Imperial College London

Jeff Eaton

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer in HIV Epidemiology







Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Houben, RM and Menzies, NA and Sumner, T and Huynh, GH and Arinaminpathy, N and Goldhaber-Fiebert, JD and Lin, HH and Wu, CY and Mandal, S and Pandey, S and Suen, SC and Bendavid, E and Azman, AS and Dowdy, DW and Bacaër, N and Rhines, AS and Feldman, MW and Handel, A and Whalen, CC and Chang, ST and Wagner, BG and Eckhoff, PA and Trauer, JM and Denholm, JT and McBryde, ES and Cohen, T and Salomon, JA and Pretorius, C and Lalli, M and Eaton, JW and Boccia, D and Hosseini, M and Gomez, GB and Sahu, S and Daniels, C and Ditiu, L and Chin, DP and Wang, L and Chadha, VK and Rade, K and Dewan, P and Hippner, P and Charalambous, S and Grant, AD and Churchyard, G and Pillay, Y and Mametja, LD and Kimerling, ME and Vassall, A and White, RG},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1},
journal = {Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e806--e815},
title = {Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models},
url = {},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB S
AU - Houben,RM
AU - Menzies,NA
AU - Sumner,T
AU - Huynh,GH
AU - Arinaminpathy,N
AU - Goldhaber-Fiebert,JD
AU - Lin,HH
AU - Wu,CY
AU - Mandal,S
AU - Pandey,S
AU - Suen,SC
AU - Bendavid,E
AU - Azman,AS
AU - Dowdy,DW
AU - Bacaër,N
AU - Rhines,AS
AU - Feldman,MW
AU - Handel,A
AU - Whalen,CC
AU - Chang,ST
AU - Wagner,BG
AU - Eckhoff,PA
AU - Trauer,JM
AU - Denholm,JT
AU - McBryde,ES
AU - Cohen,T
AU - Salomon,JA
AU - Pretorius,C
AU - Lalli,M
AU - Eaton,JW
AU - Boccia,D
AU - Hosseini,M
AU - Gomez,GB
AU - Sahu,S
AU - Daniels,C
AU - Ditiu,L
AU - Chin,DP
AU - Wang,L
AU - Chadha,VK
AU - Rade,K
AU - Dewan,P
AU - Hippner,P
AU - Charalambous,S
AU - Grant,AD
AU - Churchyard,G
AU - Pillay,Y
AU - Mametja,LD
AU - Kimerling,ME
AU - Vassall,A
AU - White,RG
DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1
EP - 815
PY - 2016///
SN - 2214-109X
SP - 806
TI - Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
T2 - Lancet Global Health
UR -
UR -
VL - 4
ER -