Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMaria-GloriaBasanez

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Neglected Tropical Diseases
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3295m.basanez Website

 
 
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Location

 

503School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Walker:2017:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.005,
author = {Walker, M and Stolk, WA and Dixon, MA and Bottomley, C and Diawara, L and Traore, MO and de, Vlas SJ and Basanez, M-G},
doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.005},
journal = {Epidemics},
pages = {4--15},
title = {Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.005},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developedand used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual orbiannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization(WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025).Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements andtested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from twoWest African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection wasbrought to zero circa 2007–2009 after 15–17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated theseinterventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments andtrained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluatingthe projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHOand ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence,while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with thehighest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can beextremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for3–5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-eliminationsurveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detectpossible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty anddifferences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector controlin high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timelinefo
AU  - Walker,M
AU  - Stolk,WA
AU  - Dixon,MA
AU  - Bottomley,C
AU  - Diawara,L
AU  - Traore,MO
AU  - de,Vlas SJ
AU  - Basanez,M-G
DO  - 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.005
EP  - 15
PY  - 2017///
SN  - 1755-4365
SP  - 4
TI  - Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal
T2  - Epidemics
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.005
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000397449500002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48999
VL  - 18
ER  -
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