Imperial College London

DrIainStaffell

Faculty of Natural SciencesCentre for Environmental Policy

Lecturer in Sustainable Energy Systems
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9570i.staffell

 
 
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Location

 

202Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

86 results found

Schmidt O, Hawkes A, Gambhir A, Staffell Iet al., 2017, The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates, Nature Energy, Vol: 2

Journal article

Grams CM, Beerli R, Pfenninger S, Staffell I, Wernli Het al., 2017, Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes., Nature Climate Change, Vol: 7, Pages: 557-562, ISSN: 1758-678X

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

Journal article

Heuberger CF, Staffell I, Shah N, Mac Dowell Net al., 2017, The changing costs of technology and the optimal investment timing in the power sector

Report

Vijay A, Fouquet N, Staffell IL, Hawkes ADet al., 2017, The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems, Applied Energy, Vol: 201, Pages: 111-123, ISSN: 1872-9118

Decarbonising electricity systems is essential for mitigating climate change. Future systems will likely incorporate higher penetrations of intermittent renewable and inflexible nuclear power. This will significantly impact on system operations, particularly the requirements for flexibility in terms of reserves and the cost of such services. This paper estimates the interrelated changes in wholesale electricity and reserve prices using two novel methods. Firstly, it simulates the short run marginal cost of generation using a unit commitment model with post-processing to achieve realistic prices. It also introduces a new reserve price model, which mimics actual operation by first calculating the day ahead schedules and then letting deviations from schedule drive reserve prices. The UK is used as a case study to compare these models with traditional methods from the literature. The model gives good agreement with and historic prices in 2015. In a 2035 scenario, increased renewables penetration reduces mean electricity prices, and leads to price spikes due to expensive plants being brought online briefly to cope with net load variations. Contrary to views previously held in literature, a renewable intensive scenario does not lead to a higher reserve price than a fossil fuel intensive scenario. Demand response technology is shown to offer sizeable economic benefits when maintaining system balance. More broadly, this framework can be used to evaluate the economics of providing reserve services by aggregating decentralised energy resources such as heat pumps, micro-CHP and electric vehicles.

Journal article

Heuberger C, Staffell I, Shah N, Mac Dowell Net al., 2017, A systems approach to quantifying the value of power generation and energy storage technologies in future electricity networks, Computers & Chemical Engineering, Vol: 107, Pages: 247-256, ISSN: 0098-1354

A new approach is required to determine a technology's value to the power systems of the 21st century. Conventional cost-based metrics are incapable of accounting for the indirect system costs associated with intermittent electricity generation, in addition to environmental and security constraints. In this work, we formalise a new concept for power generation and storage technology valuation which explicitly accounts for system conditions, integration challenges, and the level of technology penetration. The centrepiece of the system value (SV) concept is a whole electricity systems model on a national scale, which simultaneously determines the ideal power system design and unit-wise operational strategy. It brings typical Process Systems Engineering thinking into the analysis of power systems. The model formulation is a mixed-integer linear optimisation and can be understood as hybrid between a generation expansion and a unit commitment model. We present an analysis of the future UK electricity system and investigate the SV of carbon capture and storage equipped power plants (CCS), onshore wind power plants, and grid-level energy storage capacity. We show how the availability of different low-carbon technologies impact the optimal capacity mix and generation patterns. We find that the SV in the year 2035 of grid-level energy storage is an order of magnitude greater than that of CCS and wind power plants. However, CCS and wind capacity provide a more consistent value to the system as their level of deployment increases. Ultimately, the incremental system value of a power technology is a function of the prevalent system design and constraints.

Journal article

Bosch J, Staffell, Hawkes AD, 2017, Temporally-explicit and spatially-resolved global onshore wind energy potentials, Energy, Vol: 131, Pages: 207-217, ISSN: 0360-5442

Several influential energy systems models indicate that renewable energy must provide a significant share of the world's electricity to limit global temperature rises to below 2 °C this century. To better represent the costs and other implications of this shift, it is important that these models realistically characterise the technical and economic potential of renewable energy technologies. Towards this goal, this paper presents the first temporally-explicit Geospatial Information System (GIS) methodology to characterise the global onshore wind energy potential with respect to topographical features, land use and environmental constraints. The approach combines the hourly NASA MERRA-2 global wind speed data set with the spatially-resolved DTU Global Wind Atlas. This yields high resolution global capacity factors for onshore wind, binned into seasonal and diurnal time-slices to capture the important temporal variability. For each country, the wind power generation capacity available for various capacity factor ranges is produced, and made freely available to the community. This data set can be used to assess the economically viable wind energy potential on a global or per-country basis, and as an input to various energy systems models.

