Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineDepartment of Surgery & Cancer

Visiting Professor



+44 (0)20 3311 7312j.powell




4E05Charing Cross HospitalCharing Cross Campus






BibTex format

author = {Thompson, SG and Bown, MJ and Glover, MJ and Jones, E and Masconi, KL and Michaels, JA and Powell, JT and Ulug, P and Sweeting, MJ},
doi = {10.3310/hta22430},
pages = {1--+},
title = {Screening women aged 65 years or over for abdominal aortic aneurysm: a modelling study and health economic evaluation},
url = {},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - BackgroundAbdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes have been established for men in the UK to reduce deaths from AAA rupture. Whether or not screening should be extended to women is uncertain.ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population screening for AAAs in women and compare a range of screening options.DesignA discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed to provide a clinically realistic model of screening, surveillance, and elective and emergency AAA repair operations. Input parameters specifically for women were employed. The model was run for 10 million women, with parameter uncertainty addressed by probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses.SettingPopulation screening in the UK.ParticipantsWomen aged ≥ 65 years, followed up to the age of 95 years.InterventionsInvitation to ultrasound screening, followed by surveillance for small AAAs and elective surgical repair for large AAAs.Main outcome measuresNumber of operations undertaken, AAA-related mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), NHS costs and cost-effectiveness with annual discounting.Data sourcesAAA surveillance data, National Vascular Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics, trials of elective and emergency AAA surgery, and the NHS Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme (NAAASP).Review methodsSystematic reviews of AAA prevalence and, for elective operations, suitability for endovascular aneurysm repair, non-intervention rates, operative mortality and literature reviews for other parameters.ResultsThe prevalence of AAAs (aortic diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm) was estimated as 0.43% in women aged 65 years and 1.15% at age 75 years. The corresponding attendance rates following invitation to screening were estimated as 73% and 62%, respectively. The base-case model adopted the same age at screening (65 years), definition of an AAA (diameter of ≥ 3.0 cm), surveillance intervals (1 year for AAAs with diameter of 3.0–4.
AU - Thompson,SG
AU - Bown,MJ
AU - Glover,MJ
AU - Jones,E
AU - Masconi,KL
AU - Michaels,JA
AU - Powell,JT
AU - Ulug,P
AU - Sweeting,MJ
DO - 10.3310/hta22430
EP - 1
PY - 2018///
SN - 1366-5278
SP - 1
TI - Screening women aged 65 years or over for abdominal aortic aneurysm: a modelling study and health economic evaluation
UR -
UR -
UR -
VL - 22
ER -