Imperial College London

Professor Christl Donnelly FMedSci FRS

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Statistical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3394c.donnelly Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG7Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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250 results found

Anderson R, Farrell S, Turner H, Walson J, Donnelly CA, Truscott Jet al., 2017, Assessing the interruption of the transmission of human helminths with mass drug administration alone: optimizing the design of cluster randomized trials, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1756-3305

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Brunton LA, Donnelly CA, O'Connor H, Prosser A, Ashfield S, Ashton A, Upton P, Mitchell A, Goodchild AV, Parry JE, Downs SHet al., 2017, Assessing the effects of the first 2years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013-2015, ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, Vol: 7, Pages: 7213-7230, ISSN: 2045-7758

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dawkins MS, Roberts SJ, Cain RJ, Nickson T, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Early warning of footpad dermatitis and hockburn in broiler chicken flocks using optical flow, bodyweight and water consumption, VETERINARY RECORD, Vol: 180, Pages: 499-U60, ISSN: 0042-4900

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, EUROSURVEILLANCE, Vol: 22, Pages: 10-13, ISSN: 1560-7917

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2017, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence., Epidemics

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen "future" simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes - other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals - that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence.

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Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Aiyar S, Akanda S, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Eyadhy A, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlov J, Arora M, Al A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bejot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabe E, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bjerregaard P, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bukhman G, Negesa L, Bulto B, Bumgarner BR, Burch M, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Car M, Crdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro FF, Castro RE, Catala-Lopez F, Chen H, Chiang PP-C, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi J-YJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colquhoun SM, Coresh J, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deiparine Set al., 2017, Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, LANCET, Vol: 390, Pages: 1084-1150, ISSN: 0140-6736

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2017, Use of farm buildings by wild badgers: implications for the transmission of bovine tuberculosis, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE RESEARCH, Vol: 63, ISSN: 1612-4642

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2017, Ranging behaviour of badgers Meles meles vaccinated with Bacillus Calmette Guerin, JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 54, Pages: 718-725, ISSN: 0021-8901

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Bielby J, Vial F, Woodroffe R, Donnelly CAet al., 2016, Localised Badger Culling Increases Risk of Herd Breakdown on Nearby, Not Focal, Land, PLOS ONE, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Blake IM, Chenoweth P, Okayasu H, Donnelly CA, Aylward RB, Grassly NCet al., 2016, Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication, EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 22, Pages: 449-456, ISSN: 1080-6040

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Bourhy H, Nakoune E, Hall M, Nouvellet P, Lepelletier A, Talbi C, Watier L, Holmes EC, Cauchemez S, Lemey P, Donnelly CA, Rambaut Aet al., 2016, Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting, PLOS PATHOGENS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-7366

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basanez M-G, Nouvellet P, Lessler Jet al., 2016, Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 353-354, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Frise R, Bradley K, van Doremalen N, Galiano M, Elderfield RA, Stilwell P, Ashcroft JW, Fernandez-Alonso M, Miah S, Lackenby A, Roberts KL, Donnelly CA, Barclay WSet al., 2016, Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2045-2322

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske Tet al., 2016, A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 95, Pages: 1435-1439

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Majeed A, Hansell A, Saxena S, Millett C, Ward H, Harris M, Hayhoe B, Car J, Easton G, Donnelly CA, Perneczky R, Jarvelin M-R, Ezzati M, Rawaf S, Vineis P, Ferguson N, Riboli Eet al., 2016, How would a decision to leave the European Union affect medical research and health in the United Kingdom?, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF MEDICINE, Vol: 109, Pages: 216-218, ISSN: 0141-0768

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2016, Badgers prefer cattle pasture but avoid cattle: implications for bovine tuberculosis control, ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 19, Pages: 1201-1208, ISSN: 1461-023X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2015, Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 372, Pages: 1274-1277, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Carvalho DO, McKemey AR, Garziera L, Lacroix R, Donnelly CA, Alphey L, Malavasi A, Capurro MLet al., 2015, Suppression of a Field Population of Aedes aegypti in Brazil by Sustained Release of Transgenic Male Mosquitoes, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Donnelly CA, Bento AI, Goodchild AV, Downs SHet al., 2015, Exploration of the power of routine surveillance data to assess the impacts of industry-led badger culling on bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds, VETERINARY RECORD, Vol: 177, ISSN: 0042-4900

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Donnelly CA, Woodroffe R, 2015, Badger-cull targets unlikely to reduce TB, NATURE, Vol: 526, Pages: 640-640, ISSN: 0028-0836

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Aguas R, Donnelly CA, Guy B, Coudeville L, Jackson N, Saville M, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, Modelling the immunological response to a tetravalent dengue vaccine from multiple phase-2 trials in Latin America and South East Asia, VACCINE, Vol: 33, Pages: 3746-3751, ISSN: 0264-410X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Kucharski AJ, Mills HL, Donnelly CA, Riley Set al., 2015, Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014, EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 21, Pages: 852-855, ISSN: 1080-6040

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernan MAet al., 2015, Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics, NATURE, Vol: 528, Pages: S109-S116, ISSN: 0028-0836

JOURNAL ARTICLE

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