, especially near the mining areas. The poor quality of river water makes it unusable despite its availability. A more effective and efficient land-use policy focusing on buffer zone protection is recommended to minimise water quality degradation in the basin.
Ferreira D, Strapasson A, Gomes Tininis A, et al., 2021, Biodiesel in Brazil: Challenges and opportunities for a sustainable energy transition, Energy Transition, Generational Justice and Climate Change: The role of fossil fuels and low carbon economy, Editors: Medeiros Costa, Rio de Janeiro, Publisher: Letra Capital, Pages: 264-291, ISBN: 9786589925224
Strapasson A, Falcão J, Rossberg T, et al., 2021, Land Use Change and the European Biofuels Policy: The expansion of oilseed feedstocks on lands with high carbon stocks, Turkey, 3rd Bioenergy Studies Symposium, Publisher: TAGEM and UNIDO, Pages: 69-69
Strapasson A, Lee H, Schnettler J, 2021, Biofuels and the Energy-Water Nexus: Perspectives for the United States, Turkey, 3rd Bioenergy Studies Symposium, Publisher: TAGEM and UNIDO, Pages: 65-65
Ferreira D, Strapasson A, Tininis A, et al., 2021, Biodiesel in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Energy Transition, Turkey, 3rd Bioenergy Studies Symposium, Publisher: TAGEM and UNIDO, Pages: 72-72
Schlindwein SL, Vasconcelos ACFD, Bonatti M, et al., 2021, Agricultural land use dynamics in the Brazilian part of La Plata Basin: From driving forces to societal responses, Land Use Policy, Vol: 107, ISSN: 0264-8377
This paper provides an analysis of the land use dynamics observed in the Brazilian part of La Plata Basin (BR-LPB) from 1988 to 2018, including major crops such as maize, soybean, wheat, and sugarcane. It also assesses the perception of farmers and other stakeholders on climate change effects and the design of adaptation strategies. Two case studies were carried out and the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual framework was used to structure the complex relationships driving current land use dynamics in BR-LPB. The first case was an assessment of land use change based on the cultivated area of annual and semi-perennial crops over the whole BR-LPB, using macro-spatial data from 1988 to 2018. The second case consisted of a survey carried out in the municipality of Anchieta to assess at local level if land use change has been driven by the perception of farmers on climate change and its effects. When contrasted with changes on average annual temperature and precipitation for the same time period, the results show that land use dynamics in the BR-LPB as a whole was mostly driven by an increased global demand for food commodities rather than by climate effects, whereas at local level the perception of farmers on climate change effects has already influenced the adoption of adaptation strategies. No evidence was found that climate dynamics has significantly influenced the geography of agricultural land use in the BR-LPB in this period. While using the DPSIR framework, the results of both case studies highlight important inter-relationships allowing a comprehensive overview on how land use change in the BR-LPB is related to some major drivers (e.g. population growth, growing demand of agricultural products, and droughts) and how they might influence the design of purposeful adaptation responses and policy making.
Strapasson A, Oduor CO, Domeniconi B, 2021, Livestock Production, Life Cycle Assessment: A Metric for the Circular Economy, Editors: Borrion, Black, Mwabonje, London, Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry, Pages: 290-316, ISBN: 978-1-78801-445-8
In this chapter, livestock production is assessed in the context of the circular economy (CE). It starts with an overview of livestock production chains, followed by two country-level case studies: a discussion on the sustainability of beef production in Brazil, which is currently the largest beef-exporting nation globally; and an assessment of carbon cycles of pasturelands in Kenya. We then present a description of a global simulation tool on behavioural changes in diets, land use and livestock yield by 2050. The global simulation tool is called the Global Calculator, and can generate multiple scenarios for land use, energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, the chapter provides a systems view on livestock production, from local to global, with theoretical simulations and practical examples. The results show that sustainable meat production is dependent on several interconnected issues, requiring complex systems models to be properly assessed and understood. However, two relatively simple measures can be taken in order to reduce the environmental footprint of livestock production: a sustainable increase in livestock productivity along with a reduction in per capita meat consumption, especially in nations that already have high consumption levels. To this end, actions related to agricultural management, land multiuse, behavioural changes and animal welfare must be part of a policy agenda for climate change mitigation and environmental conservation worldwide.
