Imperial College London


Faculty of Natural SciencesCentre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Natural Resource Management



+44 (0)20 7594 2206j.mumford Website




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Publication Type

205 results found

Mumford J, 2021, Design and evaluation of programmes integrating the sterile insect technique, Sterile Insect Technique: Principles and Practice in Area-wide Integrated Pest Management, Editors: Dyck, Hendrichs, Robinson, Publisher: CRC Press, Pages: 731-752, ISBN: 9781003035572

Area-wide integrated pest management is designed for specific purposes, and an economic evaluation should determine its performance against those purposes. The sterile insect technique is used for eradication, suppression, containment and prevention, each of which has different performance measures. Eradication or suppression of insect pest populations using the sterile insect technique (SIT), together with other area-wide control measures, may require significant initial capital investments to achieve long-term returns in subsequent periods. It may also raise questions about the distribution of benefits or the justification of public or private pest control efforts, given long-term uncertainties about the pest challenge and the potential of new control options. A consistent and transparent evaluation is needed to analyse the benefits and costs of such projects and to demonstrate their value, or in some cases to assess appropriate contributions to the costs by the various stakeholders who gain the benefits. Suppression must be compared with expected losses and costs in alternative conditions without SIT application, either from recent experience prior to implementation of the SIT or with similar areas without SIT treatment. Preventive SIT should reduce the frequency of outbreaks compared with experience prior to the application of the SIT or in similar areas elsewhere without SIT use. This chapter outlines the process of benefit/cost analysis, in which itemized future costs and benefits are compared in terms of present values. It also provides a review and examples of the application of benefit/cost analysis to the SIT. A checklist of benefit/cost analysis inputs and some example benefit/cost outputs are also presented.

Book chapter

Devos Y, Bonsall MB, Firbank LG, Mumford J, Nogué F, Wimmer EAet al., 2020, Gene Drive-Modified Organisms: Developing Practical Risk Assessment Guidance., Trends Biotechnol

Risk assessors, risk managers, developers, potential applicants, and other stakeholders at many levels discuss the need for new or further risk assessment guidance for deliberate environmental releases of gene drive-modified organisms. However, preparing useful and practical guidance entails challenges, to which we offer recommendations based on our experience drafting guidance.

Journal article

EFSA Panelon Genetically Modified Organisms GMO, Naegeli H, Bresson J-L, Dalmay T, Dewhurst IC, Epstein MM, Guerche P, Hejatko J, Moreno FJ, Mullins E, Nogué F, Rostoks N, Sánchez Serrano JJ, Savoini G, Veromann E, Veronesi F, Bonsall MB, Mumford J, Wimmer EA, Devos Y, Paraskevopoulos K, Firbank LGet al., 2020, Adequacy and sufficiency evaluation of existing EFSA guidelines for the molecular characterisation, environmental risk assessment and post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified insects containing engineered gene drives., EFSA J, Vol: 18, Pages: e06297-e06297

Advances in molecular and synthetic biology are enabling the engineering of gene drives in insects for disease vector/pest control. Engineered gene drives (that bias their own inheritance) can be designed either to suppress interbreeding target populations or modify them with a new genotype. Depending on the engineered gene drive system, theoretically, a genetic modification of interest could spread through target populations and persist indefinitely, or be restricted in its spread or persistence. While research on engineered gene drives and their applications in insects is advancing at a fast pace, it will take several years for technological developments to move to practical applications for deliberate release into the environment. Some gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have been tested experimentally in the laboratory, but none has been assessed in small-scale confined field trials or in open release trials as yet. There is concern that the deliberate release of GDMIs in the environment may have possible irreversible and unintended consequences. As a proactive measure, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has been requested by the European Commission to review whether its previously published guidelines for the risk assessment of genetically modified animals (EFSA, 2012 and 2013), including insects (GMIs), are adequate and sufficient for GDMIs, primarily disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, for deliberate release into the environment. Under this mandate, EFSA was not requested to develop risk assessment guidelines for GDMIs. In this Scientific Opinion, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) concludes that EFSA's guidelines are adequate, but insufficient for the molecular characterisation (MC), environmental risk assessment (ERA) and post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) of GDMIs. While the MC,ERA and PMEM of GDMIs can build on the existing risk assessment framework for GMIs that do not contain engineered gene driv