Journal article

Green RJ, Staffell IL, 2017, “Prosumage” and the British electricity market, Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, Vol: 6, Pages: 33-49, ISSN: 2160-5882

Domestic electricity consumers with PV panels have become known as “prosumers”; some of them also have energy storage and we have named the combination “prosumage”. The challenges of renewable intermittency could be offset by storing power, and many engineering studies consider the role and value of storage which is properly integrated into the ‘smart grid’. Such a system with holistic optimal control may fail to materialise for regulatory, economic, or behavioural reasons. We therefore model the impact of naïve prosumage: households which use storage only to maximise self-consumption of PV, with no consideration of the wider system. We find it is neither economicfor arbitrage nor particularly beneficial for shaving peaks and filling troughs in national net demand. The extreme case of renewable self-sufficiency, becoming completely independent of the grid, is still prohibitively expensive in Britain and Germany, and even in a country like Spain with a much better solar resource.

Journal article

Staffell IL, 2017, Measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising British electricity, Energy Policy, Vol: 102, Pages: 463-475, ISSN: 1873-6777

Britain’s ambitious carbon targets require that electricity be immediately and aggressively decarbonised, so it is reassuring to report that electricity sector emissions have fallen 46% in the three years to June 2016, their lowest since 1960. This paper analyses the factors behind this fall and the impacts they are having.The main drivers are: demand falling 1.3% per year due to efficiency gains and mild winters; gas doubling its share to 60% of fossil generation due to the carbon price floor; and the dramatic uptake of wind, solar and biomass which now supply up to 45% of demand. Accounting conventions also play their part: imported electricity and biomass would add 5% and 2% to emissions if they were included.The pace of decarbonisation is impressive, but raises both engineering and economic challenges. Falling peak demand has delayed fears of capacity shortage, but minimum net demand is instead becoming a problem. The headroom between inflexible nuclear and intermittent renewables is rapidly shrinking, with controllable output reaching a minimum of just 5.9 GW as solar output peaked at 7.1 GW. 2015 also saw Britain’s first negative power prices, the highest winter peak prices for six years, and the highest balancing costs.

Journal article

Green RJ, Pudjianto D, Staffell I, Strbac Get al., 2016, Market Design for Long-Distance Trade in Renewable Electricity, Energy Journal, Vol: 37, Pages: 5-22, ISSN: 0195-6574

While the 2009 EU Renewables Directive allows countries to purchase some of their obligation fromanother member state, no country has yet done so, preferring to invest locally even where load factors arevery low. If countries specialised in renewables most suited to their own endowments and expandedinternational trade, we estimate that system costs in 2030 could be reduced by 5%, or €15 billion a year,after allowing for the costs of extra transmission capacity, peaking generation and balancing operationsneeded to maintain electrical feasibility.Significant barriers must be overcome to unlock these savings. Countries that produce more renewablepower should be compensated for the extra cost through tradable certificates, while those that buy fromabroad will want to know that the power can be imported when needed. Financial Transmission Rightscould offer companies investing abroad confidence that the power can be delivered to their consumers.They would hedge short-term fluctuations in prices and operate much more flexibly than the existingsystem of physical point-to-point rights on interconnectors. Using FTRs to generate revenue fortransmission expansion could produce perverse incentives to under-invest and raise their prices, sorevenues from FTRs should instead be offset against payments under the existing ENTSO-Ecompensation scheme for transit flows. FTRs could also facilitate cross-border participation in capacitymarkets, which are likely to be needed to reduce risks for the extra peaking plants required.

