28 results found
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC, 2020, Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol, Nature, Vol: 582, Pages: 73-77, ISSN: 0028-0836
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and per
Taddei C, Jackson R, Zhou B, et al., 2020, National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: an analysis of trends in Asian and Western countries, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 49, Pages: 173-192, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease (CHD), multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries.Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol, and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group.Results: Since ~1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, ~0.4 mmol/Lper decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ~0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ~26% decline in CHD risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only weak correlation to changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.
Jaime Miranda J, Carrillo-Larco RM, Ferreccio C, et al., 2020, Trends in cardiometabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: E123-E133, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundDescribing the prevalence and trends of cardiometabolic risk factors that are associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is crucial for monitoring progress, planning prevention, and providing evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure, and diabetes in the Americas, between 1980 and 2014.MethodsWe did a pooled analysis of population-based studies with data on anthropometric measurements, biomarkers for diabetes, and blood pressure from adults aged 18 years or older. A Bayesian model was used to estimate trends in BMI, raised blood pressure (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg), and diabetes (fasting plasma glucose ≥7·0 mmol/L, history of diabetes, or diabetes treatment) from 1980 to 2014, in 37 countries and six subregions of the Americas.Findings389 population-based surveys from the Americas were available. Comparing prevalence estimates from 2014 with those of 1980, in the non-English speaking Caribbean subregion, the prevalence of obesity increased from 3·9% (95% CI 2·2–6·3) in 1980, to 18·6% (14·3–23·3) in 2014, in men; and from 12·2% (8·2–17·0) in 1980, to 30·5% (25·7–35·5) in 2014, in women. The English-speaking Caribbean subregion had the largest increase in the prevalence of diabetes, from 5·2% (2·1–10·4) in men and 6·4% (2·6–10·4) in women in 1980, to 11·1% (6·4–17·3) in men and 13·6% (8·2–21·0) in women in 2014). Conversely, the prevalence of raised blood pressure has decreased in all subregions; the largest decrease was found in North America from 27·6% (22·3–33·2) in men and 19·9% (15·8–24·4) in women in 1980, to 15·
Carrillo Larco R, Di Cesare MC, Ezzati M, et al., Transitions of cardio-metabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014, The Lancet Global Health, ISSN: 2214-109X
Background: Describing the levels and trends of cardio-metabolic risk factors associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is vital for monitoring progress, planning prevention and provide evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure (RBP) and diabetes in the Americas, 1980-2014.Methods: Pooled analysis of population-based studies with data on anthropometric measurements, biomarkers for diabetes, and blood pressure from adults aged 18+ years. A Bayesian model was used to estimate trends in BMI, RBP (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg) and diabetes(fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes, or diabetes treatment) from 1980 to 2014 in 37 countries and 6 sub-regions of the Americas.Findings: 389 population-based surveys from the Americas were available. Comparing the 2014 with the 1980 prevalence estimates, the obesity ratio was the largest in the non-English-speaking Caribbean sub-region (4.71 in men and 2.50 in women) showing that the prevalence in 2014 for men is almost five times larger than it was in 1980. The English-speaking Caribbean sub-region had the largest ratio regarding diabetes (2.14 in men and 2.13 in women). Conversely, the ratio for RBP signals that the frequency of this condition has diminished across the region; the largest decrease was found in North America (0.56 in men and 0.54 in women). Interpretation: Despite the generally high prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors across the Americas region, estimates also show a high level of heterogeneity in the transition between countries.
Zhou B, Danaei G, Stevens GA, et al., 2019, Long-term and recent trends in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in 12 high-income countries: an analysis of 123 nationally representative surveys, Lancet, Vol: 394, Pages: 639-651, ISSN: 0140-6736
Background: Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment and control, and how they have changed over time, in high-income countries. Methods: We used data on 526,336 participants aged 40-79 years in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in twelve high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the percent of participants with hypertension – defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90mmHg or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension – who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (i.e. lower than 140/90 mmHg). Findings: Canada, South Korea, Australia and the UK have the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were below 25% in most countries and age-sex groups. Over time, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all twelve countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries.Canada, Germany, South Korea and the USA have the highest rates of awareness, treatment and control, while Finland, Ireland, Japan and Spain the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were below 70%. Interpretation: Hypertension awareness, treatment and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in high-quality hypertension
Bixby H, Bentham J, Zhou B, et al., 2019, Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic, Nature, Vol: 569, Pages: 260-264, ISSN: 0028-0836
Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
Ji W, Zhou B, Zhao B, 2019, Potential reductions in premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 by reducing indoor pollution: A model analysis for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei of China, Environmental Pollution, Vol: 245, Pages: 260-271, ISSN: 0269-7491
BackgroundChina has one of the highest PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm) pollution levels in the world. It might still be long before air quality reaches the National Class II standard of 35 μg/m3.ObjectiveWe aim to estimate the potential reduction in premature mortality by reducing indoor PM2.5 levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and compare it with reducing outdoor levels.MethodsWe combined PM2.5 transport model and the Global Burden of Disease (2016) methodology to estimate potential reductions in premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 by reducing indoor PM2.5 to National Class I standard of 15 μg/m3, and compared with reducing outdoor PM2.5 to Government 2020 Interim target of 64 μg/m3 or National Class II standard of 35 μg/m3.ResultsA total of 74,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 43,000–111,000) premature deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure in 2013. Thirty percent, or 22,000 (95% CI: 17,000–32,000) deaths, would have been averted if indoor PM2.5 had reached the National Class I standard. The benefit is greater than that from reaching the Government 2020 Interim target for outdoor PM2.5 [22%, or 16,000 (95% CI: 12,000–23,000), deaths], although still smaller than that from reaching the National Class II standard [42%, or 31,000 (95% CI: 24,000–45,000), deaths].ConclusionsReaching the National Class I level of indoor PM2.5 at current outdoor pollution levels could bring considerable health benefits, which are comparable to those from reaching the Government 2020 Interim target for outdoor PM2.5.Main findingsThe avertable premature deaths gained from cleaning indoor PM2.5 to National Class I standard level would be greater than reducing outdoor PM2.5 to Government 2020 Interim target.
