Imperial College London

ProfessorChristopherMillett

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

c.millett Website

 
 
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Location

 

Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

298 results found

Goel R, Oyebode O, Foley L, Tatah L, Millett C, Woodcock Jet al., 2022, Gender differences in active travel in major cities across the world, TRANSPORTATION, ISSN: 0049-4488

Journal article

Parnham J, Millett C, Chang K, Laverty A, von Hinke S, Pearson-Stuttard J, Vamos Eet al., 2021, Is the Healthy Start scheme associated with increased food expenditure in low-income families with young children in the United Kingdom?, BMC Public Health, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1471-2458

Introduction: Healthy Start is a food assistance programme in the United Kingdom (UK) which aims to provide a nutritional safety-net and enable low-income families on welfare benefits to access a healthier diet through the provision of food vouchers. Healthy Start was launched in 2006 but remains under-evaluated. This study aims to determine whether participation in the Healthy Start scheme is associated with differences in food expenditure in a nationally representative sample of households in the UK. Methods: Cross-sectional analyses of the Living Costs and Food Survey dataset (2010-2017). All households with a child (0-3 years) or pregnant woman were included in the analysis (n=4,869). Multivariable quantile regression compared the expenditure and quantity of fruit and vegetables (FV), infant formula and total food purchases. Four exposure groups were defined based on eligibility, participation and income (Healthy Start Participating, Eligible Non-participating, Nearly Eligible low-income and Ineligible high-income households).Results: Of 876 eligible households, 54% participated in Healthy Start. No significant differences were found in FV or total food purchases between participating and eligible non-participating households, but infant formula purchases were lower in Healthy Start participating households. Ineligible higher-income households had higher purchases of FV. Conclusion: This study did not find evidence of an association between Healthy Start participation and FV expenditure. Moreover, inequalities in FV purchasing persist in the UK. Higher participation and increased voucher value may be needed to improve programme performance and counteract the harmful effects of poverty on diet.

Journal article

Basu S, Hone T, Villela D, Saraceni V, Trajman A, Durovni B, Millett C, Rasella Det al., 2021, The contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal Three for health: A microsimulation of the fifteen largest cities in Brazil, BMJ Open, ISSN: 2044-6055

ObjectivesAs middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.DesignMicrosimulation modelSetting15 largest cities by population size in BrazilParticipantsSimulated populationsInterventionsWe performed survival analysis to estimate hazard ratios of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the hazard ratios into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCrude and age-standardized mortality by cause, infant mortality, and under-5 mortality.ResultsIncreased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1,000 between the highest- and lowest-mortality city, given a 40-percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40-percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (versus the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (versus 100%).ConclusionsFHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination betwe

Journal article

Seferidi P, Hone T, Duran AC, Bernabé-Ortiz A, Millett Cet al., 2021, Global inequalities in the double burden of malnutrition and associations with globalisation: a multilevel analysis of 55 low- and middle-income countries 1992-2018, The Lancet Global Health, ISSN: 2214-109X

BackgroundLow- and middle-income countries (LMIC) face a double burden of malnutrition (DBM), where overnutrition and undernutrition co-exist within the same individual, household, or population. This analysis investigates global inequalities in household-level DBM, expressed as a stunted child with an overweight mother, and its association with economic, social, and political globalisation across country income and household wealth.MethodsWe pooled anthropometric and demographic data for 1,131,069 children (<5 years) and their mothers (15-49 years), from 189 Demographic and Healthy Surveys in 55 LMICs between 1992-2018. These were combined with country-level data on economic, social, and political globalisation from KOF and gross national income (GNI) from the World Bank. Multi-variate associations between DBM and household wealth, GNI, and globalisation and their interactions were tested using multilevel logistic regression models with country and year fixed-effects and robust standard errors clustered by country.FindingsThe probability of DBM was higher among richer households in poorer LMICs and poorer households in richer LMICs. Economic globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM among the poorest households (OR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.20-1.86) compared with the richest. These associations attenuated as GNI increased. Social globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM (OR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.16-1.65), independently of household wealth or country income. No associations were identified between political globalisation and DBM.InterpretationIncreases in economic and social globalisation were associated with higher DBM, although the impacts of economic globalisation were mostly realised by the world’s poorest.