Journal article

Pfenninger S, DeCarolis J, Hirth L, Quoilin S, Staffell Iet al., 2016, The importance of open data and software: Is energy research lagging behind?, Energy Policy, Vol: 101, Pages: 211-215, ISSN: 0301-4215

Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly available to facilitate higher quality science, greater productivity through less duplicated effort, and a more effective science-policy boundary. There are also valid reasons why data and code are not open: ethical and security concerns, unwanted exposure, additional workload, and institutional or personal inertia. Overall, energy policy research ostensibly lags behind other fields in promoting more open and reproducible science. We take stock of the status quo and propose actionable steps forward for the energy research community to ensure that it can better engage with decision-makers and continues to deliver robust policy advice in a transparent and reproducible way.

Journal article

Hdidouan D, Staffell IL, 2016, The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy, Renewable Energy, Vol: 101, Pages: 575-592, ISSN: 1879-0682

Society's dependence on weather systems has broadened to include electricity generation from wind turbines. Climate change is altering energy flows in the atmosphere, which will affect the economic potential of wind power. Changes to wind resources and their upstream impacts on the energy industry have received limited academic attention, despite their risks earning interest from investors.We propose a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on the cost of wind energy, going from the change in hourly wind speed distributions from radiative forcing through to energy output and levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from wind farms. The paper outlines the proof of concept for this framework, exploring the limitations of global climate models for assessing wind resources, and a novel Weibull transfer function to characterise the climate signal.The framework is demonstrated by considering the UK's wind resources to 2100. Results are mixed: capacity factors increase in some regions and decrease in others, while the year-to-year variation generally increases. This highlights important financial and risk impacts which can be adopted into policy to enhance energy system resilience to the impacts of climate change. We call for greater emphasis to be placed on modelling wind resources in climate science.

Journal article

Pfenninger S, Staffell IL, 2016, Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data, Energy, Vol: 114, Pages: 1251-1265, ISSN: 0360-5442

Solar PV is rapidly growing globally, creating difficult questions around how to efficiently integrate it into national electricity grids. Its time-varying power output is difficult to model credibly because it depends on complex and variable weather systems, leading to difficulty in understanding its potential and limitations. We demonstrate how the MERRA and MERRA-2 global meteorological reanalyses as well as the Meteosat-based CM-SAF SARAH satellite dataset can be used to produce hourly PV simulations across Europe. To validate these simulations, we gather metered time series from more than 1000 PV systems as well as national aggregate output reported by transmission network operators. We find slightly better accuracy from satellite data, but greater stability from reanalysis data. We correct for systematic bias by matching our simulations to the mean bias in modeling individual sites, then examine the long-term patterns, variability and correlation with power demand across Europe, using thirty years of simulated outputs. The results quantify how the increasing deployment of PV substantially changes net power demand and affects system adequacy and ramping requirements, with heterogeneous impacts across different European countries. The simulation code and the hourly simulations for all European countries are available freely via an interactive web platform, www.renewables.ninja.

Journal article

Staffell IL, Pfenninger S, 2016, Using Bias-Corrected Reanalysis to SimulateCurrent and Future Wind Power Output, Energy, Vol: 114, Pages: 1224-1239, ISSN: 0360-5442

Reanalysis models are rapidly gaining popularity for simulating wind power output due to their convenience and global coverage. However, they should only be relied upon once thoroughly proven. This paper reports the first international validation of reanalysis for wind energy, testing NASA's MERRA and MERRA-2 in 23 European countries. Both reanalyses suffer significant spatial bias, overestimating wind output by 50% in northwest Europe and underestimating by 30% in the Mediterranean. We derive national correction factors, and show that after calibration national hourly output can be modelled with R2 above 0.95. Our underlying data are made freely available to aid future research.We then assess Europe's wind resources with twenty-year simulations of the current and potential future fleets. Europe's current average capacity factor is 24.2%, with countries ranging from 19.5% (Germany) to 32.4% (Britain). Capacity factors are rising due to improving technology and locations; for example, Britain's wind fleet is now 23% more productive than in 2005. Based on the current planning pipeline, we estimate Europe's average capacity factor could increase by nearly a third to 31.3%. Countries with large stakes in the North Sea will see significant gains, with Britain's average capacity factor rising to 39.4% and Germany's to 29.1%.