Journal article

Quinlan MM, Leach A, Mumford J, 2020, Classification of objectives in Systems Approaches to manage horticultural biosecurity risks for market access, Crop Protection, Pages: 105286-105286, ISSN: 0261-2194

Systems Approach is a method for management of pest risk used in international trade. It consists of a combination of independent phytosanitary measures which either reduce the risk directly or provide additional information to reduce the uncertainty and support decision making. Control points within a system allow pest managers to effectively respond to real time information and adjust the application of measures, if the performance of the system up to that point is not adequate. The ability to adjust a system during trade or after learning more about the pest or trade is one of the key advantages of Systems Approach. Our research group found that identification of specific objectives for each measure in a system enhances understanding of the overall risk and supports design or evaluation of risk management plans. While some terminology, tools and frameworks vary globally, this paper seeks further harmonization in order to better implement Systems Approach and achieve safe trade.

Journal article

Fellenor J, Barnett J, Potter C, Urquhart J, Mumford JD, Quine CPet al., 2020, ‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF), Journal of Risk Research, Vol: 23, Pages: 20-34, ISSN: 1366-9877

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.

Journal article

Fellenor J, Barnett J, Potter C, Urquhart J, Mumford JD, Quine CPet al., 2019, Ash dieback and other tree pests and pathogens: dispersed risk events and the Social Amplification of Risk Framework, Journal of Risk Research, Vol: 22, Pages: 1459-1478, ISSN: 1366-9877

It is widely acknowledged within the risk literature that the mass media play a pivotal role in shaping information about risk events for audiences. While some risk events reflect occurrences specific to particular times and locations, other risk events are more difficult to temporally and spatially situate as they are dispersed across years or months and are not constrained to particular geographic locations. Studies examining the relationship between the social amplification or attenuation of risks and their framing in the media have tended to focus on the former type of event. In this paper, we explore the social amplification of risk in relation to ash dieback disease (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus), a tree health issue that attracted intense media attention in the United Kingdom in 2012, and characterise what we designate as a dispersed risk event. Drawing on the influential Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF), we present a frame analysis of UK national newspaper articles to assess the connection between media coverage of dieback and risk amplification, and the extent to which dieback coverage drew on other tree health issues and objects of media attention. Focusing particularly on the blame frame around dieback, the paper considers the implications of conceptualising dispersed risk events for the SARF and its amplification metaphor. Moreover, given that risk events such as dieback are often associated with policy shifts, we suggest that there is value for risk communicators and policymakers in broadening their focus to incorporate more of the ‘history’ of risk events in order to anticipate likely anchors of public and media attention.Abbreviations: BSE: bovine spongiform encephalopathy; Defra: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; DED: Dutch elm disease; EAB: Emerald ash borer; EU: European Union; FMD: foot and mouth disease; FC: Forestry Commission; GSBB : Great spruce bark beetle; HCLM: Horse chestnut leaf miner; HTA: Horticultu

Journal article

Urquhart J, Potter C, Barnett J, Fellenor J, Mumford J, Quine CPet al., 2019, Using Q methodology to explore risk perception and public concern about tree pests and diseases: The case of ash dieback, Forests, Vol: 10, Pages: 761-761, ISSN: 1999-4907

This paper seeks to address the need for a more nuanced understanding of public perceptions of risk-related events by investigating the nature of and drivers for a ‘concerned public’ to an environmental issue, using the case study of the ash dieback outbreak in the UK. Q Methodology, an approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative data through factor analysis to identify different ways of thinking about a particular issue, was used to investigate the subjective response of local publics to ash dieback in East Kent, England, one of the early outbreak locations. Five narratives are identified, distinguishing perceptions of risk and management preferences: (1) call for better biosecurity; (2) resilient nature and techno-scientific solutions; (3) fatalistic; (4) disinterested; and (5) pro-active citizens. Four narratives demonstrated concern about the impacts of ash dieback on woodland ecosystems, but beliefs about whether the disease arrived in the UK on infected imported nursery stock or on windblown spores varied. The results of this study contribute to improving understanding of the drivers of differing public perceptions of tree health risks, an important consideration for designing socially acceptable strategies for managing tree pests and diseases, and other environmental risks, in the future.

