Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer



+44 (0)20 7594 1933e.volz Website




UG10Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Volz, EM and Ndembi, N and Nowak, R and Kijak, GH and Idoko, J and Dakum, P and Royal, W and Baral, S and Dybul, M and Blattner, WA and Charurat, M},
doi = {ve/vex014},
journal = {Virus Evol},
title = {Phylodynamic analysis to inform prevention efforts in mixed HIV epidemics.},
url = {},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - In HIV epidemics of Sub Saharan Africa, the utility of HIV prevention efforts focused on key populations at higher risk of HIV infection and transmission is unclear. We conducted a phylodynamic analysis of HIV-1 pol sequences from four different risk groups in Abuja, Nigeria to estimate transmission patterns between men who have sex with men (MSM) and a representative sample of newly enrolled treatment naive HIV clients without clearly recorded HIV acquisition risks. We develop a realistic dynamical infectious disease model which was fitted to time-scaled phylogenies for subtypes G and CRF02_AG using a structured-coalescent approach. We compare the infectious disease model and structured coalescent to commonly used genetic clustering methods. We estimate HIV incidence among MSM of 7.9% (95%CI, 7.0-10.4) per susceptible person-year, and the population attributable fraction of HIV transmissions from MSM to reproductive age females to be 9.1% (95%CI, 3.8-18.6), and from the reproductive age women to MSM as 0.2% (95%CI, 0.06-0.3). Applying these parameter estimates to evaluate a test-and-treat HIV strategy that target MSM reduces the total HIV infections averted by half with a 2.5-fold saving. These results suggest the importance of addressing the HIV treatment needs of MSM in addition to cost-effectiveness of specific scale-up of treatment for MSM in the context of the mixed HIV epidemic observed in Nigeria.
AU - Volz,EM
AU - Ndembi,N
AU - Nowak,R
AU - Kijak,GH
AU - Idoko,J
AU - Dakum,P
AU - Royal,W
AU - Baral,S
AU - Dybul,M
AU - Blattner,WA
AU - Charurat,M
DO - ve/vex014
PY - 2017///
SN - 2057-1577
TI - Phylodynamic analysis to inform prevention efforts in mixed HIV epidemics.
T2 - Virus Evol
UR -
UR -
UR -
VL - 3
ER -