Imperial College London

Dr Frédéric B. Piel

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer



+44 (0)20 7594 3346f.piel




Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Vos, T and Allen, C and Arora, M and Barber, RM and Bhutta, ZA and Brown, A and Carter, A and Casey, DC and Charlson, FJ and Chen, AZ and Coggeshall, M and Cornaby, L and Dandona, L and Dicker, DJ and Dilegge, T and Erskine, HE and Ferrari, AJ and Fitzmaurice, C and Fleming, T and Forouzanfar, MH and Fullman, N and Gething, PW and Goldberg, EM and Graetz, N and Haagsma, JA and Johnson, CO and Kassebaum, NJ and Kawashima, T and Kemmer, L and Khalil, IA and Kinfu, Y and Kyu, HH and Leung, J and Liang, X and Lim, SS and Lopez, AD and Lozano, R and Marczak, L and Mensah, GA and Mokdad, AH and Naghavi, M and Nguyen, G and Nsoesie, E and Olsen, H and Pigott, DM and Pinho, C and Rankin, Z and Reinig, N and Salomon, JA and Sandar, L and Smith, A and Stanaway, J and Steiner, C and Teeple, S and Thomas, BA and Troeger, C and Wagner, JA and Wang, H and Wanga, V and Whiteford, HA and Zoeckler, L and Abajobir, AA and Abate, KH and Abbafati, C and Abbas, KM and Abd-Allah, F and Abraham, B and Abubak},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {1545--1602},
title = {Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015},
url = {},
volume = {388},
year = {2016}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (
AU - Vos,T
AU - Allen,C
AU - Arora,M
AU - Barber,RM
AU - Bhutta,ZA
AU - Brown,A
AU - Carter,A
AU - Casey,DC
AU - Charlson,FJ
AU - Chen,AZ
AU - Coggeshall,M
AU - Cornaby,L
AU - Dandona,L
AU - Dicker,DJ
AU - Dilegge,T
AU - Erskine,HE
AU - Ferrari,AJ
AU - Fitzmaurice,C
AU - Fleming,T
AU - Forouzanfar,MH
AU - Fullman,N
AU - Gething,PW
AU - Goldberg,EM
AU - Graetz,N
AU - Haagsma,JA
AU - Johnson,CO
AU - Kassebaum,NJ
AU - Kawashima,T
AU - Kemmer,L
AU - Khalil,IA
AU - Kinfu,Y
AU - Kyu,HH
AU - Leung,J
AU - Liang,X
AU - Lim,SS
AU - Lopez,AD
AU - Lozano,R
AU - Marczak,L
AU - Mensah,GA
AU - Mokdad,AH
AU - Naghavi,M
AU - Nguyen,G
AU - Nsoesie,E
AU - Olsen,H
AU - Pigott,DM
AU - Pinho,C
AU - Rankin,Z
AU - Reinig,N
AU - Salomon,JA
AU - Sandar,L
AU - Smith,A
AU - Stanaway,J
AU - Steiner,C
AU - Teeple,S
AU - Thomas,BA
AU - Troeger,C
AU - Wagner,JA
AU - Wang,H
AU - Wanga,V
AU - Whiteford,HA
AU - Zoeckler,L
AU - Abajobir,AA
AU - Abate,KH
AU - Abbafati,C
AU - Abbas,KM
AU - Abd-Allah,F
AU - Abraham,B
AU - Abubakar,I
AU - Abu-Raddad,LJ
AU - Abu-Rmeileh,NME
AU - Ackerman,IN
AU - Adebiyi,AO
AU - Ademi,Z
AU - Adou,AK
AU - Afanvi,KA
AU - Agardh,EE
AU - Agarwal,A
AU - Kiadaliri,AA
AU - Ahmadieh,H
AU - Ajala,ON
AU - Akinyemi,RO
AU - Akseer,N
AU - Al-Aly,Z
AU - Alam,K
AU - Alam,NKM
AU - Aldhahri,SF
AU - Alegretti,MA
AU - Alemu,ZA
AU - Alexander,LT
AU - Alhabib,S
AU - Ali,R
AU - Alkerwi,A
AU - Alla,F
AU - Allebeck,P
AU - Al-Raddadi,R
AU - Alsharif,U
AU - Altirkawi,KA
AU - Alvis-Guzman,N
AU - Amare,AT
AU - Amberbir,A
AU - Amini,H
AU - Ammar,W
AU - Amrock,SM
AU - Andersen,HH
AU - Anderson,GM
AU - Anderson,BO
AU - Antonio,CAT
AU - Aregay,AF
AU - Ärnlöv,J
AU - Artaman,A
AU - Asayesh,H
AU - Assadi,R
AU - Atique,S
AU - Avokpaho,EFGA
AU - Awasthi,A
AU - Quintanilla,BPA
AU - Azzopardi,P
AU - Bacha,U
AU - Badawi,A
AU - Balakrishnan,K
AU - Banerjee,A
AU - Barac,A
AU - Barker-Collo,SL
AU - Bärnighausen,T
AU - Barregard,L
AU - Barrero,LH
AU - Basu,A
AU - Bazargan-Hejazi,S
AU - Bell,B
AU - Bell,ML
AU - Bennett,DA
AU - Bensenor,IM
AU - Benzian,H
AU - Berhane,A
AU - Bernabé,E
AU - Betsu,BD
AU - Beyene,AS
AU - Bhala,N
AU - Bhatt,S
AU - Biadgilign,S
AU - Bienhoff,K
AU - Bikbov,B
AU - Biryukov,S
AU - Bisanzio,D
AU - Bjertness,E
AU - Blore,J
AU - Borschmann,R
AU - Boufous,S
AU - Brainin,M
AU - Brazinova,A
AU - Breitborde,NJK
AU - Brown,J
AU - Buchbinder,R
AU - Buckle,GC
AU - Butt,ZA
AU - Calabria,B
AU - Campos-Nonato,IR
AU - Campuzano,JC
AU - Carabin,H
AU - Cárdenas,R
AU - Carpenter,DO
AU - Carrero,JJ
AU - Castañeda-Orjuela,CA
AU - Rivas,JC
AU - Catalá-López,F
AU - Chang,J
AU - Chiang,PP
AU - Chibueze,CE
AU - Chisumpa,VH
AU - Choi,JJ
AU - Chowdhury,R
AU - Christensen,H
AU - Christopher,DJ
AU - Ciob
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6
EP - 1602
PY - 2016///
SN - 0140-6736
SP - 1545
TI - Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
T2 - The Lancet
UR -
UR -
UR -
VL - 388
ER -