Imperial College London
Alternate

DrErikVolz

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Reader in Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1933e.volz Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG10Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Bhatia:2020:10.25561/77168,
author = {Bhatia, S and Imai, N and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Cori, A and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Dorigatti, I and Fitzjohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Ghani, A and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Thompson, H and Okell, L and Riley, S and van, Elsland S and Volz, E and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Whittaker, C and Xi, X and Donnelly, C and Ferguson, N},
booktitle = {Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance},
doi = {10.25561/77168},
title = {Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77168},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there are now 29 affected countries with over 1000 confirmed cases outside of mainland China. In previous reports, we estimated the likely epidemic size in Wuhan City based on air traffic volumes and the number of detected cases internationally. Here we analysed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries. Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ferguson,N
DO  - 10.25561/77168
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
T1  - Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77168
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-02-21-COVID19-Report-6.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77168
ER  -
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