Journal article

Neri D, Steele EM, Khandpur N, Cediel G, Zapata ME, Rauber F, Marron-Ponce JA, Machado P, da Costa Louzada ML, Andrade GC, Batis C, Babio N, Salas-Salvado J, Millett C, Monteiro CA, Levy RBet al., 2021, Ultraprocessed food consumption and dietary nutrient profiles associated with obesity: A multicountry study of children and adolescents, OBESITY REVIEWS, ISSN: 1467-7881

Journal article

Mrejen M, Rocha R, Millett C, Hone Tet al., 2021, The quality of alternative models of primary health care and morbidity and mortality in Brazil: a national longitudinal analysis, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2667-193X

BackgroundEvidence is limited on health benefits from quality improvement of primary healthcare (PHC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study investigated whether increasing PHC quality in Brazil with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated community health workers (CHWs) was associated with reductions in hospitalizations and mortality beyond benefits derived from increasing access.MethodsAnnual municipal-level data for 5,411 municipalities between 2000 and 2014 were analysed using fixed effects panel regressions. PHC quality was measured as: i) the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals (doctors and nurses); and ii) the proportion of visits provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams. Models assessed associations between PHC quality and hospitalization and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), tuberculosis, leprosy, perinatal and maternal causes, and adjusted for PHC access, utilisation, presence of secondary care services, and socioeconomic factors.FindingsA one percentage point increase in the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals was associated with 0•019 fewer deaths from diabetes per 100,000 population (95%CI: -0•034, -0•003; p-value: 0.0167) and 0•029 fewer hospitalizations per 100,000 from leprosy (95%CI: -0•055, -0•002; p-value: 0.0321). A one percentage point increase in the proportion of care provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams was associated with 0•025 fewer deaths from CVD per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•050, -0•001; p-value: 0.0442) and 0•148 fewer maternal hospital admissions per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•286, -0•010; p-value: 0.0356). No significant associations were found for the other twenty pairs of exposures and outcomes analysed.InterpretationInvesting in higher-quality PHC models with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated CHWs can deliver reductions in

Journal article

Shimizu H, Pacheco Santos L, Sanchez M, Hone T, Millett C, Harris Met al., 2021, Challenges facing the more doctors program (Programa Mais Médicos) in vulnerable and peri-urban areas in Greater Brasilia, Brazil, Human Resources for Health, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1478-4491

BackgroundA shortage of physicians, especially in vulnerable and peri-urban areas, is a global phenomenon that has serious implications for health systems, demanding policies to assure the provision and retention of health workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the strategies employed by the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos) to provide primary care physicians in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia.MethodsThe study used a qualitative approach based on the precepts of social constructivism. Forty-nine semi-structured interviews were conducted: 24 with physicians employed as part of the More Doctors program, five with program medical supervisors, seven with secondary care physicians, twelve with primary care coordinators, and one federal administrator. The interviews occurred between March and September 2019. The transcripts of the interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis.ResultsThe partnership between the Ministry of Health and local authorities was essential for the provision of doctors—especially foreign doctors, most from Cuba, to assist vulnerable population groups previously without access to the health system. There was a notable presence of doctors with experience working with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which was important for gaining a better understanding of the effects of the endemic urban violence in the region. The incentives and other institutional support, such as enhanced salaries, training, and housing, transportation, and food allowances, were factors that helped provide a satisfactory working environment. However, the poor state of the infrastructure at some of the primary care units and limitations of the health service as a whole were factors that hampered the provision of comprehensive care, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction.ConclusionsMore Doctors introduced a range of novel strategies that helped ensure a supply of primary care doctors in vulnerable and peri-urb

Journal article

Chen DT-H, Girvalaki C, Mechili EA, Millett C, Filippidis FTet al., 2021, Global Patterns and Prevalence of Dual and Poly-Tobacco Use: A Systematic Review, NICOTINE & TOBACCO RESEARCH, Vol: 23, Pages: 1816-1820, ISSN: 1462-2203

Journal article

Laverty AA, Li CR, Chang KC-M, Millett C, Filippidis FTet al., 2021, Cigarette taxation and price differentials in 195 countries during 2014-2018, Tobacco Control, ISSN: 0964-4563