Bessah E, Donkor E, Raji AO, et al., 2021, Determinants of Maize Farmers’ Access to Climate Information Services in Ghana, Handbook of Climate Change Management, Editors: Leal Filho, Luetz, Ayal, Publisher: Springer, Pages: 1-20, ISBN: 9783030227593
Agriculture plays a central role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Ghana. However, climate change impacts may reduce the potential of agriculture to achieve SDGs, given that the agricultural sector in Ghana is heavily dependent on rainfall and prevailed by smallholder farmers, with limited access to agronomical assistance and climate information. Lack of empirical evidence on farmers’ access to climate information services (CIS) is a challenge. This chapter focused on the analysis of the factors that influence maize farmers’ access to CIS based on a field study carried out in selected districts of Ashanti, Central, and Eastern regions of Ghana. A binary probit regression model was employed in the empirical analysis of 344 maize farmers’ access to several types of local services. The results revealed that a low percentage of farmers has received CIS. Access to health-care facility, market, tarred road, native farmers, farm size, and climate change awareness level have a significant positive correlation with the farmers’ likelihood of receiving CIS. Although correlation does not necessarily mean causality, the results show that access to climate services must be understood as part of a broader development issue in Ghana. Therefore, it is not sufficient to invest in the provision of high-quality climate information alone, but also ensure that smallholder farmers get such information and receive the necessary support to effectively use this information for improving their agricultural practices, while reducing their local vulnerabilities to climate change.
Vallejo L, Mazur C, Strapasson A, et al., 2021, Halving Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: Technologies and Costs, International Energy Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 147-158, ISSN: 1513-718X
This study provides a whole-systems simulation on how to halve global CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to 2010, with an emphasis on technologies and costs, in order to avoid a dangerous increase in the global mean surface temperature by end the of this century. There still remains uncertainty as to how much a low-carbon energy system costs compared to a high-carbon system. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) show a large range of costs of mitigation towards the 2°C target, with up to an order of magnitude difference between the highest and lowest cost, depending on a number of factors including model structure, technology availability and costs, and the degree of feedback with the wider macro-economy. A simpler analysis potentially serves to highlight where costs fall and to what degree. Here we show that the additional cost of a low-carbon energy system is less than 1% of global GDP more than a system resulting from low mitigation effort. The proposed approach aligns with some previous IAMs and other projections discussed in the paper, whilst also providing a clearer and more detailed view of the world. Achieving this system by 2050, with CO2 emissions of about 15GtCO2, depends heavily on decarbonisation of the electricity sector to around 100gCO2/kWh, as well as on maximising energy efficiency potential across all sectors. This scenario would require a major mitigation effort in all the assessed world regions. However, in order to keep the global mean surface temperature increase below 1.5°C, it would be necessary to achieve net-zero emission by 2050, requiring a much further mitigation effort.
Bessah E, Donkor E, Raji AO, et al., 2021, Determinants of Maize Farmers’ Access to Climate Information Services in Ghana, Handbook of Climate Change Management: Research, Leadership, Transformation, Pages: 4173-4192, ISBN: 9783030572808
Agriculture plays a central role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Ghana. However, climate change impacts may reduce the potential of agriculture to achieve SDGs, given that the agricultural sector in Ghana is heavily dependent on rainfall and prevailed by smallholder farmers, with limited access to agronomical assistance and climate information. Lack of empirical evidence on farmers’ access to climate information services (CIS) is a challenge. This chapter focused on the analysis of the factors that influence maize farmers’ access to CIS based on a field study carried out in selected districts of Ashanti, Central, and Eastern regions of Ghana. A binary probit regression model was employed in the empirical analysis of 344 maize farmers’ access to several types of local services. The results revealed that a low percentage of farmers has received CIS. Access to health-care facility, market, tarred road, native farmers, farm size, and climate change awareness level have a significant positive correlation with the farmers’ likelihood of receiving CIS. Although correlation does not necessarily mean causality, the results show that access to climate services must be understood as part of a broader development issue in Ghana. Therefore, it is not sufficient to invest in the provision of high-quality climate information alone, but also ensure that smallholder farmers get such information and receive the necessary support to effectively use this information for improving their agricultural practices, while reducing their local vulnerabilities to climate change.