Journal article

Mumford JD, Long CA, Weaver SC, Miura K, Wang E, Rotenberry R, Dotson EM, Benedict MQet al., 2019, Plasmodium falciparum (Haemosporodia: Plasmodiidae) and O'nyong-nyong virus development in a transgenic Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) strain, Journal of Medical Entomology, Vol: 56, Pages: 936-941, ISSN: 0022-2585

Transgenic Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes have been developed that confer sexual sterility on males that carry a transgene encoding a protein which cuts ribosomal DNA. A relevant risk concern with transgenic mosquitoes is that their capacity to transmit known pathogens could be greater than the unmodified form. In this study, the ability to develop two human pathogens in these transgenic mosquitoes carrying a homing endonuclease which is expressed in the testes was compared with its nontransgenic siblings. Infections were performed with Plasmodium falciparum (Welch) and o'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) and the results between the transgenic and nontransgenic sibling females were compared. There was no difference observed with ONNV isolate SG650 in intrathoracic infections or the 50% oral infectious dose measured at 14 d postinfection or in mean body titers. Some significant differences were observed for leg titers at the medium and highest doses for those individuals in which virus titer could be detected. No consistent difference was observed between the transgenic and nontransgenic comparator females in their ability to develop P. falciparum NF54 strain parasites. This particular transgene caused no significant effect in the ability of mosquitoes to become infected by these two pathogens in this genetic background. These results are discussed in the context of risk to human health if these transgenic individuals were present in the environment.

Journal article

Fellenor J, Barnett J, Potter C, Urquhart J, Mumford JD, Quine CP, Raum Set al., 2019, 'I'd like to report a suspicious looking tree': Public concern, public attention and the nature of reporting about ash dieback in the United Kingdom, Public Understanding of Science, Vol: 28, Pages: 339-356, ISSN: 0963-6625

'Public concern', a ubiquitous notion used in descriptive and explanatory modes by policy makers, academics and the media, is often presented as axiomatic. However, the variability with which it is deployed in different contexts, for example, as justification for policy attention or having equivalence with what is considered 'newsworthy', belies this status. This article presents an empirical analysis of emails and phone calls from the UK public to UK government agencies, reporting suspected cases of ash dieback disease - a tree health issue which attracted intense media and policy attention in the United Kingdom in 2012. We challenge the view that public attentiveness is necessarily indicative of public concern, or that media attention can be taken as its proxy. Examination of concern at macro and micro levels reveals heterogeneous processes with multiple dimensions. Understanding the nature of public concern is crucial in enabling more effective policy development and operational responses to risk-related issues.

Journal article

Baker E, Jeger MJ, Mumford JD, Brown Net al., 2019, Enhancing plant biosecurity with citizen science monitoring: comparing methodologies using reports of acute oak decline, Journal of Geographical Systems, Vol: 21, Pages: 111-131, ISSN: 1435-5930

Monitoring of forest pests and diseases is resource-intensive, requiring individual woodlands and trees to be visited and assessed for symptoms. Climate change and increased global connectivity are amplifying the scale of the monitoring challenge, with the number of new plant biosecurity threats increasing each year. Citizen science can increase the scale of pest and disease surveys. However, it is argued that citizen science data can be biased and inaccurate. This study examines potential biases in citizen science data by focusing on the case study of acute oak decline (AOD), a disease syndrome impacting native oaks within the UK associated with the beetle Agrilus biguttatus. Analysis was performed using two contrasting citizen science data set sources: the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Atlas, which is a repository for citizen science data sets, and Tree Alert, a targeted citizen science project that encouraged landowners and the public to report the occurrence of AOD. For both data sets, detection was more likely in locations with higher Coleoptera reports, suggesting that there are hubs of recorder activity. For the NBN data set, A. biguttatus was more likely to be found in areas where historic parks and gardens were present. For the Tree Alert data set, A. biguttatus was less likely to be found on open access land, indicating that the programme was successful in engaging private landowners. These results indicate that understanding sources of bias within reporting schemes is an important step in data analysis and that the inclusion of structured survey designs would enable the extent of biases to be documented.

