Imperial College London

Professor Iain Colin Prentice

Faculty of Natural SciencesDepartment of Life Sciences (Silwood Park)

Chair in Biosphere and Climate Impacts
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2354c.prentice

 
 
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Location

 

1.1Centre for Population BiologySilwood Park

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

351 results found

Kittel TGF, Rosenbloom NA, Royle JA, Daly C, Gibson WP, Fisher HH, Thornton P, Yates DN, Aulenbach S, Kaufman C, McKeown R, Bachelet D, Schimel DS, Neilson R, Lenihan J, Drapek R, Ojima DS, Parton WJ, Melillo JM, Kicklighter DW, Tian H, McGuire AD, Sykes MT, Smith B, Cowling S, Hickler T, Prentice IC, Running S, Hibbard KA, Post WM, King AW, Smith T, Rizzo B, Woodward FIet al., 2004, VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA, Climate Research, Vol: 27, Pages: 151-170, ISSN: 0936-577X

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate an

Journal article

Barboni D, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Jalut G, New M, Prentice IC, Sanchez-Goni MF, Spessa A, Davis B, Stevenson ACet al., 2004, Relationships between plant traits and climate in the Mediterranean region: A pollen data analysis, JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 635-646, ISSN: 1100-9233

Journal article

Pickett EJ, Harrison SP, Hope G, Harle K, Dodson JR, Kershaw AP, Prentice IC, Backhouse J, Colhoun EA, D'Costa D, Flenley J, Grindrod J, Haberle S, Hassell C, Kenyon C, Macphail M, Martin H, Martin AH, McKenzie M, Newsome JC, Penny D, Powell J, Raine JI, Southern W, Stevenson J, Sutra JP, Thomas I, van der Kaars S, Ward Jet al., 2004, Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0, 6000 and 18,000 C-14 yr BP, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 31, Pages: 1381-1444, ISSN: 0305-0270

Journal article

Gerber S, Joos F, Prentice IC, 2004, Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO2, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 10, Pages: 1223-1239, ISSN: 1354-1013

Journal article

Joos F, Gerber S, Prentice IC, Otto-Bliesner BL, Valdes PJet al., 2004, Transient simulations of Holocene atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrestrial carbon since the Last Glacial Maximum, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 18, ISSN: 0886-6236

Journal article

Ni J, Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer Wet al., 2004, Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3 (vol 9, pg 463, 2000), GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 13, Pages: 189-189, ISSN: 0960-7447

Journal article

Prentice IC, Le Quere C, Buitenhuis ET, House JI, Klaas C, Knorr Wet al., 2004, Biosphere dynamics: Challenges for Earth system models, 23rd General Assembly of the International-Union-of-Geodesy-and Geophysics, Publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, Pages: 269-278, ISSN: 0065-8448

Conference paper

Bigelow NH, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Lozhkin AV, Matveyeva NV, Murray DF, McGuire AD, Razzhivin VY, Ritchie JC, Smith B, Walker DA, Gajewski K, Wolf V, Holmqvist BH, Igarashi Y, Kremenetskii K, Paus A, Pisaric MFJ, Volkova VSet al., 2003, Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol: 108, ISSN: 0148-0227

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55°N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (∼200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (∼200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Journal article

Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Matveyeva NV, McGuire AD, Murray DF, Razzhivin VY, Smith B, Walker DA, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AVet al., 2003, Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol: 108, ISSN: 0148-0227

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal article

Bigelow NH, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Lozhkin AV, Matveyeva NV, Murray DF, McGuire AD, Razzhivin VY, Ritchie JC, Smith B, Walker DA, Gajewski K, Wolf V, Holmqvist BH, Igarashi Y, Kremenetskii K, Paus A, Pisaric MFJ, Volkova VSet al., 2003, Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55 degrees N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 108, ISSN: 2169-897X

Journal article

Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Matveyeva NV, McGuire AD, Murray DF, Razzhivin VY, Smith B, Walker DA, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AVet al., 2003, Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 108, ISSN: 2169-897X

Journal article

Harrison SP, Prentice CI, 2003, Climate and CO<inf>2</inf> controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: Analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations, Global Change Biology, Vol: 9, Pages: 983-1004, ISSN: 1354-1013

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO2 changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought-tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO2 concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought-tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low-latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO2 concentration on C3 photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO2 concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO2 concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO2 effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial-interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.

Journal article

Harrison SP, Kutzbach JE, Liu Z, Bartlein PJ, Otto-Bliesner B, Muhs D, Prentice IC, Thompson RSet al., 2003, Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 20, Pages: 663-688, ISSN: 0930-7575

Journal article

House JI, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Houghton RA, Heimann Met al., 2003, Reconciling apparent inconsistencies in estimates of terrestrial CO2 sources and sinks, TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, Vol: 55, Pages: 345-363, ISSN: 1600-0889

Journal article

Le Quere C, Aumont O, Bopp L, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Francey R, Heimann M, Keeling CD, Keeling RF, Kheshgi H, Peylin P, Piper SC, Prentice IC, Rayner PJet al., 2003, Two decades of ocean CO2 sink and variability, TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, Vol: 55, Pages: 649-656, ISSN: 1600-0889

