351 results found
Spahni R, Wania R, Neef L, et al., 2011, Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Vol: 8, Pages: 1643-1665, ISSN: 1726-4170
Prentice IC, Meng T, Wang H, et al., 2011, Evidence of a universal scaling relationship for leaf CO2 drawdown along an aridity gradient, NEW PHYTOLOGIST, Vol: 190, Pages: 169-180, ISSN: 0028-646X
Murray SJ, Foster PN, Prentice IC, 2011, Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 15, Pages: 91-105, ISSN: 1027-5606
Plant traits – the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants and their organs – determine how primary producers respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, influence ecosystem processes and services and provide a link from species richness to ecosystem functional diversity. Trait data thus represent the raw material for a wide range of research from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology to biogeography. Here we present the global database initiative named TRY, which has united a wide range of the plant trait research community worldwide and gained an unprecedented buy-in of trait data: so far 93 trait databases have been contributed. The data repository currently contains almost three million trait entries for 69 000 out of the world's 300 000 plant species, with a focus on 52 groups of traits characterizing the vegetative and regeneration stages of the plant life cycle, including growth, dispersal, establishment and persistence. A first data analysis shows that most plant traits are approximately log-normally distributed, with widely differing ranges of variation across traits. Most trait variation is between species (interspecific), but significant intraspecific variation is also documented, up to 40% of the overall variation. Plant functional types (PFTs), as commonly used in vegetation models, capture a substantial fraction of the observed variation – but for several traits most variation occurs within PFTs, up to 75% of the overall variation. In the context of vegetation models these traits would better be represented by state variables rather than fixed parameter values. The improved availability of plant trait data in the unified global database is expected to support a paradigm shift from species to trait-based ecology, offer new opportunities for synthetic plant trait research and enable a more realistic and empirically grounded representat
Clark JM, Billett MF, Coyle M, et al., 2010, Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of GB blanket peat (1940-2099), Climate Research, Vol: 45, Pages: 227-248, ISSN: 1616-1572
We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIAand the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOGensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Modelsimulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projectionsunder a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinningUKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climatechange; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted ashift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with thelowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a morevariable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end ofthis century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but noshift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast tothe BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest totalannual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, thegreatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between theBCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soilorganic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of theresponse has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management.Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, wouldsignificantly improve model development and projections of future change.
Prentice IC, 2010, The Burning Issue, SCIENCE, Vol: 330, Pages: 1636-1637, ISSN: 0036-8075
Friedlingstein P, Prentice IC, 2010, Carbon-climate feedbacks: a review of model and observation based estimates, CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 2, Pages: 251-257, ISSN: 1877-3435
Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Barboni D, et al., 2010, Ecophysiological and bioclimatic foundations for a global plant functional classification, JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Vol: 21, Pages: 300-317, ISSN: 1100-9233
Ni J, Yu G, Harrison SP, et al., 2010, Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types, PALAEOGEOGRAPHY PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY PALAEOECOLOGY, Vol: 289, Pages: 44-61, ISSN: 0031-0182
Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC, 2010, Implementation and evaluation of a new methane model within a dynamic global vegetation model: LPJ-WHyMe v1.3.1, GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 3, Pages: 565-584, ISSN: 1991-959X
House JI, Orr HG, Clark JM, et al., 2010, Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making INTRODUCTION, CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol: 45, Pages: 3-12, ISSN: 0936-577X
Arneth A, Sitch S, Bondeau A, et al., 2010, From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Vol: 7, Pages: 121-149, ISSN: 1726-4170
Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice IC, et al., 2010, The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model (vol 7, pg 1991, 2010), BIOGEOSCIENCES, Vol: 7, Pages: 2191-2191, ISSN: 1726-4170
Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice IC, et al., 2010, The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Vol: 7, Pages: 1991-2011, ISSN: 1726-4170
Gallego-Sala AV, Clark JM, House JI, et al., 2010, Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain, CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol: 45, Pages: 151-162, ISSN: 0936-577X
Clark JM, Gallego-Sala A, Allott T, et al., 2010, Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models, CLIM RES, Vol: in press
Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC, 2009, Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 23, ISSN: 0886-6236
Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC, 2009, Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 2. Evaluation and sensitivity of vegetation and carbon cycle processes, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 23, ISSN: 0886-6236
O'ishi R, Abe-Ouchi A, Prentice IC, et al., 2009, Vegetation dynamics and plant CO2 responses as positive feedbacks in a greenhouse world, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 36, ISSN: 0094-8276
Marlon JR, Bartlein PJ, Carcaillet C, et al., 2009, Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia (vol 1, pg 697, 2008), NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Vol: 2, Pages: 307-307, ISSN: 1752-0894
Doherty SJ, Bojinski S, Henderson-Sellers A, et al., 2009, LESSONS LEARNED FROM IPCC AR4 Scientific Developments Needed To Understand, Predict, And Respond To Climate Change, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 90, Pages: 497-513, ISSN: 0003-0007
Wolf EW, Harrison SP, Knutti R, et al., 2009, How has climate responded to natural perturbations?, Understanding the Earth System: Global Change Science for Application, Pages: 72-101, ISBN: 9781107009363