INTRODUCTION: Raising tobacco prices via increased taxation may be undermined by tobacco industry tactics to keep budget cigarettes on the market. Price differentials between budget and premium cigarettes allow smokers to trade down in the face of average price rises thus attenuating health benefits. This study examines global trends of price differentials and associations with taxation. METHODS: Ecological analysis of country-level panel data of 195 countries' price differentials was performed and compared against total, specific excise, ad valorem and other taxation. Price differentials were expressed as the difference between budget cigarette and premium pack prices (as % of premium pack prices). Two-level linear regression models with repeated measurements (2014, 2016 and 2018) nested within each country assessed the association between country-level taxation structures and price differentials, adjusted for year, geographical region and income group. RESULTS: Worldwide, median price differential between budget and premium 20-cigarette packs was 49.4% (IQR 25.9%-70.0%) in 2014 and 44.4% (IQR 22.5%-69.4%) in 2018 with significant regional variation. The largest price differentials in 2018 were in Africa, with the lowest in Europe. Total taxation was negatively associated with price differentials (-1.5%, 95% CI -2.5% to -0.4% per +10% total taxation) as was specific excise taxation (-2.5%, 95% CI -3.7% to -1.2% per +10% specific excise tax). We found no statistically significant association between ad valorem taxation and price differentials. CONCLUSION: Total levels of taxation and specific excise taxes were associated with smaller price differentials. Implementing high specific excise taxes may reduce price differentials and improve health outcomes.

Journal article

Hanley-Cook GT, Huybrechts I, Biessy C, Remans R, Kennedy G, Deschasaux-Tanguy M, Murray KA, Touvier M, Skeie G, Kesse-Guyot E, Argaw A, Casagrande C, Nicolas G, Vineis P, Millett CJ, Weiderpass E, Ferrari P, Dahm CC, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Sandanger TM, Ibsen DB, Freisling H, Ramne S, Jannasch F, van der Schouw YT, Schulze MB, Tsilidis KK, Tjonneland A, Ardanaz E, Boden S, Cirera L, Gargano G, Halkjaer J, Jakszyn P, Johansson I, Katzke V, Masala G, Panico S, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Sacerdote C, Srour B, Tumino R, Riboli E, Gunter MJ, Jones AD, Lachat Cet al., 2021, Food biodiversity and total and cause-specific mortality in 9 European countries: An analysis of a prospective cohort study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1549-1277

Journal article

Jawad M, Hone T, Vamos EP, Cetorelli V, Millett Cet al., 2021, Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000-2019, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1549-1277

BACKGROUND: Armed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions-all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 181 countries (2000-2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country-year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9-72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million-0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1-5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million-2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%-8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%-11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3-5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in

Journal article

Laverty AA, Millett C, 2021, A respiratory pandemic should focus the mind on tobacco control, Thorax, Vol: 77, Pages: 7-8, ISSN: 0040-6376

Journal article

Chang K, Khandpur N, Neri D, Touvier M, Huybrechts I, Millett C, Vamos Eet al., 2021, Association between childhood consumption of ultraprocessed food and adiposity trajectories in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort, JAMA Pediatrics, Vol: 175, ISSN: 2168-6211

Importance Reports of associations between higher consumption of ultraprocessed foods (UPF) and elevated risks of obesity, noncommunicable diseases, and mortality in adults are increasing. However, associations of UPF consumption with long-term adiposity trajectories have never been investigated in children.Objective To assess longitudinal associations between UPF consumption and adiposity trajectories from childhood to early adulthood.Design, Setting, and Participants This prospective birth cohort study included children who participated in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in Avon County, southwest England. Children were followed up from 7 to 24 years of age during the study period from September 1, 1998, to October 31, 2017. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021.Exposures Baseline dietary intake data were collected using 3-day food diaries. Consumption of UPF (applying the NOVA food classification system) was computed as a percentage of weight contribution in the total daily food intake for each participant and categorized into quintiles.Main Outcomes and Measures Repeated recordings of objectively assessed anthropometrics (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], weight, and waist circumference) and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements (fat and lean mass indexes [calculated as fat and lean mass, respectively, divided by height in meters squared] and body fat percentage). Associations were evaluated using linear growth curve models and were adjusted for study covariates.Results A total of 9025 children (4481 [49.7%] female and 4544 [50.3%] male) were followed up for a median of 10.2 (interquartile range, 5.2-16.4) years. The mean (SD) UPF consumption at baseline was 23.2% (5.0%) in quintile 1, 34.7% (2.5%) in quintile 2, 43.4% (2.5%) in quintile 3, 52.7% (2.8%) in quintile 4, and 67.8% (8.1%) in quintile 5. Among those in the highest quintile of UPF

