Imperial College London
Alternate

DrErikVolz

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Reader in Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1933e.volz Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG10Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Volz:2020:10.25561/77169,
author = {Volz, E and Baguelin, M and Bhatia, S and Boonyasiri, A and Cori, A and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Donnelly, C and Dorigatti, I and Fitzjohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Ghani, A and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Okell, L and Riley, S and van, Elsland S and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Xi, X and Ferguson, N},
doi = {10.25561/77169},
title = {Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77169},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - Genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 (formerly 2019-nCoV), the virus which causes COVID-19, provides information about epidemic origins and the rate of epidemic growth. By analysing 53 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences collected up to February 3, 2020, we find a strong association between the time of sample collection and accumulation of genetic diversity. Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic methods indicate that the virus was introduced into the human population in early December and has an epidemic doubling time of approximately seven days. Phylodynamic modelling provides an estimate of epidemic size through time. Precise estimates of epidemic size are not possible with current genetic data, but our analyses indicate evidence of substantial heterogeneity in the number of secondary infections caused by each case, as indicated by a high level of over-dispersion in the reproduction number. Larger numbers of more systematically sampled sequences – particularly from across China – will allow phylogenetic estimates of epidemic size and growth rate to be substantially refined.
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Ferguson,N
DO  - 10.25561/77169
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/77169
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-02-15-COVID19-Report-5.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77169
ER  -
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