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@unpublished{Dorigatti:2021:10.2139/ssrn.3792892,
author = {Dorigatti, I and Lavezzo, E and Manuto, L and Ciavarella, C and Pacenti, M and Boldrin, C and Cattai, M and Saluzzo, F and Franchin, E and Del, Vecchio C and Caldart, F and Castelli, G and Nicoletti, M and Nieddu, E and Salvadoretti, E and Labella, B and Fava, L and Guglielmo, S and Fascina, M and Alvisi, G and Vanuzzo, MC and Zupo, T and Calandrin, R and Lisi, V and Rossi, L and Castigliuolo, I and Merigliano, S and Unwin, HJT and Plebani, M and Padoan, A and Brazzale, AR and Toppo, S and Ferguson, NM and Donnelly, C and Crisanti, A},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3792892},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
title = {SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics, within-household transmission and the impact of contact tracing from community-wide serological testing in the Italian Municipality of Vo’},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792892},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background: In February and Mach 2020, two mass swab testing campaigns conducted in Vo’, Italy demonstrated the extent of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and the feasibility of epidemic suppression.Methods: We tested 86% of the Vo’ population (2,602 subjects) in May with three immuno-assays detecting antibodies against the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) antigens, a neutralisation assay and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Subjects testing positive to PCR in February/March or a serological assay in May were tested again in November.Findings: Combining the results obtained with the three assays, we estimate a seroprevalence of 3.5% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.8%-4.3%) in May. In November, all assays showed a reduction in antibody titres, though 98.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 93.7%-100.0%) of sera still reacted against at least one antigen. Conversely, 18.6% (95% CI 11.0%-28.5%) showed a marked increase of antibody or viral neutralisation reactivity between May and November, linked to documented or likely re-exposures. We found significant differences in the magnitude and persistence of the antibody response by age group but not by symptom occurrence, hospitalisation, or sex. Analysis of the serostatus of 1,118 households indicated a 27.3% (95% CrI 19.2%-34.6%) probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among household members and that 81.8% (95% CrI 55.9%-95.2%) of transmission could be attributed to 20% of infections. Contact tracing correctly identified 44% of the infected subjects and had limited impact on the epidemic.Interpretation: We find evidence of antibody persistence up to nine months post infection. Different assays provided significantly different seroprevalence estimates, making it challenging to compare seroprevalence estimates globally. Due to the high population susceptibility and the limited impact of contact tracing, rigorous testing and improvements in contact tracing are essential to control SARS-CoV-2.Funding: Veneto Region, Med
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Lavezzo,E
AU  - Manuto,L
AU  - Ciavarella,C
AU  - Pacenti,M
AU  - Boldrin,C
AU  - Cattai,M
AU  - Saluzzo,F
AU  - Franchin,E
AU  - Del,Vecchio C
AU  - Caldart,F
AU  - Castelli,G
AU  - Nicoletti,M
AU  - Nieddu,E
AU  - Salvadoretti,E
AU  - Labella,B
AU  - Fava,L
AU  - Guglielmo,S
AU  - Fascina,M
AU  - Alvisi,G
AU  - Vanuzzo,MC
AU  - Zupo,T
AU  - Calandrin,R
AU  - Lisi,V
AU  - Rossi,L
AU  - Castigliuolo,I
AU  - Merigliano,S
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Plebani,M
AU  - Padoan,A
AU  - Brazzale,AR
AU  - Toppo,S
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Crisanti,A
DO  - 10.2139/ssrn.3792892
PB  - Elsevier BV
PY  - 2021///
TI  - SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics, within-household transmission and the impact of contact tracing from community-wide serological testing in the Italian Municipality of Vo’
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792892
UR  - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3792892
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86578
ER  -

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Professor Christl Donnelly CBE FMedSci FRS

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