Roque AADO, Rocha JV, Seixas SRDC, et al., 2020, Vulnerabilidade agrária-socioambiental em São Paulo, Redução do risco de desastres e a resiliência no meio rural e urbano, Editors: Magnoni Júnior, Freitas, Lopes, Castro, Barbosa, Londe, Magnoni, Silva, Teixeira, Figueiredo, São Paulo, Brazil, Publisher: Centro Paula Souza and AGB Bauru, Pages: 162-199, ISBN: 9786587877129
Ferreira D, Strapasson A, Tininis AG, et al., 2020, Biodiesel no Brasil: desafios e oportunidades para uma transição energética sustentável, Transição Energética, Justiça Geracional e Mudanças Climáticas, Rio de Janeiro, Publisher: Editora Lumen Juris, Pages: 319-347, ISBN: 9786555103694
O biodiesel foi inserido na matriz energética brasileira em 2005, por meio de uma política pública robusta que deu suporte ao desenvolvimento da indústria e da agricultura, criando um mercado compulsório que se ampliou aos atuais 12%, com previsão de 15% em mescla ao diesel mineral até 2023 e com metas de inclusão social e desenvolvimento regional. Passados 15 anos, o PNPB vive um momento de revisões seja pelo avanço tecnológico ou pelo processo de desinvestimento da Petrobras, que detém papel fundamental na comercialização do biodiesel por meio de leiloes. No caso dos avanços tecnológicos, o movimento de eletrificação da frota e da inovação na produção de biocombustíveis avançados para motores ciclo diesel, já em produção e comercialização em outros países, implicam em revisões na regulação, de maneira que não se imponham barreiras aos avanços, sobretudo aqueles que reduzem emissões de GEE e aumentam a eficiência global dos processos produtivos associados aos biocombustíveis. Além disso, é importante que tais avanços sejam analisados e introduzidos sob uma ótica holística que considere o desenvolvimento social no tripé da sustentabilidade. No caso dos leiloes, a maturidade alcançada pelo segmento vislumbra a possibilidade de uma abertura do mercado, a qual possibilitaria maior competitividade, considerando a possibilidade de livre negociação entre distribuidoras e usinas produtoras, melhorando o sinal de preço. Nesse contexto, há a possibilidade de modernização do selo combustível social, de forma a aumentar a sua efetividade frente aos objetivos iniciais do programa.
Bessah E, Raji A, Taiwo O, et al., 2020, Extreme changes of daily rainfall and temperature patterns in a tropical sub-humid basin: A statistical downscaling assessment for the 21st century, Climate Change Virtual 2020: Exploring the possibilities to overcome climate change challenges, Publisher: Magus Group, Pages: 21-22
Climate change has exacerbated the occurrence of extreme weather events in many regions worldwide. The objective of this study was to assess extreme temperature and rainfall variations in the Pra River Basin (a tropical sub-humid basin in Ghana), as a case-study potentially applicable to other similar regions globally. The methodology was based on the use of different climate models. Firstly, we tested the capability of the statistical downscaling model SDSM-DC to simulate past extreme climate indices for the period 1981 – 2010 (observed). We then projected temperature indices for the period 2011 – 2100 under CMIP5 RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios in the basin. Ten rainfall and nine temperature extreme indices were examined and the accuracy of SDSM-DC was evaluated with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Percent bias. The results show that observed number of heavy precipitation days increased, whilst consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days decreased, although the trend was not significant. Moreover, observed warm and cool temperature generally showed a significant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. Performance analysis shows that SDSM-DC had a poor accuracy level in simulating rainfall indices; however, whilst simulating TX90p, TX10p, TN10p and DTR, the model was acceptable at more than 50% of the stations. Generally, TX90p showed a significant increasing trend, whereas TX10p, TN10p and DTR showed a significant decreasing trend between 2011 and 2100 under both RCP4.5 and 8.5. By 2100, under the RCP4.5 scenario, TX90p, TX10p, TN10p and DTR could increase by 0.72%, 0.36%, 0.35% and decrease 0.08°C respectively; whereas under the RCP8.5 scenario it could increase by 0.73%, 0.32%, 0.34% and decrease 0.15°C respectively. Therefore, the continuous warming trend poses threat to water resources, food security (including pest invasion, e.g. armyworms) and human health in the basin. The findings are relevant for adaptation and management
Strapasson A, Woods J, Meessen J, et al., 2020, EU land use futures: modelling food, bioenergy and carbon dynamics, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol: 31, Pages: 100545-100545, ISSN: 2211-467X
This paper presents an original system dynamics model, which aims to assess how changes in diet, agricultural practices, bioenergy and forestry could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We demonstrate that changes in types and quantities of food consumed and reductions in food wastes along with sustainable bioenergy and forestry dynamics would materially assist the EU in meeting its 2050 climate mitigation obligations. We find that overall rates of EU-28 greenhouse gas emissions are highly sensitive to the food trade balance, both within and outside the EU. Land use itself is often under-represented as a major option for carbon mitigation in policy strategies, but our results show that it must become a central component aligned with energy system decarbonization if material levels of warming mitigation are to be achieved.
