Imperial College London

Dr Frédéric B. Piel

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer



+44 (0)20 7594 3346f.piel




Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Wang, H and Naghavi, M and Allen, C and Barber, RM and Bhutta, ZA and Carter, A and Casey, DC and Charlson, FJ and Chen, AZ and Coates, MM and Coggeshall, M and Dandona, L and Dicker, DJ and Erskine, HE and Ferrari, AJ and Fitzmaurice, C and Foreman, K and Forouzanfar, MH and Fraser, MS and Pullman, N and Gething, PW and Goldberg, EM and Graetz, N and Haagsma, JA and Hay, SI and Huynh, C and Johnson, C and Kassebaum, NJ and Kinfu, Y and Kulikoff, XR and Kutz, M and Kyu, HH and Larson, HJ and Leung, J and Liang, X and Lim, SS and Lind, M and Lozano, R and Marquez, N and Mensah, GA and Mikesell, J and Mokdad, AH and Mooney, MD and Nguyen, G and Nsoesie, E and Pigott, DM and Pinho, C and Roth, GA and Salomon, JA and Sandar, L and Silpakit, N and Sligar, A and Sorensen, RJD and Stanaway, J and Steiner, C and Teeple, S and Thomas, BA and Troeger, C and VanderZanden, A and Vollset, SE and Wanga, V and Whiteford, HA and Wolock, T and Zoeckler, L and Abate, KH and Abbafati, C and Abbas, KM and},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1},
journal = {Lancet},
pages = {1459--1544},
title = {Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015},
url = {},
volume = {388},
year = {2016}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - BackgroundImproving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.MethodsWe estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GB
AU - Wang,H
AU - Naghavi,M
AU - Allen,C
AU - Barber,RM
AU - Bhutta,ZA
AU - Carter,A
AU - Casey,DC
AU - Charlson,FJ
AU - Chen,AZ
AU - Coates,MM
AU - Coggeshall,M
AU - Dandona,L
AU - Dicker,DJ
AU - Erskine,HE
AU - Ferrari,AJ
AU - Fitzmaurice,C
AU - Foreman,K
AU - Forouzanfar,MH
AU - Fraser,MS
AU - Pullman,N
AU - Gething,PW
AU - Goldberg,EM
AU - Graetz,N
AU - Haagsma,JA
AU - Hay,SI
AU - Huynh,C
AU - Johnson,C
AU - Kassebaum,NJ
AU - Kinfu,Y
AU - Kulikoff,XR
AU - Kutz,M
AU - Kyu,HH
AU - Larson,HJ
AU - Leung,J
AU - Liang,X
AU - Lim,SS
AU - Lind,M
AU - Lozano,R
AU - Marquez,N
AU - Mensah,GA
AU - Mikesell,J
AU - Mokdad,AH
AU - Mooney,MD
AU - Nguyen,G
AU - Nsoesie,E
AU - Pigott,DM
AU - Pinho,C
AU - Roth,GA
AU - Salomon,JA
AU - Sandar,L
AU - Silpakit,N
AU - Sligar,A
AU - Sorensen,RJD
AU - Stanaway,J
AU - Steiner,C
AU - Teeple,S
AU - Thomas,BA
AU - Troeger,C
AU - VanderZanden,A
AU - Vollset,SE
AU - Wanga,V
AU - Whiteford,HA
AU - Wolock,T
AU - Zoeckler,L
AU - Abate,KH
AU - Abbafati,C
AU - Abbas,KM
AU - Abd-Allah,F
AU - Abera,SF
AU - Abreu,DMX
AU - Abu-Raddad,LJ
AU - Abyu,GY
AU - Achoki,T
AU - Adelekan,AL
AU - Ademi,Z
AU - Adou,AK
AU - Adsuar,JC
AU - Afanvi,KA
AU - Afshin,A
AU - Agardh,EE
AU - Agarwal,A
AU - Agrawal,A
AU - Kiadaliri,AA
AU - Ajala,ON
AU - Akanda,AS
AU - Akinyemi,RO
AU - Akinyemiju,TF
AU - Akseer,N
AU - Al,Lami FH
AU - Alabed,S
AU - Al-Aly,Z
AU - Alam,K
AU - Alam,NKM
AU - Alasfoor,D
AU - Aldhahri,SF
AU - Aldridge,RW
AU - Alegretti,MA
AU - Aleman,AV
AU - Alemu,ZA
AU - Alexander,LT
AU - Alhabib,S
AU - Ali,R
AU - Alkerwi,A
AU - Alla,F
AU - Allebeck,P
AU - Al-Raddadi,R
AU - Alsharif,U
AU - Altirkawi,KA
AU - Martin,EA
AU - Alvis-Guzman,N
AU - Amare,AT
AU - Amegah,AK
AU - Ameh,EA
AU - Amini,H
AU - Ammar,W
AU - Amrock,SM
AU - Andersen,HH
AU - Anderson,B
AU - Anderson,GM
AU - Antonio,CAT
AU - Aregay,AF
AU - Arnlov,J
AU - Arsenijevic,VSA
AU - Al,A
AU - Asayesh,H
AU - Asghar,RJ
AU - Atique,S
AU - Arthur,Avokpaho EFG
AU - Awasthi,A
AU - Azzopardi,P
AU - Bacha,U
AU - Badawi,A
AU - Bahit,MC
AU - Balakrishnan,K
AU - Banerjee,A
AU - Barac,A
AU - Barker-Collo,SL
AU - Barnighausen,T
AU - Barregard,L
AU - Barrero,LH
AU - Basu,A
AU - Basu,S
AU - Bayou,YT
AU - Bazargan-Hejazi,S
AU - Beardsley,J
AU - Bedi,N
AU - Beghi,E
AU - Belay,HA
AU - Bell,B
AU - Bell,ML
AU - Bello,AK
AU - Bennett,DA
AU - Bensenor,IM
AU - Berhane,A
AU - Bernabe,E
AU - Betsu,BD
AU - Beyene,AS
AU - Bhala,N
AU - Bhalla,A
AU - Biadgilign,S
AU - Bikbov,B
AU - Bin,Abdulhak AA
AU - Biroscak,BJ
AU - Biryukov,S
AU - Bjertness,E
AU - Blore,JD
AU - Blosser,CD
AU - Bohensky,MA
AU - Borschmann,R
AU - Bose,D
AU - Bourne,RRA
AU - Brainin,M
AU - Brayne,CEG
AU - Brazinova,A
AU - Breitborde,NJK
AU - Brenner,H
AU - Brewer,JD B
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1
EP - 1544
PY - 2016///
SN - 0140-6736
SP - 1459
TI - Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
T2 - Lancet
UR -
UR -
VL - 388
ER -