Journal article

Mechleri E, Staffell I, Lawal A, Ramos A, Shah N, Mac Dowell Net al., 2016, Evaluation of Process Control Strategies for Normal, Flexible and Upset Operation Conditions of CO2 Post Combustion Capture Processes, 2016/07

This project focuses on performing an evaluation of process control strategies for normal and flexible operation conditions of CO2 post-combustion capture (PCC) processes. PCC is a promising, near-term technology for large-scale deployment for the decarbonisation of the power generation and other sectors. However, the integration of this technology imposes a well-known efficiency penalty on the power plant with which it is integrated. Once an optimal process design has been identified, this energy penalty can be somewhat reduced via application of an appropriate control strategy to the PCC plant. An appropriate process control strategy is also fundamental to guarantee the safety and feasibility of the process under flexible operating conditions that the power plants may be subject to.The aim of this project is to develop the process control strategy, to select appropriate control variables for a PCC process, and design efficient control structures for operation of a post-combustion capture process with minimum energy requirements for coal and natural gas power plants. The control structures are developed for power plant operating ranges of around 50% to 100% load.

Report

Mechleri E, Rivotti P, Staffell I, Lawal A, Ramos A, Shah N, Mac Dowell Net al., 2016, Evaluation of Process Control Strategies for Normal, Flexible and Upset Operation Conditions of CO2 Post Combustion Capture Processes

Mechleri E, Staffell I, Lawal A, Ramos A, Shah N, Mac Dowell Nclose, 2016, Evaluation of Process Control Strategies for Normal, Flexible and Upset Operation Conditions of CO2 Post Combustion Capture Processes, 2016/07

Report

Staffell IL, Rustomji M, 2016, Maximising the value of electricity storage, Journal of Energy Storage, Vol: 8, Pages: 212-225, ISSN: 2352-152X

Grid-scale energy storage promises to reduce the cost of decarbonising electricity, but is not yeteconomically viable. Either costs must fall, or revenue must be extracted from more of the servicesthat storage provides the electricity system. To help understand the economic prospects forstorage, we review the sources of revenue available and the barriers faced in accessing them. Wethen demonstrate a simple algorithm that maximises the profit from storage providing arbitragewith reserve under both perfect and no foresight, which avoids complex linear programmingtechniques. This is made open source and freely available to help promote further research.We demonstrate that battery systems in the UK could triple their profits by participating in thereserve market rather than just providing arbitrage. With no foresight of future prices, 75-95% ofthe optimal profits are gained. In addition, we model a battery combined with a 322 MW wind farmto evaluate the benefits of shifting time of delivery. The revenues currently available are notsufficient to justify the current investment costs for battery technologies, and so further revenuestreams and cost reductions are required.

Journal article

Mac Dowell N, Shah N, Staffell I, Heuberger Cet al., 2016, Quantifying the Value of CCS for the Future ElectricitySystem, Energy & Environmental Science, Vol: 9, Pages: 2497-2510, ISSN: 1754-5706

Many studies have quantified the cost of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) power plants, butrelatively few discuss or appreciate the unique value this technology provides to the electricity system.CCS is routinely identified as a key factor in least-cost transitions to a low-carbon electricitysystem in 2050, one with significant value by providing dispatchable and low-carbon electricity.This paper investigates production, demand and stability characteristics of the current and futureelectricity system. We analyse the Carbon Intensity (CI) of electricity systems composed of unabatedthermal (coal and gas), abated (CCS), and wind power plants for different levels of windavailability with a view to quantifying the value to the system of different generation mixes. As athought experiment we consider the supply side of a UK-sized electricity system and compare theeffect of combining wind and CCS capacity with unabated thermal power plants. The resultingcapacity mix, system cost and CI are used to highlight the importance of differentiating betweenintermittent and firm low-carbon power generators. We observe that, in the absence of energystorage or demand side management, the deployment of intermittent renewable capacity cannotsignificantly displace unabated thermal power, and consequently can achieve only moderatereductions in overall CI. A system deploying sufficient wind capacity to meet peak demand canreduce CI from 0.78 tCO2/MWh, a level according to unabated fossil power generation, to 0.38tCO2/MWh. The deployment of CCS power plants displaces unabated thermal plants, and whilstit is more costly than unabated thermal plus wind, this system can achieve an overall CI of 0.1tCO2/MWh. The need to evaluate CCS using a systemic perspective in order to appreciate itsunique value is a core conclusion of this study.