Journal article

Cordova R, Kliemann N, Huybrechts I, Rauber F, Vamos EP, Levy RB, Wagner K-H, Viallon V, Casagrande C, Nicolas G, Dahm CC, Zhang J, Halkjær J, Tjønneland A, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Mancini FR, Laouali N, Katzke V, Srour B, Jannasch F, Schulze MB, Masala G, Grioni S, Panico S, van der Schouw YT, Derksen JWG, Rylander C, Skeie G, Jakszyn P, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Huerta JM, Barricarte A, Brunkwall L, Ramne S, Bodén S, Perez-Cornago A, Heath AK, Vineis P, Weiderpass E, Monteiro CA, Gunter MJ, Millett C, Freisling Het al., 2021, Consumption of ultra-processed foods associated with weight gain and obesity in adults: A multi-national cohort study, Clinical Nutrition, Vol: 40, Pages: 5079-5088, ISSN: 0261-5614

BackgroundThere is a worldwide shift towards increased consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) with concurrent rising prevalence of obesity. We examined the relationship between the consumption of UPF and weight gain and risk of obesity.MethodsThis prospective cohort included 348 748 men and women aged 25–70 years. Participants were recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 9 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Two body weight measures were available, at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5 years. Foods and drinks were assessed at baseline by dietary questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using NOVA classification. Multilevel mixed linear regression was used to estimate the association between UPF consumption and body weight change (kg/5 years). To estimate the relative risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years we used Poisson regression stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI).ResultsAfter multivariable adjustment, higher UPF consumption (per 1 SD increment) was positively associated with weight gain (0·12 kg/5 years, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·15). Comparing highest vs. lowest quintile of UPF consumption was associated with a 15% greater risk (95% CI 1·11, 1·19) of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight participants, and with a 16% greater risk (95% CI 1·09, 1·23) of becoming obese in participants who were overweight at baseline.ConclusionsThese results are supportive of public health campaigns to substitute UPF for less processed alternatives for obesity prevention and weight management.

Journal article

Bexson C, Millett C, Pacheco Santos LM, de Sousa Soares R, Proenço de Oliveira F, Hone Tet al., 2021, Brazil’s more doctors programme and infant health outcomes: a longitudinal analysis, Human Resources for Health, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 1478-4491

BackgroundProviding sufficient numbers of human resources for health is essential for effective and accessible health services. Between 2013 and 2018, the Brazilian Ministry of Health implemented the Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) (More Doctors Programme) to increase the supply of primary care doctors in underserved areas of the country. This study investigated the association between PMM and infant health outcomes and assessed if heterogeneity in the impact of PMM varied by municipal socioeconomic factors and health indicators.MethodsAn ecological longitudinal (panel) study design was employed to analyse data from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities over a 12-year period between 2007 and 2018. A differences-in-differences approach was implemented using longitudinal fixed effect regression models to compare infant health outcomes in municipalities receiving a PMM doctor with those that did not receive a PMM doctor. The impact of PMM was assessed on aggregate and in municipality subgroups. ResultsOn aggregate, the PMM was not significantly associated with changes in infant or neonatal mortality, but the PMM was associated with reductions in IMR (of -0.21; 95% CI: -0.38,-0.03) in municipalities with highest IMR prior to the programme’s implementation (where IMR >25.2 infant deaths per 1,000 live births). The PMM was also associated with an increase in the proportion of expectant mothers receiving seven or more prenatal care visits but only in municipalities with a lower IMR at baseline and high density of non-PMM doctors and community health workers before the PMM.ConclusionsThe PMM was associated with reduced infant mortality in municipalities with the highest infant mortality rate prior to the programme. This suggests effectiveness of the PMM was limited only to the areas of greatest need. New programmes to improve the equitable provision of human resources for health should employ comprehensive targeting approaches balancing health needs and socioeconomic

Journal article

Radó MK, Mölenberg FJM, Westenberg LEH, Sheikh A, Millett C, Burdorf A, van Lenthe FJ, Been JVet al., 2021, Effect of smoke-free policies in outdoor areas and private places on children's tobacco smoke exposure and respiratory health: a systematic review and meta-analysis, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e566-e578, ISSN: 2468-2667

