Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Visiting Professor



+44 (0)20 7594 3397c.fraser Website




G28Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus





Evolutionary Epidemiology

I lead the evolutionary epidemiology group, which works on developing theory, on integrating data, and on developing applications for public health.

Link to group page


Chair of Theoretical Epidemiology (since 2009) and Royal Society University Research Fellow (2004-2012) in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College. Previous to that I was a Lecturer (2004-2006) and Reader (2006-2009) in the same department. Full publication list.

I trained in theoretical physics (BSc Edinburgh 1994, PhD Swansea 1997), and after a very brief foray into M-theory, converted to epidemiology with a Wellcome Trust Biomathematics Training Fellowship (Oxford University and Imperial College, 1999-2002).  

I am the deputy director of the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling. I co-direct a two week Short Course in Infectious Disease Modelling held each September and teach on and help organise our other taught courses.

Selected topics

HIV infection dynamics

Outbreak analysis and modelling

Evolution and epidemiology of common bacterial pathogens

Epidemiological theory


Pen y Fan with Hugo (9) and Iselin (7)

Walking up Pen y Fan with Hugo (9) and Iselin (7)



Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Hollingsworth TD, Laeyendecker O, Shirreff G, et al., 2010, HIV-1 Transmitting Couples Have Similar Viral Load Set-Points in Rakai, Uganda, PLOS Pathogens, Vol:6, ISSN:1553-7366

Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, Science, Vol:324, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1557-1561

Hanage WP, Fraser C, Tang J, et al., 2009, Hyper-Recombination, Diversity, and Antibiotic Resistance in Pneumococcus, Science, Vol:324, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1454-1457

Fraser C, Alm EJ, Polz MF, et al., 2009, The Bacterial Species Challenge: Making Sense of Genetic and Ecological Diversity, Science, Vol:323, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:741-746

Fraser C, Hollingsworth TD, Chapman R, et al., 2007, Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: Epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol:104, ISSN:0027-8424, Pages:17441-17446

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, et al., 2004, Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol:101, ISSN:0027-8424, Pages:6146-6151

Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al., 2003, Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions, Science, Vol:300, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1961-1966

More Publications