Journal article

Heuberger CF, Staffell I, Shah N, Mac Dowell Net al., Levelised Value of Electricity - A Systemic Approach to Technology Valuation, 26th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering - ESCAPE 26

Conference paper

Green RJ, Staffell, 2016, Electricity in Europe: exiting fossil fuels?, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol: 32, Pages: 282-303, ISSN: 1460-2121

There are many options for generating electricity with low carbon emissions, and the electrification of heatand transport can decarbonise energy use across the economy. This places the power sector at the forefrontof any move away from fossil fuels, even though fossil-fuelled generators are more dependable and flexiblethan nuclear reactors or intermittent renewables, and vital for the second-by-second balancing of supply anddemand. Renewables tend to supplement, rather than replace, fossil capacity, although output from fossilfuelledstations will fall and some will have to retire to avoid depressing wholesale power prices. At times oflow demand and high renewable output prices can turn negative, but electricity storage, long-distanceinterconnection and flexible demand may develop to absorb any excess generation. Simulations for GreatBritain show that while coal may be eliminated from the mix within a decade, natural gas has a long-termrole in stations with or without carbon capture and storage, depending on its cost and the price of carbon.

Journal article

Mac Dowell N, Staffell I, 2016, The role of flexible CCS in the UK's future energy system, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol: 48, Pages: 327-344, ISSN: 1750-5836

That CCS will be required to operate in a flexible and load following fashion in the diverse energy landscape of the 21st century is well recognised. However, what is less well understood is how these plants will be dispatched at the unit generator scale, and what effect this will have on the performance and behaviour of the plant at the individual unit operation level. To address this gap, we couple an investment and unit commitment energy system model with a detailed plant-level model of a super-critical coal-fired power station integrated with an amine-based post-combustion CO2 capture process. We provide insight into the likely role of coal and gas CCS plants in the UK's energy system in the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s. We then evaluate the impact that this has on the performance of an individual coal CCS plant operating in this system, and chart its evolution throughout this period. Owing to the increased frequency and duration of part-load operation, asset utilisation and average efficiency suffer, leading to a substantially increased LCOE, implying that CCS costs will need to decrease more rapidly than is currently expected. Further, as a direct consequence of the dynamic operation, the interaction of the CCS plants with the downstream CO2 transport network is characterised by highly transient behaviour, including periods during which no CO2 is injected to the transport network, implying that the transport system must therefore be designed to incorporate this variability of supply.

Journal article

Samsatli S, Staffell I, Samsatli NJ, 2015, Optimal design and operation of integrated wind-hydrogen-electricity networks for decarbonising the domestic transport sector in Great Britain, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 41, Pages: 447-475, ISSN: 1879-3487

This paper presents the optimal design and operation of integrated wind-hydrogen-electricity networks using the general mixed integer linear programming energy network model, STeMES (Samsatli and Samsatli, 2015). The network comprises: wind turbines; electrolysers, fuel cells, compressors and expanders; pressurised vessels and underground storage for hydrogen storage; hydrogen pipelines and electricity overhead/underground transmission lines; and fuelling stations and distribution pipelines.The spatial distribution and temporal variability of energy demands and wind availability were considered in detail in the model. The suitable sites for wind turbines were identified using GIS, by applying a total of 10 technical and environmental constraints (buffer distances from urban areas, rivers, roads, airports, woodland and so on), and used to determine the maximum number of new wind turbines that can be installed in each zone.The objective is the minimisation of the total cost of the network, subject to satisfying all of the demands of the domestic transport sector in Great Britain. The model simultaneously determines the optimal number, size and location of each technology, whether to transmit the energy as electricity or hydrogen, the structure of the transmission network, the hourly operation of each technology and so on. The cost of distribution was estimated from the number of fuelling stations and length of the distribution pipelines, which were determined from the demand density at the 1 km level.Results indicate that all of Britain's domestic transport demand can be met by on-shore wind through appropriately designed and operated hydrogen-electricity networks. Within the set of technologies considered, the optimal solution is: to build a hydrogen pipeline network in the south of England and Wales; to supply the Midlands and Greater London with hydrogen from the pipeline network alone; to use Humbly Grove underground storage for seasonal storage and pressurised ve