Journal article

Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Venevsky Set al., 2003, Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 9, Pages: 161-185, ISSN: 1354-1013

Journal article

Spessa A, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Cramer W, Mahowald Net al., 2003, Confronting a burning question : The role of fire on earth, Eos, Vol: 84, ISSN: 0096-3941

Journal article

Claquin T, Roelandt C, Kohfeld KE, Harrison SP, Tegen I, Prentice IC, Balkanski Y, Bergametti G, Hansson M, Mahowald N, Rodhe H, Schulz Met al., 2003, Radiative forcing of climate by ice-age atmospheric dust, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 20, Pages: 193-202, ISSN: 0930-7575

Journal article

Werner M, Tegen I, Harrison SP, Kohfeld KE, Prentice IC, Balkanski Y, Rodhe H, Roelandt Cet al., 2002, Seasonal and interannual variability of the mineral dust cycle under present and glacial climate conditions, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 107, ISSN: 2169-897X

Journal article

Kaplan JO, Prentice IC, Knorr W, Valdes PJet al., 2002, Modeling the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 29, ISSN: 0094-8276

Journal article

House JI, Prentice IC, Le Quere C, 2002, Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 8, Pages: 1047-1052, ISSN: 1354-1013

Journal article

Tegen I, Harrison SP, Kohfeld K, Prentice IC, Coe M, Heimann Met al., 2002, Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: Results from a model study, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 107, ISSN: 2169-897X

Journal article

Dargaville RJ, Heimann M, McGuire AD, Prentice IC, Kicklighter DW, Joos F, Clein JS, Esser G, Foley J, Kaplan J, Meier RA, Melillo JM, Moore B, Ramankutty N, Reichenau T, Schloss A, Sitch S, Tian H, Williams LJ, Wittenberg Uet al., 2002, Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 0886-6236

Journal article

Kaplan JO, Prentice IC, Buchmann N, 2002, The stable carbon isotope composition of the terrestrial biosphere: Modeling at scales from the leaf to the globe, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 0886-6236

Journal article

Pan Y, McGuire AD, Melillo JM, Kicklighter DW, Sitch S, Prentice ICet al., 2002, A biogeochemistry-based dynamic vegetation model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States, JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Vol: 13, Pages: 369-382, ISSN: 1100-9233

Journal article

Lucht W, Prentice IC, Myneni RB, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Cramer W, Bousquet P, Buermann W, Smith Bet al., 2002, Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect, SCIENCE, Vol: 296, Pages: 1687-1689, ISSN: 0036-8075

Journal article

Joos F, Prentice IC, House JI, 2002, Growth enhancement due to global atmospheric change as predicted by terrestrial ecosystem models: consistent with US forest inventory data, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 8, Pages: 299-303, ISSN: 1354-1013

Journal article

Smith B, Prentice IC, Sykes MT, 2001, Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: Comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space, Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol: 10, Pages: 621-637, ISSN: 1466-822X

1 Advances in dynamic ecosystem modelling have made a number of different approaches to vegetation dynamics possible. Here we compare two models representing contrasting degrees of abstraction of the processes governing dynamics in real vegetation. 2 Model (a) (GUESS) simulates explicitly growth and competition among individual plants. Differences in crown structure (height, depth, area and LAI) influence relative light uptake by neighbours. Assimilated carbon is allocated individually by each plant to its leaf, fine root and sapwood tissues. Carbon allocation and turnover of sapwood to heartwood in turn govern height and diameter growth. 3 Model (b) (LPJ) incorporates a 'dynamic global vegetation model' (DGVM) architecture, simulating growth of populations of plant functional types (PFTs) over a grid cell, integrating individual-level processes over the proportional area (foliar projective cover, FPC) occupied by each PFT. Individual plants are not simulated, but are replaced by explicit parameterizations of their growth and interactions. 4 The models are identical in their representation of core physiological and biogeochemical processes. Both also use the same set of PFTs, corresponding to the major woody plant groups in Europe, plus a grass type. 5 When applied at a range of locations, broadly spanning climatic variation within Europe, both models successfully predicted PFT composition and succession within modern natural vegetation. However, the individual-based model performed better in areas where deciduous and evergreen types coincide, and in areas subject to pronounced seasonal water deficits, which would tend to favour grasses over drought-intolerant trees. 6 Differences in model performance could be traced to their treatment of individual-level processes, in particular light competition and stress-induced mortality. 7 Our results suggest that an explicit individual-based approach to vegetation dynamics may be an advantage in modelling of ecosystem structu

Journal article

Joos F, Prentice IC, Sitch S, Meyer R, Hooss G, Plattner GK, Gerber S, Hasselmann Ket al., 2001, Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 15, Pages: 891-907, ISSN: 0886-6236

Journal article

Geider RJ, Delucia EH, Falkowski PG, Finzi AC, Grime JP, Grace J, Kana TM, La Roche J, Long SP, Osborne BA, Platt T, Prentice IC, Raven JA, Schlesinger WH, Smetacek V, Stuart V, Sathyendranath S, Thomas RB, Vogelmann TC, Williams P, Woodward FIet al., 2001, Primary productivity of planet earth: biological determinants and physical constraints in terrestrial and aquatic habitats, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 7, Pages: 849-882, ISSN: 1354-1013

Journal article

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