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@article{Kraemer:2021:10.1126/science.abj0113,
author = {Kraemer, MUG and Hill, V and Ruis, C and Dellicour, S and Bajaj, S and McCrone, JT and Baele, G and Parag, KV and Battle, AL and Gutierrez, B and Jackson, B and Colquhoun, R and O'Toole, Á and Klein, B and Vespignani, A and COVID-19, Genomics UK CoG-UK consortium and Volz, E and Faria, NR and Aanensen, D and Loman, NJ and du, Plessis L and Cauchemez, S and Rambaut, A and Scarpino, SV and Pybus, OG},
doi = {10.1126/science.abj0113},
journal = {Science},
pages = {889--895},
title = {Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113},
volume = {373},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve, as they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigate the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based PCR data. We identify a multi-stage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explore how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by non-pharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
AU  - Kraemer,MUG
AU  - Hill,V
AU  - Ruis,C
AU  - Dellicour,S
AU  - Bajaj,S
AU  - McCrone,JT
AU  - Baele,G
AU  - Parag,KV
AU  - Battle,AL
AU  - Gutierrez,B
AU  - Jackson,B
AU  - Colquhoun,R
AU  - O'Toole,Á
AU  - Klein,B
AU  - Vespignani,A
AU  - COVID-19,Genomics UK CoG-UK consortium
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Faria,NR
AU  - Aanensen,D
AU  - Loman,NJ
AU  - du,Plessis L
AU  - Cauchemez,S
AU  - Rambaut,A
AU  - Scarpino,SV
AU  - Pybus,OG
DO  - 10.1126/science.abj0113
EP  - 895
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0036-8075
SP  - 889
TI  - Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence
T2  - Science
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34301854
UR  - https://www.science.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abj0113
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90624
VL  - 373
ER  -

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