Journal article

Collins CM, Bonds J, Quinlan M, Mumford Jet al., 2019, Effects of removal or reduced density of the malaria mosquito, Anopheles gambiae s.l., on interacting predators and competitors in local ecosystems, Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Vol: 33, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 0269-283X

New genetic control methods for mosquitoes may reduce vector species without direct effects on other species or the physical environment common with insecticides or drainage. Effects on predators and competitors could, however, be a concern as Anopheles gambiae s.l. is preyed upon in all life stages. We overview the literature and assess the strength of the ecological interactions identified. Most predators identified consume many other insect species and there is no evidence that any species preys exclusively on any anopheline mosquito. There is one predatory species with a specialisation on blood‐fed mosquitoes including An. gambiae s.l.. Evarcha culicivora is a jumping spider, known as the vampire spider, found around Lake Victoria. There is no evidence that these salticids require Anopheles mosquitoes and will readily consume blood‐fed Culex. Interspecific competition studies focus on other mosquitoes of larval habitats. Many of these take place in artificial cosms and give contrasting results to semi‐field studies. This may limit their extrapolation regarding the potential impact of reduced An. gambiae numbers. Previous mosquito control interventions are informative and identify competitive release and niche opportunism; so while the identity and relative abundance of the species present may change, the biomass available to predators may not.

Journal article

Mumford J, Leach A, Baranowski P, Holt J, Agstner B, Jones G, Alden J, Quinlan Met al., 2018, An analytical framework for consistent evaluation of pest and disease management technologies, International Congress of Plant Pathology (ICPP), Publisher: American Phytopathological Society, ISSN: 0031-949X

Conference paper

Burgess MM, Mumford JD, Lavery JV, 2018, Public engagement pathways for emerging GM insect technologies., BMC Proceedings, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1753-6561

Policy and management related to the release of organisms generated by emerging biotechnologies for pest management should be informed through public engagement. Regulatory decisions can be conceptually distinguished into the development of frameworks, the assessment of the release of a specific modified organism, and implementation decisions such as location and timing. Although these decisions are often intertwined in practice, the negotiation takes place at different stages of technology development and suggests different roles for public engagement. Some approaches to public engagement are more appropriate for different purposes and situations, and it is not always obvious how to go about matching the approach to the purpose. In addition to the diverse technologies involved in generating modified organisms, there are diverse publics with particular interests and different kinds of knowledge. Institutional interests range from commercial development to public regulation and future uptake. Contextual features, such as agency mandates, may limit or structure the extent and approach to public engagement. Different convening groups (government agencies, public interest groups, academics, businesses) and the kind of decision that is being considered determine what kind of input is needed and how the engaging groups will be constituted. This paper considers how the context of the release of genetically modified insects for pest control requires expanding approaches to the design of the public engagement.

Journal article

Goti-Aralucea L, Fitzpatrick M, Doering R, Reid D, Mumford J, Rindorf Aet al., 2018, "Overarching sustainability objectives overcome incompatible directions in the Common Fisheries Policy", Marine Policy, Vol: 91, Pages: 49-57, ISSN: 0308-597X

The lack of clarity in the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) must be addressed to create a more efficient balance across diverse ecological, economic and social dimensions. Particularly economic and social objectives present at an overarching level must be made explicit and addressed in lower level management measures, in order to link them to biological objectives and allow policy to build a balance across types of objectives. Selecting clear objectives is essential, particularly for policy impact assessment. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how more specific high level objectives to managing fisheries can be derived from stakeholders. The paper first reviews the definition of objectives, from a historical and conceptual perspective. Secondly, it discusses the issues of manageability and acceptability, and finally describes an articulation of the high level objectives derived from extensive stakeholder consultations at European and regional level. The results from workshops at the European level to identify objectives were further examined at regional level for the Baltic and North Seas in additional individual consultations. The German case addresses two seas (Baltic and North Seas), has a complex governance structure (due to federalism) and significant roles for the three types of actors (industry, government and environmental NGOs). The analysis suggests that establishing higher level sustainability objectives within the CFP can help diverse interest groups to develop a consensus on management actions to meet complex social goals.

Journal article

Mumford JD, Leach AW, Benedict MQ, Facchinelli L, Quinlan MMet al., 2018, Maintaining quality of candidate strains of transgenic mosquitoes for studies in containment facilities in disease endemic countries, Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, Vol: 18, Pages: 31-38, ISSN: 1530-3667

Transgenic mosquitoes are being developed as novel components of area-wide approaches to vector-borne disease control. Best practice is to develop these in phases, beginning with laboratory studies, before moving to field testing and inclusion in control programs, to ensure safety and prevent costly field testing of unsuitable strains. The process of identifying and developing good candidate strains requires maintenance of transgenic colonies over many generations in containment facilities. By working in disease endemic countries with target vector populations, laboratory strains may be developed and selected for properties that will enhance intended control efficacy in the next phase, while avoiding traits that introduce unnecessary risks. Candidate strains aiming toward field use must consistently achieve established performance criteria, throughout the process of scaling up from small study colonies to production of sufficient numbers for field testing and possible open release. Maintenance of a consistent quality can be demonstrated by a set of insect quality and insectary operating indicators, measured over time at predetermined intervals. These indicators: inform comparability of studies using various candidate strains at different times and locations; provide evidence of conformity relevant to compliance with terms of approval for regulated use; and can be used to validate some assumptions related to risk assessments covering the contained phase and for release into the environment.

