Imperial College London


Business School

Assistant Professor in Economics



+44 (0)20 7594 9059m.muuls CV




CAGB483City and Guilds BuildingSouth Kensington Campus





Publication Type

23 results found

Chassagneux J-F, Chotai H, Muûls M, 2017, A Forward-Backward SDEs Approach to Pricing in Carbon Markets, Publisher: Springer, ISBN: 9783319631158

In this chapter, we consider a model for the valuation of carbon emissions market allowances. In each year from 2006 to 2011 inclusive, combustion installations accounted for between 72 and 75% of verified emissions under the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System), see Fig. 3.1. It is reasonable to assume that most of these installations are involved in electricity generation. Given the importance of power producers in such markets, the model focuses on the electricity generation sector.


Alberts G, Gurguc Z, Koutroumpis P, Martin R, Muuls M, Napp Tet al., 2016, Competition and norms: a self-defeating combination?, Energy Policy, Vol: 96, Pages: 504-523, ISSN: 1873-6777

This paper investigates the effects of information feedback mechanisms on electricity and heating usage at a student hall of residence in London. In a randomised control trial, we formulate different treatments such as feedback information and norms, as well as prize competition among subjects. We show that information and norms lead to a sharp – more than 20% - reduction in overall energy consumption. Because participants do not pay for their energy consumption this response cannot be driven by cost saving incentives. Interestingly, when combining feedback and norms with a prize competition for achieving low energy consumption, the reduction effect – while present initially – disappears in the long run. This could suggest that external rewards reduce and even destroy intrinsic motivation to change behaviour.

Journal article

Martin R, Muuls M, Wagner U, 2016, The impact of the European Union Emissions Trade Scheme on regulated firms: what is the evidence after ten years?, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol: 10, Pages: 129-148, ISSN: 1750-6824

This article reviews the recent literature on ex post evaluation of the impacts of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on regulated firms in the industrial and power sectors. We summarize the findings from original research papers concerning three broadly defined impacts: carbon dioxide emissions, economic performance and competitiveness, and innovation. We conclude by highlighting gaps in the current literature and suggesting priorities for future research on this landmark policy. ( JEL : Q52, Q54, Q58)

Journal article

Muuls M, Muûls M, 2015, Exporters, importers and credit constraints, Journal of International Economics, Vol: 95, Pages: 333-343, ISSN: 1873-0353

This paper analyzes the interaction between credit constraints and trading behavior, decomposing trade in extensive and intensive margins. I construct a unique dataset containing firm-level trade transaction data, balance sheets and credit scores from an independent credit insurance company for Belgian manufacturing firms between 1999 and 2007. Firms are more likely to be exporting or importing if they enjoy lower credit constraints. Also, firms that have better credit rating export and import more. Importing and exporting behaviors differ in how both the level and growth of the various margins of trade are related to credit constraints in one important dimension. In the case of exports, it is the intensive and extensive margins of exports in terms of both product and destinations that are significantly associated with credit constraints whereas for imports it is the extensive margin in terms of products only.

Journal article

Martin R, Muuls M, Wagner UJ, 2015, Trading Behavior in the EU ETS, Workshop on Emissions Trading as Climate Policy Instruments - Evaluation and Prospects, Publisher: MIT PRESS, Pages: 213-238

Conference paper

Martin R, Dechezleprêtre A, Gennaioli C, Muûls Met al., 2014, Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies, Publisher: Imperial College Business School

Working paper

Martin R, Muûls M, de Preux LB, Wagner UJet al., 2014, On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, Ecological Economics, Vol: 105, Pages: 78-88, ISSN: 0921-8009

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme continues to exempt industries deemed at risk of carbon leakage from permit auctions. Carbon leakage risk is established based on the carbon intensity and trade exposure of each 4-digit industry. Using a novel measure of carbon leakage risk obtained in interviews with almost 400 managers at regulated firms in six countries, we show that carbon intensity is strongly correlated with leakage risk whereas overall trade exposure is not. In spite of this, most exemptions from auctioning are granted to industries with high trade exposure to developed and less developed countries. Our analysis suggests two ways of tightening the exemption criteria without increasing relocation risk among non-exempt industries. The first one is to exempt trade exposed industries only if they are also carbon intensive. The second one is to consider exposure to trade only with less developed countries. By modifying the carbon leakage criteria along these lines, European governments could raise additional revenue from permit auctions of up to €3 billion per year, based on a permit price of €30.

Journal article

Martin R, Muûls M, de Preux LB, Wagner UJet al., 2014, Industry compensation under relocation risk: a firm-level analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, The American Economic Review, Vol: 104, Pages: 2482-2508, ISSN: 0002-8282

When regulated firms are offered compensation to prevent them from relocating, efficiency requires that payments be distributed across firms so as to equalize marginal relocation probabilities, weighted by the damage caused by relocation. We formalize this fundamental economic logic and apply it to analyzing compensation rules proposed under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, where emission permits are allocated free of charge to carbon intensive and trade exposed industries. We show that this practice results in substantial overcompensation for given carbon leakage risk. Efficient permit allocation reduces the aggregate risk of job loss by more than half without increasing aggregate compensation.

