Karim Abadir is Professor of Financial Econometrics at the Business School since 2005. He was in charge of recruiting from March 2006 and Group Head from July 2007 until Sept 2008. He holds a DPhil from Oxford University. His MA (Economics) and BA (Major in Economics, Minor in Business) are from the American University in Cairo. He went to school at the Collège de la Sainte Famille (Jésuites) in Cairo. He has worked as:
1988-92: Lecturer in Economics, Lincoln College, Oxford University.
1992-93: Research Fellow in Economics, American University in Cairo.
1993: Professional diver, Sinai, Egypt.
1993-94: Senior Lecturer in Statistics and Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1994-96: Reader in Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1996-2005: Professor of Econometrics and Statistics (Chair equally split between the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Economics & Related Studies) and Head of the Statistics Group, University of York.
He is credited with having solved in his DPhil a major long-standing problem in Mathematical Statistics and Time Series that was open since the 1950's (the explicit formulae for the distributions of unit-root statistics). More recently, he has predicted the timing of the 2008 recession a year in advance, and the different timings of the recoveries in various Western countries (see "Recession/recovery forecasts" below).
[Further details are in various editions of Who's Who in the World, Dictionary of International Biography, Cambridge Blue Book. Doctors may be interested in the work of his grandfather.]
* Founding member of the liberal party Al Masreyeen Al Ahrrar (translates as Free/Liberal Egyptians), which has been granted Observer (2012) then Full (2014) Membership of Liberal International. Member of its first Political Office (2011-2013) and first Supreme Council (2013-2017). Drafted its economic programme in April 2011 (prior to its launch) and Chair of its Economics Committee September 2011 to March 2013 (Summary of programme in Ar & Eng). Chair of the Data Analysis and Information Committee 2011-2012. See documented (but unpunished) fraud of elections 2011-12.
2013 Economic summary on CNBC's Squawk Box.
* Recession/recovery forecasts (based on the research agenda launched by Abadir & Talmain, 2002, Review of Economic Studies):
- Recession? What Recession?!
(Done on the 7th of March 2008 for the alumni magazine.)
- A predictable recession, and what to do about it.
- Is the economic crisis over (and out)?
(Used GIPSI instead of PIIGS, since the start of the crisis, as the sequencing would be more accurate.)
- LSE blog: Triple-dip, coming to a town near you...
- Deficit cuts should be postponed (on Swiss financial TV Dukascopy) & subsequent Expert Commentary.
- 2015 Summary on CNBC's Power Lunch and SABC news. See also this striking graph (posted Spring/Summer 2015) that explains why you shouldn't blame China for the recent market slides which were predicted back then & have to do with fundamentals.
Updates on Twitter.
et al., 2014, ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY FOR WEIGHTED SUMS OF LINEAR PROCESSES, Econometric Theory, Vol:30, ISSN:0266-4666, Pages:252-284
Abadir KM, Distaso W, Žikeš F, 2014, Design-free estimation of variance matrices, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:181, ISSN:1872-6895, Pages:165-180
Abadir KM, 2013, Lies, damned lies, and statistics? Examples from finance and economics., Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Vol:5, ISSN:2080-119X, Pages:231-248
Abadir KM, Caggiano G, Talmain G, 2013, Nelson-Plosser revisited: The ACF approach, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:175, ISSN:0304-4076, Pages:22-34
Abadir KM, 2012, The square root of a matrix, Journal of Time Series Econometrics, Vol:4