Journal article

Fellenor JF, Barnett J, Potter C, Urquhart J, Mumford JD, Quine CPet al., 2018, The social amplification of risk on Twitter: the case of ash dieback disease in the United Kingdom, Journal of Risk Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1163-1183, ISSN: 1466-4461

It has long been recognised that the traditional media play a key role in representing risk and are a significant source of information which can shape how people perceive and respond to hazard events. Early work utilising the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) sought to understand the discrepancy between expert and lay perceptions of risk and patterns of risk intensification and attenuation with reference to the media. However, the advent of Web 2.0 challenges traditional models of communication. To date there has been limited consideration of social media within the SARF and its role in mediating processes of risk perception and communication. Against this backdrop, we focus on the social media platform Twitter to consider the social amplification of risk in relation to ash dieback disease (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus); a tree health issue that attracted intense media attention when it was first identified in the UK in 2012. We present an empirical analysis of 25,600 tweets in order to explore what people were saying about ash dieback on Twitter, who was talking about it and how they talked about it. Our discussion outlines the themes around which talk about ash dieback was orientated, the significance of users’ environmental ‘affiliations’ and the role of including links (URLs) to traditional media coverage. We utilise the notion of ‘piggybacking’ to demonstrate how information is customised in line with group/individual identities and interests and introduce the concept of the ‘frame fragment’ to illustrate how information is selected and moved around Twitter emphasising certain features of the messages. The paper affords a detailed consideration of the way in which people and organisations simultaneously appropriate, construct and pass on risk-relevant information. A conclusion is that social media has the potential to transform the media landscape within which the SARF was originally conceived, presenting renewe

Journal article

Urquhart J, Potter C, Barnett J, Fellenor J, Mumford J, Quine CPet al., 2017, Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: a case study in invasive tree pests and diseases, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol: 77, Pages: 172-178, ISSN: 1462-9011

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how ‘experts’ – defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders – construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

Journal article

Rindorf A, Mumford J, Baranowski P, Clausen LW, Garcia D, Hintzen NT, Kempf A, Leach A, Levontin P, Mace P, Mackinson S, Maravelias C, Prellezo R, Quetglas A, Tserpes G, Voss R, Reid Det al., 2017, Moving beyond the MSY concept to reflect multidimensional fisheries management objectives, Marine Policy, Vol: 85, Pages: 33-41, ISSN: 0308-597X

Maximising the long term average catch of single stock fisheries as prescribed by the globally-legislated MSY objective is unlikely to ensure ecosystem, economic, social and governance sustainability unless an effort is made to explicitly include these considerations. We investigated how objectives to be maximised can be combined with sustainability constraints aiming specifically at one or more of these four sustainability pillars. The study was conducted as a three-year interactive process involving 290 participating science, industry, NGO and management representatives from six different European regions. Economic considerations and inclusive governance were generally preferred as the key objectives to be maximised in complex fisheries, recognising that ecosystem, social and governance constraints are also key aspects of sustainability in all regions. Relative preferences differed between regions and cases but were similar across a series of workshops, different levels of information provided and the form of elicitation methods used as long as major shifts in context or stakeholder composition did not occur. Maximising inclusiveness in governance, particularly the inclusiveness of affected stakeholders, was highly preferred by participants across the project. This suggests that advice incorporating flexibility in the interpretation of objectives to leave room for meaningful inclusiveness in decision-making processes is likely to be a prerequisite for stakeholder buy-in to management decisions.

Journal article

Holt J, Leach AW, Johnson S, Tu DM, Nhu DT, Anh NT, Quinlan MM, Whittle PJL, Mengersen K, Mumford JDet al., 2017, Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains., Risk Analysis, Vol: 38, Pages: 297-310, ISSN: 0272-4332

The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain.