Zhao B, Chen C, Zhou B, 2018, Is there a timelier solution to air pollution in today's cities?, LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: E240-E240
Pearson-Stuttard J, Zhou B, Kontis V, et al., 2018, Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index: a comparative risk assessment, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 6, Pages: E6-E15, ISSN: 2213-8587
Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, et al., 2018, Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1,018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 47, Pages: 872-883i, ISSN: 1464-3685
BackgroundChange in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.MethodsWe pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20–29 years to 70–79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.ResultsIn 2005–16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.ConclusionsChange in mean bloo
Arku RE, Ezzati M, Baumgartner J, et al., 2018, Elevated blood pressure and household solid fuel use in premenopausal women: Analysis of 12 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 10 countries, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 160, Pages: 499-505, ISSN: 0013-9351
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC, 2017, Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults., Lancet, Vol: 390, Pages: 2627-2642, ISSN: 0140-6736
BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m(2) per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m(2) per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m(2) per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m(2) per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m(2) per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Tre
Kenge AP, Bentham J, Zhou B, et al., 2017, Trends in obesity and diabetes across regions in Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies., International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 46, Pages: 1421-1432, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background: The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and other NCDs advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends, from 1980 to 2014, in age-standardised mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation.Methods: We pooled data from African and world-wide population-based studies which measured height, weight, and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged >18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends, by sex, for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions, (central, eastern, northern, southern and western) in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of >7.0 mmol/L, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). ResultsAfrican data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n=17), Nigeria (n=15) and Egypt (n=13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n=8), Tunisia (n=7), Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n=6). The age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardised prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9 % (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence
Ezzati M, Zhou B, Riley L, et al., 2017, Challenges of monitoring global diabetes prevalence, Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 5, Pages: 162-162, ISSN: 2213-8595
Ueda P, Woodward M, Lu Y, et al., 2017, Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys., Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 5, Pages: 196-213, ISSN: 2213-8595
BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS: Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for
Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, et al., 2016, Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1,479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants, The Lancet, Vol: 389, Pages: 37-55, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the es
Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
Zhou B, Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, et al., 2016, Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants, Lancet, Vol: 387, Pages: 1513-1530, ISSN: 1474-547X
BackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalenc
Di Cesare M, Bentham J, Stevens GA, et al., 2016, Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants, Lancet, Vol: 387, Pages: 1377-1396, ISSN: 1474-547X
BackgroundUnderweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.MethodsWe analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of un
Ezzati M, Danaei G, Fahimi S, et al., 2015, Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331 288 participants, The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, Vol: 3, Pages: 624-637, ISSN: 2213-8587
Background: Over time, diabetes has been defined based on different biomarkers, includingfasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-hour plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT) and,more recently, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). We examined the influence of diagnostic definitions on boththe population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously-undiagnosed individuals aswith vs. without diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examinationsurveys in different world regions.
Hajifathalian K, Ueda P, Lu Y, et al., 2015, A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk): a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health examination surveys, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 3, Pages: 339-355, ISSN: 2213-8587
Zhou B, Zhao B, 2014, Analysis of Intervention Strategies for Inhalation Exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Associated Lung Cancer Risk Based on a Monte Carlo Population Exposure Assessment Model, PLOS ONE, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1932-6203
Chen R, Zhou B, Kan H, et al., 2013, Associations of particulate air pollution and daily mortality in 16 Chinese cities: An improved effect estimate after accounting for the indoor exposure to particles of outdoor origin, ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, Vol: 182, Pages: 278-282, ISSN: 0269-7491
Zhou B, Zhao B, Guo X, et al., 2013, Investigating the geographical heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES): A potential role of indoor exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 75, Pages: 217-223, ISSN: 1352-2310
Zhou B, Zhao B, 2012, Population inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk in Beijing region: Contributions of indoor and outdoor sources and exposures, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 62, Pages: 472-480, ISSN: 1352-2310
Wang S, Zhao B, Zhou B, et al., 2012, An experimental study on short-time particle resuspension from inner surfaces of straight ventilation ducts, BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 53, Pages: 119-127, ISSN: 0360-1323
Zhu Y, Zhao B, Zhou B, et al., 2012, A Particle Resuspension Model in Ventilation Ducts, AEROSOL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 46, Pages: 222-235, ISSN: 0278-6826
Zhou B, Zhao B, Tan Z, 2011, How Particle Resuspension from Inner Surfaces of Ventilation Ducts Affects Indoor Air Quality-A Modeling Analysis, AEROSOL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 45, Pages: 996-1009, ISSN: 0278-6826
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