Imperial College London

Professor Christl Donnelly CBE FMedSci FRS

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Statistical Epidemiology
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3394c.donnelly Website

 
 
//

Location

 

UG7Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

270 results found

Anders KL, Cutcher Z, Kleinschmidt I, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Indriani C, O'Neill SL, Jewell NP, Simmons CPet al., 2018, Cluster Randomized Test-Negative Design (CR-TND) Trials: A Novel and Efficient Method to Assess the Efficacy of Community Level Dengue Interventions., Am J Epidemiol

Cluster randomized trials are the gold standard for assessing efficacy of community-level interventions, such as vector control strategies against dengue. We describe a novel cluster randomized trial methodology with a test-negative design, which offers advantages over traditional approaches. It utilizes outcome-based sampling of patients presenting with a syndrome consistent with the disease of interest, who are subsequently classified as test-positive cases or test-negative controls on the basis of diagnostic testing. We use simulations of a cluster trial to demonstrate validity of efficacy estimates under the test-negative approach. This demonstrates that, provided study arms are balanced for both test-negative and test-positive illness at baseline and that other test-negative design assumptions are met, the efficacy estimates closely match true efficacy. We also briefly discuss analytical considerations for an odds ratio-based effect estimate arising from clustered data, and outline potential approaches to analysis. We conclude that application of the test-negative design to certain cluster randomized trials could increase their efficiency and ease of implementation.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Barry A, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Ali Ahmed Y, Allarangar Y, Anoko J, Archer BN, Aruna Abedi A, Bagaria J, Belizaire MRD, Bhatia S, Bokenge T, Bruni E, Cori A, Dabire E, Diallo AM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dorji TC, Escobar Corado Waeber AR, Fall IS, Ferguson NM, FitzJohn RG, Folefack Tengomo GL, Formenty PBH, Forna A, Fortin A, Garske T, Gaythorpe KA, Gurry C, Hamblion E, Harouna Djingarey M, Haskew C, Hugonnet SAL, Imai N, Impouma B, Kabongo G, Kalenga OI, Kibangou E, Lee TMH, Lukoya CO, Ly O, Makiala-Mandanda S, Mamba A, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Mboussou FFR, Mlanda T, Mondonge Makuma V, Morgan O, Mujinga Mulumba A, Mukadi Kakoni P, Mukadi-Bamuleka D, Muyembe JJ, Bathé NT, Ndumbi Ngamala P, Ngom R, Ngoy G, Nouvellet P, Nsio J, Ousman KB, Peron E, Polonsky JA, Ryan MJ, Touré A, Towner R, Tshapenda G, Van De Weerdt R, Van Kerkhove M, Wendland A, Yao NKM, Yoti Z, Yuma E, Kalambayi Kabamba G, Lukwesa Mwati JDD, Mbuy G, Lubula L, Mutombo A, Mavila O, Lay Y, Kitenge Eet al., 2018, Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study, The Lancet, ISSN: 0140-6736

© 2018 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Background: On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak. Methods: We classified cases as suspected, probable, or confirmed using national case definitions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ministère de la Santé Publique. We investigated all cases to obtain demographic characteristics, determine possible exposures, describe signs and symptoms, and identify contacts to be followed up for 21 days. We also estimated the reproduction number and projected number of cases for the 4-week period from May 25, to June 21, 2018. Findings: As of May 30, 2018, 50 cases (37 confirmed, 13 probable) of Zaire ebolavirus were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 21 (42%) were reported in Bikoro, 25 (50%) in Iboko, and four (8%) in Wangata health zones. Wangata is part of Mbandaka, the urban capital of Équateur Province, which is connected to major national and international transport routes. By May 30, 2018, 25 deaths from Ebola virus disease had been reported, with a case fatality ratio of 56% (95% CI 39–72) after adjustment for censoring. This case fatality ratio is consistent with estimates for the 2014–16 west African Ebola virus disease epidemic (p=0·427). The median age of people with confirmed or probable infection was 40 years (range 8–80) and 30 (60%) were male. The most commonly reported signs and symptoms in people with confirmed or probable Ebola viru

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Calder M, Craig C, Culley D, de Cani R, Donnelly CA, Douglas R, Edmonds B, Gascoigne J, Gilbert N, Hargrove C, Hinds D, Lane DC, Mitchell D, Pavey G, Robertson D, Rosewell B, Sherwin S, Walport M, Wilson Aet al., 2018, Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how, ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2054-5703

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Donnelly CA, Boyd I, Campbell P, Craig C, Vallance P, Walport M, Whitty CJM, Woods E, Wormald Cet al., 2018, Four principles for synthesizing evidence, NATURE, Vol: 558, Pages: 361-364, ISSN: 0028-0836

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2018, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 22, Pages: 29-35, ISSN: 1755-4365

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Radhakrishnan S, Tamim Vanak A, Nouvellet P, Donnelly Cet al., 2018, A question of accessibility: modelling the effects of demography and accessibility for vaccination on elimination of rabies in free-ranging dog populations in India., 16th conference on Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases

A key strategy for achieving the WHO global target of zero human dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030 is massrabies vaccination of free-ranging dog populations, the primary rabies reservoir in endemic nations. AlthoughIndia accounts for the highest burden of dog-mediated human rabies deaths, very little is known about freerangingdog ecology, demography, ownership or accessibility for vaccination. Experience from mass sterilisationcampaigns in the state of Kerala suggests that a significant proportion of free-ranging dogs are difficult to accessfor capture or handling, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving the WHO-recommended 70%vaccination coverage for rabies elimination. This study reports results from mathematical models of rabiestransmission and control that are being built to inform fieldwork in India. The effects of varying demography,accessibility for vaccination and duration of immunity on rabies persistence and prospects for elimination will bepresented, and potential strategies for expanding coverage discussed.