Journal article

Urquhart J, Potter C, Barnett J, Fellenor J, Mumford J, Quine CP, Bayliss Het al., 2017, Awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours: public perceptions of invasive tree pests and pathogens in the UK, Biological Invasions, Vol: 19, Pages: 2567-2582, ISSN: 1573-1464

The growing incidence of invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks is recognised as an increasingthreat to ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Linked to global trade, human movement and climate change, a number of outbreaks have attracted high public and media attention. However, there is surprisingly little evidence characterisingthe nature of public attentiveness to theseevents, nor how publics might respond to evolving outbreaksand the management actions taken. This paper presentsfindings from an online questionnaire involving1,334 respondents nationally-representative of the Britishpublic to assess awareness,concern andwillingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. Despite revealing low levels of awareness and knowledge, the results indicate that the Britishpublic isconcernedabout the health of trees, forests and woodlands and ismoderately willing to adopt biosecure behaviours. A key finding is that membership of environmentalorganisationsand strongplace identity are likely to engender higher awareness and levels of concern about tree pests and diseases. Further, those who visit woodlands regularly are likely to be more aware than non-visitors, and gardeners are more likely to be concerned than non-gardeners. Women, older respondents, those with strongplace identityand dependence, members of environmental organisations, woodland visitors and gardenerswere most likely to express a willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours.A comparison with findings from a survey conducted by the authors threeyears previouslyshowsa decline over time in awareness, concern and willingness.

Journal article

Booy O, Mill AC, Roy HE, Hiley A, Moore N, Robertson P, Baker S, Brazier M, Bue M, Bullock R, Campbell S, Eyre D, Foster J, Hatton-Ellis M, Long J, Macadam C, Morrison-Bell C, Mumford J, Newman J, Parrott D, Payne R, Renals T, Rodgers E, Spencer M, Stebbing P, Sutton-Croft M, Walker KJ, Ward A, Whittaker S, Wyn Get al., 2017, Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species, Biological Invasions, Vol: 19, Pages: 2401-2417, ISSN: 1387-3547

Robust tools are needed to prioritise the management of invasive non-native species (INNS). Risk assessment is commonly used to prioritise INNS, but fails to take into account the feasibility of management. Risk management provides a structured evaluation of management options, but has received little attention to date. We present a risk management scheme to assess the feasibility of eradicating INNS that can be used, in conjunction with existing risk assessment schemes, to support prioritisation. The Non-Native Risk Management scheme (NNRM) can be applied to any predefined area and any taxa. It uses semi-quantitative response and confidence scores to assess seven key criteria: Effectiveness, Practicality, Cost, Impact, Acceptability, Window of opportunity and Likelihood of re-invasion. Scores are elicited using expert judgement, supported by available evidence, and consensus-building methods. We applied the NNRM to forty-one INNS that threaten Great Britain (GB). Thirty-three experts provided scores, with overall feasibility of eradication assessed as ‘very high’ (8 species), ‘high’ (6), ‘medium’ (8), ‘low’ (10) and ‘very low’ (9). The feasibility of eradicating terrestrial species was higher than aquatic species. Lotic freshwater and marine species scored particularly low. Combining risk management and existing risk assessment scores identified six established species as priorities for eradication. A further six species that are not yet established were identified as priorities for eradication on arrival as part of contingency planning. The NNRM is one of the first INNS risk management schemes that can be used with existing risk assessments to prioritise INNS eradication in any area.

Journal article

Mumford J, Gullino ML, Stack J, Fletcher J, Quinlan MMet al., 2017, The need for international perspectives to solve global biosecurity challenges, Practical tools for plant and food biosecurity, Editors: Gullino, Stack, Fletcher, Mumford, Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Pages: 363-384, ISBN: 9783319468976

Global biosecurity presents international challenges because the majority of instances of novel organism introductions are due to international movements of goods, food and people and the likelihood of introduced agents crossing political boundaries. The inherent vulnerability of environments to introductions of alien, or non-indigenous, biological agents is due to the greater ecological vulnerability to these exotic entrants in the receiving environment. Agencies and individuals responsible for approving intentional introductions of beneficial organisms recognize this relationship and consider potential impacts in risk assessments prior to release of the organisms. However, some of those responsible for detection and control of novel pathogens and pests, introduced either inadvertently or intentionally, lack extensive training in ecology, environmental biology, and pathology, and may therefore underestimate the risk from such events. The latter is a key factor in the case of food safety. Europe is particularly vulnerable to cross-border movement of introduced agents, and one response to this has been the recent revision of plant health regimes throughout the European Union. Other responses include project-based initiatives, such as PLANTFOODSEC.

