Imperial College London
Alternate

Jeff Imai-Eaton

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

jeffrey.eaton

 
 
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Location

 

UG7Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Eaton:2019:10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437,
author = {Eaton, J and Brown, T and Puckett, R and Glaubius, R and Mutai, K and Bao, L and Salomon, J and Stover, J and Mahy, M and Hallett, T},
doi = {10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437},
journal = {AIDS},
pages = {S235--S244},
title = {The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid modelnew tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437},
volume = {33},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Objectives: Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design: Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance(ANC-SS) data.Methods: We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to moreaccurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, wedeveloped a new functional form, termed ‘r-hybrid’, for the HIV transmission rate whichcombines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and declinefollowed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted ther-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalencedata from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 34 SSA countries. We used leaveone-out cross validation with household survey HIV prevalence to compare model predictions.Results: The r-hybrid and r-spline models typically provided similar HIV prevalence trends, butsometimes qualitatively different assessments of recent incidence trends due to differentstructural assumptions about the HIV transmission rate. The r-hybrid model had the lowestaverage continuous ranked probability score, indicating the best model predictions. Coverage of95% posterior predictive intervals was 91.5% for the r-hybrid model, versus 87.2% and 85.5%for r-spline and r-trend, respectively.Conclusions: The EPP-ASM and r-hybrid models improve consistency of EPP and Spectrum,improve the epidemiological assumptions underpinning recent HIV incidence estimates, andimprove estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence trends. Countries that usegeneral population survey and ANC-SS data to estimate HIV epidemic trends should considerusing these tools.
AU  - Eaton,J
AU  - Brown,T
AU  - Puckett,R
AU  - Glaubius,R
AU  - Mutai,K
AU  - Bao,L
AU  - Salomon,J
AU  - Stover,J
AU  - Mahy,M
AU  - Hallett,T
DO  - 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437
EP  - 244
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0269-9370
SP  - 235
TI  - The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid modelnew tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa
T2  - AIDS
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/74381
VL  - 33
ER  -
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