POSTER

Anderson R, Farrell S, Turner H, Walson J, Donnelly CA, Truscott Jet al., 2017, Assessing the interruption of the transmission of human helminths with mass drug administration alone: optimizing the design of cluster randomized trials, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1756-3305

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Brunton LA, Donnelly CA, O'Connor H, Prosser A, Ashfield S, Ashton A, Upton P, Mitchell A, Goodchild AV, Parry JE, Downs SHet al., 2017, Assessing the effects of the first 2years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013-2015, ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, Vol: 7, Pages: 7213-7230, ISSN: 2045-7758

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Clements MN, Donnelly CA, Fenwick A, Kabatereine NB, Knowles SCL, Meite A, N'Goran EK, Nalule Y, Nogaro S, Phillips AE, Tukahebwa EM, Fleming FMet al., 2017, Interpreting ambiguous 'trace' results in Schistosoma mansoni CCA Tests: Estimating sensitivity and specificity of ambiguous results with no gold standard, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dawkins MS, Roberts SJ, Cain RJ, Nickson T, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Early warning of footpad dermatitis and hockburn in broiler chicken flocks using optical flow, bodyweight and water consumption, VETERINARY RECORD, Vol: 180, Pages: 499-U60, ISSN: 0042-4900

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, EUROSURVEILLANCE, Vol: 22, Pages: 10-13, ISSN: 1560-7917

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Aiyar S, Akanda S, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Eyadhy A, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlov J, Arora M, Al A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bejot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabe E, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bjerregaard P, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bukhman G, Negesa L, Bulto B, Bumgarner BR, Burch M, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Car M, Crdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro FF, Castro RE, Catala-Lopez F, Chen H, Chiang PP-C, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi J-YJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colquhoun SM, Coresh J, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deiparine Set al., 2017, Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, LANCET, Vol: 390, Pages: 1084-1150, ISSN: 0140-6736

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2017, Use of farm buildings by wild badgers: implications for the transmission of bovine tuberculosis, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE RESEARCH, Vol: 63, ISSN: 1612-4642

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2017, Ranging behaviour of badgers Meles meles vaccinated with Bacillus Calmette Guerin, JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 54, Pages: 718-725, ISSN: 0021-8901

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Bielby J, Vial F, Woodroffe R, Donnelly CAet al., 2016, Localised Badger Culling Increases Risk of Herd Breakdown on Nearby, Not Focal, Land, PLOS ONE, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Blake IM, Chenoweth P, Okayasu H, Donnelly CA, Aylward RB, Grassly NCet al., 2016, Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication, EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 22, Pages: 449-456, ISSN: 1080-6040

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Bourhy H, Nakoune E, Hall M, Nouvellet P, Lepelletier A, Talbi C, Watier L, Holmes EC, Cauchemez S, Lemey P, Donnelly CA, Rambaut Aet al., 2016, Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting, PLOS PATHOGENS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-7366

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basanez M-G, Nouvellet P, Lessler Jet al., 2016, Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 353-354, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Frise R, Bradley K, van Doremalen N, Galiano M, Elderfield RA, Stilwell P, Ashcroft JW, Fernandez-Alonso M, Miah S, Lackenby A, Roberts KL, Donnelly CA, Barclay WSet al., 2016, Contact transmission of influenza virus between ferrets imposes a looser bottleneck than respiratory droplet transmission allowing propagation of antiviral resistance, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2045-2322

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske Tet al., 2016, A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 95, Pages: 1435-1439

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Majeed A, Hansell A, Saxena S, Millett C, Ward H, Harris M, Hayhoe B, Car J, Easton G, Donnelly CA, Perneczky R, Jarvelin M-R, Ezzati M, Rawaf S, Vineis P, Ferguson N, Riboli Eet al., 2016, How would a decision to leave the European Union affect medical research and health in the United Kingdom?, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF MEDICINE, Vol: 109, Pages: 216-218, ISSN: 0141-0768

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Woodroffe R, Donnelly CA, Ham C, Jackson SYB, Moyes K, Chapman K, Stratton NG, Cartwright SJet al., 2016, Badgers prefer cattle pasture but avoid cattle: implications for bovine tuberculosis control, ECOLOGY LETTERS, Vol: 19, Pages: 1201-1208, ISSN: 1461-023X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2015, Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 372, Pages: 1274-1277, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Carvalho DO, McKemey AR, Garziera L, Lacroix R, Donnelly CA, Alphey L, Malavasi A, Capurro MLet al., 2015, Suppression of a Field Population of Aedes aegypti in Brazil by Sustained Release of Transgenic Male Mosquitoes, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.

Request URL: http://wlsprd.imperial.ac.uk:80/respub/WEB-INF/jsp/search-html.jsp Request URI: /respub/WEB-INF/jsp/search-html.jsp Query String: respub-action=search.html&id=00308903&limit=30&person=true