BACKGROUND: Smoke-free policies in outdoor areas and semi-private and private places (eg, cars) might reduce the health harms caused by tobacco smoke exposure (TSE). We aimed to investigate the effect of smoke-free policies covering outdoor areas or semi-private and private places on TSE and respiratory health in children, to inform policy. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 13 electronic databases from date of inception to Jan 29, 2021, for published studies that assessed the effects of smoke-free policies in outdoor areas or semi-private or private places on TSE, respiratory health outcomes, or both, in children. Non-randomised and randomised trials, interrupted time series, and controlled before-after studies, without restrictions to the observational period, publication date, or language, were eligible for the main analysis. Two reviewers independently extracted data, including adjusted test statistics from each study using a prespecified form, and assessed risk of bias for effect estimates from each study using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool. Primary outcomes were TSE in places covered by the policy, unplanned hospital attendance for wheezing or asthma, and unplanned hospital attendance for respiratory tract infections, in children younger than 17 years. Random-effects meta-analyses were done when at least two studies evaluated policies that regulated smoking in similar places and reported on the same outcome. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020190563. FINDINGS: We identified 5745 records and assessed 204 full-text articles for eligibility, of which 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. Of these studies, seven fit prespecified robustness criteria as recommended by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care group, assessing smoke-free cars (n=5), schools (n=1), and a comprehensive policy covering multiple areas (n=1). Risk o

Journal article

Monteiro CA, Lawrence M, Millett C, Nestle M, Popkin BM, Scrinis G, Swinburn Bet al., 2021, The need to reshape global food processing: a call to the United Nations Food Systems Summit., BMJ Glob Health, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-3, ISSN: 2059-7908

In the modern, globalised food system, useful types of industrial food processing that preserve foods, enhance their sensory properties and make their culinary preparation easier and more diverse, have been and are being replaced by food ultra-processing.The main purpose of food ultra-processing is to increase profits by creating hyperpalatable and convenient food products that are grossly inferior imitations of minimally processed foods and freshly prepared dishes and meals.In the last decades, obesity, type 2 diabetes and related diseases have become global epidemics, leading the health systems of many countries to or beyond breaking point.Taken together, the totality of evidence summarised here shows beyond reasonable doubt that increased consumption of ultra-processed foods is a major contributor to the pandemic of obesity, type 2 diabetes and related diseases.The 2021 UN Food System has a unique opportunity to urge countries to implement policy interventions required to reduce ultra-processed food production, distribution and consumption, while simultaneously making fresh or minimally processed foods more available, accessible and affordable.

Journal article

Chen DT-H, Millett C, Filippidis FT, 2021, The association of migration with multiple tobacco product use among male adults in 15 low- and middle-income countries., Eur J Public Health, Vol: 31, Pages: 500-502

Little is known about the impact of migration on tobacco use patterns among men in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to explore the association between migration and tobacco use among men in LMICs. We used multilevel regression models to analyze data of 154 425 men from 15 countries from the latest wave of the Demographic and Health Survey. Results showed higher risk of single tobacco product use [relative risk ratio (RRR) = 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-1.26], but importantly of dual (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.36-1.49) and poly-tobacco use (RR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.57-1.86) among migrant men compared with non-migrants.

Journal article

Hone T, Stokes J, Trajman A, Saraceni V, Coeli CM, Rasella D, Durovni B, Millett Cet al., 2021, Racial and socioeconomic disparities in multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation and outcomes in Brazil: a cross-sectional analysis of three million individuals, BMC Public Health, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1471-2458

Background:Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities.Methods:This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation, costs and death in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of 3,027,335 individuals registered with primary healthcare (PHC) services. Records included linked data to hospitalisation, mortality, and welfare-claimant (Bolsa Família) records between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Dec 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were carried out to assess the likelihood of multimorbidity (two or more diagnoses out of 53 chronic conditions), PHC use, hospital admissions and mortality from any cause. Interactions were used to assess disparities.Results:In total 13,509,633 healthcare visits were analysed identifying 389,829 multimorbid individuals (13%). In adjusted regression models, multimorbidity was associated with lower education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.26; 95%CI: 1.23,1.29; compared to higher education), Bolsa Família receipt (AOR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.13,1.15; compared to non-recipients); and black race/ethnicity (AOR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03,1.06; compared to white). Multimorbidity was associated with more hospitalisations (Adjusted Rate Ratio (ARR): 2.75; 95%CI: 2.69,2.81), more PHC visits (ARR: 3.46; 95%CI: 3.44,3.47), and higher likelihood of death (AOR: 1.33; 95%CI: 1.29,1.36). These associations were greater for multimorbid individuals with lower educational attainment (five year probability of death 1.67% (95%CI: 1.61,1.74%) compared to 1.13% (95%CI: 1.02,1.23%) for higher education), individuals of black race/ethnicity (1.48% (95%CI: 1.41,1.55%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.40%) for white) and individuals in receipt of welfare (1.89% (95%CI: 1.77,2.00%) co