Strapasson A, Woods J, Pérez-Cirera V, et al., 2020, Modelling carbon mitigation pathways by 2050: insights from the global calculator, Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol: 29, Pages: 100494-100494, ISSN: 2211-467X
The Global Calculator (GC) can be used to assess a wide range of climate change mitigation pathways. The GC is an accessible integrated model which calculates the cumulative emissions of a basket of the main greenhouse gases that result from a set of technological and lifestyle choices made at the global level and as defined by the user within a single system dynamics tool. Using the GC, we simulated ambitious scenarios against business as usual trends in order to stay below 2oC and 1.5oC of maximum temperature change by the end of this century and carried out a sensitivity analysis of the entire GC model option space. We show that the calculator is useful for making broad simulations for energy, carbon and land use dynamics, and demonstrate how combined and sustained mitigation efforts across different sectors are urgently needed to meet climate targets.
Li Y, Strapasson A, Rojas O, 2020, Assessment of El Nino and La Nina impacts on China: Enhancing the Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES, Vol: 27, ISSN: 2212-0947
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- Citations: 29
Strapasson A, Mwabonje O, Woods J, et al., 2020, Pathways towards a fair and just net-zero emissions Europe by 2050: Insights from the EUCalc for carbon mitigation strategies, Publisher: European Commission, 9
HEADLINES:• Achieving socially just and sustainable transition to a net-zero emissions Europe by 2050 requires urgent and substantive changes in the use of technology and the behavioural choices of its people. • These changes will be pervasive, covering all sectors of the economy, from transport, manufacturing, agriculture and power generation. The choices we make as individuals and as national governments of services and goods we produce and consume, e.g. the foods we grow and eat, the sizes of our households and how we heat and cool them, our mobility and in our trading relationships with the rest of the world, are key determinants of successfully meeting the climate challenge. • It is possible to achieve a net-zero greenhouse gas emission in Europe by 2050, in time to meet global climate targets, but it requires unprecedented levels of innovations in technologies and in the adoption of sustainable lifestyles, diets and land use. • Avoiding confounding carbon leakage: the international trade balance (imports vs. exports) in the EU has and will continue to have a significant impact on internal EU and external (rest of the world) greenhouse gas emissions, materially affecting the EU’s timeline to achieving net zero and globally effective climate mitigation.• Policies that support the accelerated decoupling of economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions are needed along with incentives for the rest of the world to decarbonise if confounding leakage is to be avoided. • No single sector can, by itself, materially reduce or sequester greenhouse gases; however, actions affecting the carbon stocks on land and the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are urgently required. • Systemic changes at personal, local, national and regional levels are all important and publicly acceptable policies for transitioning to a net-zero emissions society are fundamental in order to meet the EU climate change targets. • Tools, such as th
Strapasson A, Woods J, Donaldson A, 2020, Bulb Calculator: An Independent Review, London, Publisher: Imperial College Consultants
Report commissioned by Bulb Energy Limited (UK). This report is the independent expert opinion of the authors.
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