Book chapter

Rindorf A, Dichmont CM, Thorson J, Charles A, Clausen LW, Degnbol P, Garcia D, Hintzen NT, Kempf A, Levin P, Mace P, Maravelias C, Minto C, Mumford J, Pascoe S, Prellezo R, Punt AE, Reid DG, Roeckmann C, Stephenson RL, Thebaud O, Tserpes G, Voss Ret al., 2017, Inclusion of ecological, economic, social, and institutional considerations when setting targets and limits for multispecies fisheries, ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol: 74, Pages: 453-463, ISSN: 1054-3139

Targets and limits for long-term management are used in fisheries advice to operationalize the way management reflects societal priorities on ecological, economic, social and institutional aspects. This study reflects on the available published literature as well as new research presented at the international ICES/Myfish symposium on targets and limits for long term fisheries management. We examine the inclusion of ecological, economic, social and institutional objectives in fisheries management, with the aim of progressing towards including all four objectives when setting management targets or limits, or both, for multispecies fisheries. The topics covered include ecological, economic, social and governance objectives in fisheries management, consistent approaches to management, uncertainty and variability, and fisheries governance. We end by identifying ten ways to more effectively include multiple objectives in setting targets and limits in ecosystem based fisheries management.

Journal article

Levontin P, Baranowski P, Leach AW, Bailey A, Mumford JD, Quetglas A, Kell LTet al., 2017, On the role of visualisation in fisheries management, Marine Policy, Vol: 78, Pages: 114-121, ISSN: 1872-9460

Environmental change has focused the attention of scientists, policy makers and the wider public on the uncertainty inherent in interactions between people and the environment. Governance in fisheries is required to involve stakeholder participation and tobe more inclusive in its remit, which is no longer limited to ensuring a maximum sustainable yield from a single stock but considers species and habitat interactions, as well as social and economic issues. The increase in scope, complexity and awareness of uncertainty in fisheries management has brought methodological and institutional changes throughout the world. Progress towards comprehensive, explicit and participatory risk management in fisheries depends on effective communication. Graphic design and data visualisation have been underused in fisheries for communicating science to a wider range of stakeholders. In this paper, some of the general aspects of designing visualisations of modeling results are discussed and illustrated withexamples from the EU funded MYFISH project. These infographicswere tested in stakeholder workshops, and improved through feedbackfrom that 2process. It is desirable to convey not just modelling results but a sense of how reliable various models are. A survey was developed to judge reliability of different components of fisheries modelling: the quality of data, the quality of knowledge, model validation efforts, and robustness to key uncertainties. The results of these surveys were visualized for ten different models, and presented alongside the main case study.

Journal article

Pimentel R, Lopes DJH, Mexia AMM, Mumford JDet al., 2017, Seasonality of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Terceira and Sao Jorge Islands, Azores, Portugal, Journal of Insect Science, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1536-2442

Population dynamics studies are very important for any area-wide control program as they provide detailed knowledge about the relationship of Medfly [Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann)] life cycle with host availability and abundance. The main goal of this study is to analyse seasonality of C. capitata in Terceira and Sao Jorge Islands (Azores archipelago) using field and laboratory data collected during (2010–2014) CABMEDMAC (MAC/3/A163) project. The results from Sao Jorge Island indicate significantly lower male/female ratio than on Terceira Island. This is an important finding specially regarding when stablishing the scenario parameters for a sterile insect technique application in each island. The population dynamics of C. capitata are generally linked with host fruit availability and abundance. However, on Terceira Island fruit infestation levels are not synchronized with the trap counts. For example, there was Medfly infestations in some fruits [e.g., Solanum mauritianum (Scop.)] while in the nearby traps there were no captures at the same time. From this perspective, it is important to denote the importance of wild invasive plants, on the population dynamics of C. capitata, as well important to consider the possibility of having different densities of traps according to the characteristics of each area in order to improve the network of traps surveillance’s sensitivity on Terceira Island.