Journal article

Hunter RF, Garcia L, de Sa TH, Zapata-Diomedi B, Millett C, Woodcock J, Pentland AS, Moro Eet al., 2021, Effect of COVID-19 response policies on walking behavior in US cities, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2041-1723

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing mass disruption to our daily lives. We integrate mobility data from mobile devices and area-level data to study the walking patterns of 1.62 million anonymous users in 10 metropolitan areas in the United States. The data covers the period from mid-February 2020 (pre-lockdown) to late June 2020 (easing of lockdown restrictions). We detect when users were walking, distance walked and time of the walk, and classify each walk as recreational or utilitarian. Our results reveal dramatic declines in walking, particularly utilitarian walking, while recreational walking has recovered and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Our findings also demonstrate important social patterns, widening existing inequalities in walking behavior. COVID-19 response measures have a larger impact on walking behavior for those from low-income areas and high use of public transportation. Provision of equal opportunities to support walking is key to opening up our society and economy.

Journal article

Coeli CM, Saraceni V, Mota Medeiros Jr P, Santos HPDS, Guillen LCT, Alves LGSB, Hone T, Millett C, Trajman A, Durovni Bet al., 2021, Record linkage under suboptimal conditions for data-intensive evaluation of primary care in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1472-6947

BackgroundLinking Brazilian databases demands the development of algorithms and processes to deal with various challenges including the large size of the databases, the low number and poor quality of personal identifiers available to be compared (national security number not mandatory), and some characteristics of Brazilian names that make the linkage process prone to errors. This study aims to describe and evaluate the quality of the processes used to create an individual-linked database for data-intensive research on the impacts on health indicators of the expansion of primary care in Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil.MethodsWe created an individual-level dataset linking social benefits recipients, primary health care, hospital admission and mortality data. The databases were pre-processed, and we adopted a multiple approach strategy combining deterministic and probabilistic record linkage techniques, and an extensive clerical review of the potential matches. Relying on manual review as the gold standard, we estimated the false match (false-positive) proportion of each approach (deterministic, probabilistic, clerical review) and the missed match proportion (false-negative) of the clerical review approach. To assess the sensitivity (recall) to identifying social benefits recipients’ deaths, we used their vital status registered on the primary care database as the gold standard.ResultsIn all linkage processes, the deterministic approach identified most of the matches. However, the proportion of matches identified in each approach varied. The false match proportion was around 1% or less in almost all approaches. The missed match proportion in the clerical review approach of all linkage processes were under 3%. We estimated a recall of 93.6% (95% CI 92.8–94.3) for the linkage between social benefits recipients and mortality data.ConclusionThe adoption of a linkage strategy combining pre-processing routines, deterministic, and probabilistic strategies, as well as

Journal article

Siqueira M, Coube M, Millett C, Rocha R, Hone Tet al., 2021, The impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol, Systematic Reviews, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2046-4053

BackgroundHealth systems are often fragmented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This can increase inefficiencies and restrict progress towards universal health coverage. The objective of the systematic review described in this protocol will be to evaluate and synthesize the evidence concerning the impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in LMICs.MethodsLiterature searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases, from their inception onwards, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, CINAHL, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Scielo, Cochrane Library, EconLit, and JSTOR. Gray literature will be also targeted through searching OpenSIGLE, Google Scholar, and institutional websites (e.g., HMIC, The World Bank, WHO, PAHO, OECD). The search strings will include keywords related to LMICs, health system financing fragmentation, and health system goals. Experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational studies conducted in LMICs and examining health financing fragmentation across any relevant metric (e.g., the presence of different health funders/insurers, risk pooling mechanisms, eligibility categories, benefits packages, premiums) will be included. Studies will be eligible if they compare financing fragmentation in alternative settings or at least two-time points. The primary outcomes will be health system-related goals such as health outcomes (e.g., mortality, morbidity, patient-reported outcome measures) and indicators of access, services utilization, equity, and financial risk protection. Additional outcomes will include intermediate health system objectives (e.g., indicators of efficiency and quality). Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, abstract data, and full-text articles. Potential conflicts will be resolved through discussion and, when necessary, resolved by a third reviewer. The methodological quality (or risk of bias) of selected studies will be appraised using established checklists. Data extraction categories will include the