Journal article

Muuls M, Martin R, Wagner UJ, de Preux Let al., 2014, Problematic Permitting - Editor's choice


Martin R, Muûls M, Wagner UJ, 2013, The Impact of the EU ETS on Regulated Firms: What is the Evidence After Eight Years?

Working paper

Muûls M, Petropoulou D, 2013, A swing state theory of trade protection in the Electoral College, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol: 46, Pages: 705-724

This paper analyzes trade policy determination in the Electoral College in the presence of swing voters. It determines the circumstances under which incumbent politicians have an incentive to build a reputation for protectionism, thus swaying voting decisions and improving their reelection probability. Strategic trade protection is shown to be more likely when protectionist swing voters have a lead over free trade supporters in states with relatively strong electoral competition and in states representing a larger proportion of Electoral College votes. An empirical test using a measure of industrial concentration in swing and decisive U.S. states lends support to the theoretical findings.

Journal article

Gennaioli C, Martin R, Muuls M, 2013, Using micro data to examine causal effects of climate policy, Handbook on Energy and Climate Change

Book chapter

Martin M, Muuls M, 2011, The sensitivity of UK manufacturing firms to extreme weather events


Anderson B, Leib J, Martin R, McGuigan M, Muuls M, de Preux L, Wagner Uet al., 2011, Climate change policy and business in Europe: evidence from interviewing managers

Working paper

Martin R, Muûls M, Preux LBD, Wagner UJet al., 2011, Anatomy of a paradox: Management practices, organizational structure and energy efficiency, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Pages: ---, ISSN: 0095-0696

Journal article

Martin R, Muûls M, Wagner UJ, 2010, Europe's emissions trading scheme: taxpayers versus sthe industry lobby

The European Commission plans to tighten the greenhouse gas emissions targets in the Emissions Trading System. Ralf Martin and colleagues examine the likely impact on affected businesses, and conclude that industry is exploiting concerns about competitiveness to obtain free emission permits according to criteria that are too lax.

Working paper

Martin R, Muûls M, Wagner UJ, 2010, Still time to Reclaim The European Union Emissions Trading System for the European Tax Payer

The criteria proposed by the EU Commission to identify industries that will receive free emission permits in the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not restrictive enough. Evidence from interviews with almost 800 managers in Europe shows that most of the sectors entitled to free emission permits are not facing an increased risk of closure or relocation outside of the EU as a consequence of permit auctioning. Free permit allocation is therefore just a transfer of tax payers' money to industry without any additional social benefit. We propose a simple modification of the Commission's criteria for free permit allocation which could save European tax payers at least €7 billion annually.

Working paper

Anderson B, Leib J, Martin R, McGuigan M, Muûls M, Wagner UJet al., 2010, "Climate Change Policy and Business in Europe. Evidence from Interviewing Managers"

Working paper

Nicholson E, Mace GM, Armsworth PR, Atkinson G, Buckle S, Clements T, Ewers RM, Fa JE, Gardner TA, Gibbons J, Grenyer R, Metcalfe R, Mourato S, Muuls M, Osborn D, Reuman DC, Watson C, Milner-Gulland EJet al., 2009, Priority research areas for ecosystem services in a changing world, JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 46, Pages: 1139-1144, ISSN: 0021-8901

Journal article

Muuls M, Pisu M, 2009, Imports and Exports at the Level of the Firm: Evidence from Belgium, World Economy, Vol: 32, Pages: 692-734

Journal article

Muuls M, The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity, 2008, Understanding Cross-Country Differences in Exporter Premia: Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries, Review of World Economics, Vol: 144, Pages: 596-635

Journal article

Muûls M, 2008, Exporters and credit constraints. A firm-level approach

By building a theoretical model and taking it to the data with two novel datasets, this paper analyses the interaction between credit constraints and exporting behaviour. Building a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with liquidity-constrained firms yields several predictions on the equilibrium relationships between productivity, credit constraints and exports that are then verified in the data. The main findings of the paper are that firms are more likely to be exporting if they enjoy higher productivity levels and lower credit constraints. Also, credit constraints are important in determining the extensive but not the intensive margin of trade in terms of destinations. This introduces a pecking order of trade. Finally, an exchange rate appreciation will cause existing exporters to reduce their exports, entry of credit-constrained potential exporters and exit of the least productive exporters

Working paper

Mayer T, Ottaviano G, 2007, The happy few: the internationalisation of European firms. New facts based on firm-level evidence, Publisher: Bruegel - CEPR

Working paper

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