Journal article

Staffell IL, Bossmann T, 2015, The Shape of Future Electricity Demand: Exploring Load Curves in 2050s Germany and Britain, Energy, Vol: 90, Pages: 1317-1333, ISSN: 0360-5442

National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is setto change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat andtransport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood:contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scalingequally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasingthe requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability.This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countriesundergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’selectricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOADand DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistentlyshow peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GWin Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heatpumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand.The structure and shape of the future load curves are analysed, and impacts on the nationalelectricity systems are drawn.

Journal article

Staffell I, 2015, Zero carbon infinite COP heat from fuel cell CHP, Applied Energy, Vol: 147, Pages: 373-385, ISSN: 0306-2619

Journal article

Staffell I, Green R, 2015, Is There Still Merit in the Merit Order Stack? The Impact of Dynamic Constraints on Optimal Plant Mix, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol: 31, Pages: 43-53, ISSN: 1558-0679

The merit order stack is used to tackle a wide variety of problems involving electricity dispatch. The simplification it relies on is to neglect dynamic issues such as the cost of starting stations. This leads the merit order stack to give a poor representation of the hourly pattern of prices and under-estimate the optimal level of investment in both peaking and inflexible baseload generators, and thus their run-times by up to 30%. We describe a simple method for incorporating start-up costs using a single equation derived from the load curve and station costs. The technique is demonstrated on the British electricity system in 2010 to test its performance against actual outturn, and in a 2020 scenario with increased wind capacity where it is compared to a dynamic unit-commitment scheduler. Our modification yields a better representation of electricity prices and reduces the errors in capacity investment by a factor of two.

Journal article

Dodds PE, Staffell L, Hawkes AD, Li F, Grunewald P, McDowall W, Ekins Pet al., 2015, Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for heating: A review, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 40, Pages: 2065-2083, ISSN: 1879-3487

Journal article

Green RJ, Staffell I, 2015, Evidence on Wind Farm Performance Decline in the UK, Evidence on Wind Farm Performance Decline in the UK

Onshore wind farms in the UK have aged at about the same rate as other kinds ofpower station. The average wind farm has an annual load factor of about 28% whenfirst commissioned, which declines by about 0.4 percentage points per year. After 15years, the load factor would have fallen to 23%. This ageing does not appear to havemade developers replace their farms early. Forty out of the first forty-five windfarms commissioned in the UK were still operating at this age; four had beenrepowered. Taking this deterioration into account raises the levelised cost ofelectricity by around 9% over a 24-year lifespan, discounting at 10 per cent a year.This is a summary of the peer-reviewed paper “How does wind farm performancedecline with age?” published in Renewable Energy, vol. 65, pp 775-786, which isavailable to download from http://tinyurl.com/wind-decline.

Report

Green RJ, Staffell I, Storage in the electricity market, International Ruhr Energy Conference 2015

Conference paper

Staffell I, Green R, 2014, How does wind farm performance decline with age?, RENEWABLE ENERGY, Vol: 66, Pages: 775-786, ISSN: 0960-1481

Journal article

Green R, Staffell I, Vasilakos N, 2014, Divide and Conquer? k-Means Clustering of Demand Data Allows Rapid and Accurate Simulations of the British Electricity System, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, Vol: 61, Pages: 251-260, ISSN: 0018-9391

Journal article

Staffell IL, Green RJ, 2014, Summary of Wind Farm Performance Decline in the UK

This note provides a summary of the paper “How does wind farm performance decline with age?” Renewable Energy, vol. 65, pp 775-786, which is available to download from tinyurl.com/wind-decline.

Report

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