Journal article

Pimentel R, Lopes DJH, Mexia AMM, Mumford JDet al., 2016, Validation of a geographic weighted regression analysis as a tool for area-wide integrated pest management programs for Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Terceira Island, Azores, International Journal of Pest Management, Vol: 63, Pages: 172-184, ISSN: 0967-0874

Extrapolation from quantitative sampling to the surrounding areas is an essential feature of many aspects of real world applications in pest management decision-making. However, these decisions are only as good as the accuracy of the methods that provided the information. The problem of estimating Mediterranean fruit fly population densities from trap grids is a specific case. The efficiency of three methods to estimate fruit flies trapped per day values for non-sampled areas in Terceira Island is evaluated, the inverse distance weighted, ordinary Kriging and the geographic weighted regression (GWR). Each method has its own specificities and merits. The results demonstrate that the GWR method is capable of estimating hotspots for the next season and can be used to identify ecological corridors over a non-sampled area. The high spatial heterogeneity and topographical conditions present on Terceira Island may explain why a more mathematically complex method is more reliable than simpler methods for use in possible future wide-area control program for medfly.

Journal article

Hou CY, Kittayapong P, Mumford J, Carrasco LRet al., 2016, Dengue transmission through human movement in regular and seasonal patterns on Koh Chang island in Thailand, International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance (IMED) 2016, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 95-95, ISSN: 1201-9712

Conference paper

Valerio L, North A, Collins CM, Mumford JD, Facchinelli L, Spaccapelo R, Benedict MQet al., 2016, Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations., Insects, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2075-4450

The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks.

Journal article

Holt J, Leach A, Mumford JD, MacLeod A, Tomlinson D, Baker R, Christodoulou M, Russo L, Marechal Aet al., 2016, Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory, Parma, Italy, Publisher: European Food Safety Authority, 2016:EN-1062

This report demonstrates a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two types of model were developed: a general commodity model that simulates distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month; and a consignment model that simulates the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The general pathway model has two modules. Module 1 is a trade pathway model, with a Eurostat database of five years of monthly trade volumes for each specific commodity into the EU28 from all source countries and territories. Infestation levels based on interception records, commercial quality standards or other information determine volume of infested commodity entering and transhipped within the EU. Module 2 allocates commodity volumes to processing, retail use and waste streams and overlays the distribution onto EU NUTS2 regions based on population densities and processing unit locations. Transfer potential to domestic host crops is a function of distribution of imported infested product and area of domestic production in NUTS2 regions, pest dispersal potential, and phenology of susceptibility in domestic crops. The consignment model covers the several routes on supply chains for processing and retail use. The output of the general pathway model is a distribution of estimated volumes of infested produce by NUTS2 region across the EU28, by month or annually; this is then related to the accessible susceptible domestic crop. Risk is expressed as a potential volume of infested fruit in potential contact with an area of susceptible domestic host crop. The output of the consignment model is a volume of infested produce retained at each stage along the specific consignment trade chain.


Brant HL, Ewers RM, Vythilingam I, Drakeley C, Benedick S, Mumford JDet al., 2016, Vertical stratification of adult mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) within a tropical rainforest in Sabah, Malaysia, Malaria Journal, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1475-2875

BackgroundMalaria cases caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, a simian parasite naturally found in long-tailed and pig-tailed macaques, are increasing rapidly in Sabah, Malaysia. One hypothesis is that this increase is associated with changes in land use. A study was carried out to identify the anopheline vectors present in different forest types and to observe the human landing behaviour of mosquitoes. MethodsMosquito collections were carried out using human landing catches at ground and canopy levels in the Tawau Division of Sabah. Collections were conducted along an anthropogenic disturbance gradient (primary forest, lightly logged virgin jungle reserve and salvage logged forest) between 18:00-22:00h. ResultsAnopheles balabacensis, a vector of P. knowlesi, was the predominant species in all collection areas, accounting for 70% of the total catch, with a peak landing time of 18:30-20:00h. Anopheles balabacensis had a preference for landing on humans at ground level compared to the canopy (p<0.0001). A greater abundance of mosquitoes were landing in the logged forest compared to the primary forest (p<0.0001). There was no difference between mosquito abundance in the logged forest and lightly logged forest (p=0.554). A higher evening temperature (p<0.0001) and rainfall (p<0.0001) significantly decreased mosquito abundance during collection nights. ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the potential ability of An. balabacensis to transmit P. knowlesi between canopy-dwelling simian hosts and ground-dwelling humans, and that forest disturbance increases the abundance of this disease vector. These results, in combination with regional patterns of land use change, may partly explain the rapid rise in P. knowlesi cases in Sabah. This study provides essential data on anthropophily for the principal vector of P. knowlesi which is important for the planning of vector control strategies.

Journal article

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