© Cambridge University Press 2012. In this chapter, we describe and explain some of the patterns observed in the behaviour of Earth’s climate system. We explain some of the causes of the climate’s natural variability, setting contemporary climate change in its longer-term context. We describe the various lines of evidence about climate forcing and the feedbacks that determine the responses to perturbations, and the way in which reconstructions of past climates can be used in combination with models and contemporary observations of change. Introduction Human activity is creating a major perturbation to the Earth, directly affecting the composition of the atmosphere, and the nature of the land surface. These direct effects are expected in turn to cause impacts on numerous aspects of the Earth: regional climates, the distribution of ice and vegetation types, and perhaps the circulation of the oceans. Numerous interactions within the Earth system must be understood to enable prediction of the effects of the imposed changes. Models used for prediction are underpinned by a physical understanding of the climate. Aspects of these models are generally tuned to the Earth we experience today, but it is their representation of Earthâ€™s response to change that really interests us. By observing the Earth, both directly in the present and indirectly in the past, we learn about processes and feedbacks that models need to represent; and we can test whether the real Earth has responded to perturbations with the speed and magnitude that our models display. The ultimate goal is to use such observations to test models quantitatively, and to calibrate some of their less-constrained parameters. This goal cannot be fully realized unless we have knowledge of both the perturbation and the spatial pattern and magnitude of the response. This chapter concentrates on observations of how the Earthâ€™s climate has responded to perturbations in th
Cornell SE, Prentice IC, 2009, Society's responses and knowledge gaps, Understanding the Earth System: Global Change Science for Application, Pages: 245-256, ISBN: 9781107009363
© Cambridge University Press 2012. Society’s needs for the knowledge that Earth system science can provide are urgent, but the challenges of knowledge integration and application are substantial. This closing chapter explores some of the issues that arise with the move towards an increasingly ‘applied’ Earth system science. Introduction At the start of this book, we traced the development of Earth system science from its early foundations, including its evolving interfaces with other academic disciplines and policy. Here we take an exploratory forward look, with a particular focus on some of the more contentious issues that currently surround climate science. We draw attention to unaddressed knowledge gaps and unstated conceptual problems, which we believe are making it harder than it need be to establish an effective communication and accommodation between policy-making and science. We argue that it is important to recognize what science can and cannot achieve, and what scholarship could achieve in the service of good policy-making, if the right questions were addressed and methodologies developed. Nothing we say should be interpreted as diminishing the value of Earth system science as a fundamental investigation of the interacting biological and physical/chemical processes that have sustained life on Earth. However, much of the funding that has supported the rapid advances in this field of research during the past two decades has been made available by governments with a more focused agenda, keen to assess the likely magnitude and consequences of anthropogenic climate change and (increasingly) the options for mitigation of, and necessities for adaptation to, climate change on a policy-relevant timescale. Like it or not, scientists have thereby become embroiled in debates and controversies for which they were not well prepared.
Cornell SE, Prentice IC, House JI, et al., 2009, Understanding the earth system: Global change science for application, ISBN: 9781107009363
© Cambridge University Press 2012. Explaining the what, the how and the why of climate science, this multi-disciplinary new book provides a review of research from the last decade, illustrated with cutting-edge data and observations. A key focus is the development of analysis tools that can be used to demonstrate options for mitigating and adapting to increasing climate risks. Emphasis is given to the importance of Earth system feedback mechanisms and the role of the biosphere. The book explains advances in modelling, process understanding and observations, and the development of consistent and coherent studies of past, present and 'possible' climates. This highly-illustrated, data-rich book is written by leading scientists involved in QUEST, a major UK-led research programme. It forms a concise and up-to-date reference for academic researchers or students in the fields of climatology, Earth system science and ecology, and also a vital resource for professionals and policymakers working on any aspect of global change.
© Cambridge University Press 2012. This chapter provides a high-level summary of the state of knowledge regarding observations, processes and models of climate, terrestrial ecosystems and the global carbon cycle. We focus strongly on observations (at various timescales, including palaeo timescales as appropriate), and what can be learned from their interpretation in the light of the established principles of climate science and terrestrial ecosystem science. The field is very broad and therefore we have had to be highly selective. We discuss aspects pertinent to understanding recent and contemporary changes in climate and the global carbon cycle, with emphasis on the terrestrial component. Observing and studying climate. Background and history of climate science. Like the weather, everyone has an interest in climate and knows something about it. Climate is generally understood as average weather. By definition, climate cannot change from year to year; but it can (and does) change over decades and centuries. Until the 1970s, the study of climate was largely descriptive. The data were concentrated in certain regions, and often anecdotal. Nonetheless, as Lamb (1982) and others described, these data already showed the existence of a great deal of variability in climate on many timescales, and that this variability has had a pervasive impact on human societies. Climate also has a dominant effect on ecosystems. The patterns of terrestrial biomes, from dense tropical forests to high-latitude and mountain tundra and deserts, reflect spatial patterns of average temperature and rainfall and show that climate has had a profound role in shaping the ecology and evolution of land plants. Relationships between vegetation and climate formed the basis for Köppens (1918) classification of world climates, which allowed climate to be inferred from vegetation at a time when direct climate observations were sparse.
Prentice IC, Harrison SP, 2009, Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates, CLIMATE OF THE PAST, Vol: 5, Pages: 297-307, ISSN: 1814-9324
House JI, Huntingford C, Knorr W, et al., 2008, What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy?, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 3, ISSN: 1748-9326
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