Journal article

Rauber F, Chang K, Vamos E, da Costa Louzada ML, Monteiro C, Millett C, Levy Ret al., 2021, Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity: a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank, European Journal of Nutrition, Vol: 60, Pages: 2169-2180, ISSN: 0044-264X

Objective: To examine the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity among UK adults. Methods: Participants aged 40-69 years at recruitment in the UK Biobank (2006-2019) with dietary intakes collected using 24-hour recall and repeated measures of adiposity - body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage of body fat (% BF) - were included (N=22,659; median follow-up: 5 years). Ultra-processed foods were identified using the NOVA classification and their consumption was expressed as a percentage of total energy intake. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of several indicators of obesity according to ultra-processed food consumption. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics.Results: 947 incident cases of overall obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m2) and 1,900 incident cases of abdominal obesity (men: WC≥102cm, women: WC≥88cm) were identified during follow-up. Participants in the highest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption had significantly higher risk of developing overall obesity (HR: 1.79; 95%CI: 1.06─3.03) and abdominal obesity (HR: 1.30; 95%CI: 1.14─1.48). They had higher risk of experiencing a ≥5% increase in BMI (HR: 1.31; 95%CI: 1.20─1.43), WC (HR: 1.35; 95%CI: 1.25─1.45) and %BF (HR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.03─1.25), than those in the lowest quartile of consumption.Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence that higher consumption of ultra-processed food is strongly associated with a higher risk of multiple indicators of obesity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of fresh or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Journal article

Levy RB, Rauber F, Chang K, Louzada MLDC, Monteiro CA, Millett C, Vamos EPet al., 2021, Ultra-processed food consumption and type 2 diabetes incidence: A prospective cohort study., Clinical Nutrition, Vol: 40, Pages: 3608-3614, ISSN: 0261-5614

BACKGROUND: Ultra-processed foods account for more than 50% of daily calories consumed in several high-income countries, with sales of ultra-processed foods soaring globally, especially in middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to investigate the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a UK-based prospective cohort study. METHODS: Participants of the UK Biobank (2007-2019) aged 40-69 years without diabetes at recruitment who provided 24-h dietary recall and follow-up data were included. UPFs were defined using the NOVA food classification. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between UPF consumption and the risk of T2D adjusting for socio-demographic, anthropometric and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 21,730 participants with a mean age of 55.8 years and mean UPF intake of 22.1% at baseline were included. During a mean follow-up of 5.4 years (116,956 person-years), 305 incident T2D cases were identified. In the fully adjusted model, compared with the group in the lowest quartile of UPF intake, the hazard ratio for T2D was 1.44, 1.04-2.02 in the group with the highest quartile of UPF consumption. A gradient of elevated risk of T2D associated with increasing quartiles of UPF intake was consistently observed (p value for trend < 0.028). A significantly increased risk of T2D was observed per 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption ([adjusted HR]: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.20). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that a diet high in UPFs is associated with a clinically important increased risk of T2D. Identifying and implementing effective public health actions to reduce UPF consumption in the UK and globally are urgently required.

Journal article

Jenkins RH, Vamos EP, Taylor-Robinson D, Millett C, Laverty AAet al., 2021, Impacts of the 2008 Great Recession on dietary intake: a systematic review and meta-analysis, International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1479-5868

BackgroundThe 2008 Great Recession significantly impacted economies and individuals globally, with potential impacts on food systems and dietary intake. We systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of the Great Recession on individuals’ dietary intake globally and whether disadvantaged individuals were disproportionately affected.MethodsWe searched seven databases and relevant grey literature through June 2020. Longitudinal quantitative studies with the 2008 recession as the exposure and any measure of dietary intake (energy intake, dietary quality, and food/macronutrient consumption) as the outcome were eligible for inclusion. Eligibility was independently assessed by two reviewers. The Newcastle Ottawa Scale was used for quality and risk of bias assessment. We undertook a random effects meta-analysis for changes in energy intake. Harvest plots were used to display and summarise study results for other outcomes. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019135864).ResultsForty-one studies including 2.6 million people met our inclusion criteria and were heterogenous in both methods and results. Ten studies reported energy intake, 11 dietary quality, 34 food intake, and 13 macronutrient consumption. The Great Recession was associated with a mean reduction of 103.0 cal per adult equivalent per day (95% Confidence Interval: − 132.1, − 73.9) in high-income countries (5 studies) and an increase of 105.5 cal per adult per day (95% Confidence Interval: 72.8, 138.2) in middle-income countries (2 studies) following random effects meta-analysis. We found reductions in fruit and vegetable intake. We also found reductions in intake of fast food, sugary products, and soft drinks. Impacts on macronutrients and dietary quality were inconclusive, though suggestive of a decrease in dietary quality. The Great Recession had greater impacts on dietary intake for disadvantaged individuals.ConclusionsThe 2008 recession was associated

Journal article

Jawad M, Millett C, Nakkash R, 2021, Tobacco-control challenges among adolescents in the Eastern Mediterranean region Comment, LANCET CHILD & ADOLESCENT HEALTH, Vol: 5, Pages: 234-235, ISSN: 2352-4642

Journal article

Esposito L, Dhongde S, Millett C, 2021, Smoking habits in Mexico: Upward and downward comparisons of economic status, REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, Vol: 25, Pages: 1558-1575, ISSN: 1363-6669

Journal article

Jenkins R, Aliabadi S, Vamos E, Taylor-Robinson D, Wickham S, Millett C, Laverty Aet al., 2021, The relationship between austerity and food insecurity in the UK: a systematic review, EClinicalMedicine, Vol: 33, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2589-5370

Background: In 2010, the UK government implemented austerity measures, involving reductions to public spending and welfare reform. We aimed to systematically review the relationship of austerity policies with food insecurity including foodbank use in the UK.Methods: We undertook a narrative systematic review (CRD42020164508) and searched seven databases, grey literature, and reference lists through September 2020. Studies with austerity policies (including welfare reform) as exposure and food insecurity (including foodbank use as a proxy) as study outcome were included. We included quantitative longitudinal and cross-sectional studies. Two reviewers assessed eligibility, extracted data directly from studies, and undertook quality assessment.Findings: Eight studies were included: two individual-level studies totalling 4129 participants and six ecological studies. All suggested a relationship between austerity and increased food insecurity. Two studies found that austerity policies were associated with increased food insecurity in European countries including the UK. Six studies found that the welfare reform aspect of UK austerity policies was associated with increased food insecurity and foodbank use. Sanctions involving delays to benefits as a response to a claimant not actively seeking work may increase food insecurity, with studies finding that increases of 100 sanctions per 100,000 people may have led to increases of between 2 and 36 food parcels per 100,000 population.Interpretation: UK austerity policies were consistently linked to food insecurity and foodbank use. Policymakers should consider impacts of austerity on food insecurity when considering how to reduce budget deficits.

Journal article

Vineis P, Huybrechts I, Millett C, Weiderpass Eet al., 2021, Climate change and cancer: converging policies, Molecular Oncology, Vol: 15, Pages: 764-769, ISSN: 1574-7891

Intervening on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (including cancer) in industrialized countries could achieve a reduction of between 30% and 40% of premature deaths. In the meantime, the need to intervene against the threat of climate change has become obvious. CO2 emissions must be reduced by 45% by the year 2030 and to zero by 2050 according to recent agreements. We propose an approach in which interventions are designed to prevent diseases and jointly mitigate climate change, the so‐called cobenefits. The present article describes some examples of how climate change mitigation and cancer prevention could go hand in hand: tobacco control, food production, and transportation (air pollution). Many others can be identified. The advantage of the proposed approach is that both long‐term (climate) and short‐term (health) benefits can be accrued with appropriate intersectoral policies.

Journal article

Rosa MFF, da Silva EN, Pacheco C, Diogenes MVP, Millett C, Gadelha CAG, Santos LMPet al., 2021, Direct from the COVID-19 crisis: research and innovation sparks in Brazil, HEALTH RESEARCH POLICY AND SYSTEMS, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1478-4505

Journal article

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