Imperial College London

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
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Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

216 results found

Boily M-C, Baggaley RF, Wang L, Masse B, White RG, Hayes RJ, Alary Met al., 2009, Heterosexual risk of HIV-1 infection per sexual act: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies, LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 9, Pages: 118-129, ISSN: 1473-3099

Journal article

Brisson M, Van de Velde N, Boily M-C, 2009, Economic Evaluation of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in Developed Countries, PUBLIC HEALTH GENOMICS, Vol: 12, Pages: 343-351, ISSN: 1662-4246

Journal article

Deering KN, Vickerman P, Moses S, Ramesh BA, Blanchard JF, Boily M-Cet al., 2008, The impact of out-migrants and out-migration on the HIV/AIDS epidemic: a case study from south-west India, AIDS, Vol: 22, Pages: S165-S181, ISSN: 0269-9370

Journal article

Chandrasekaran P, Dallabetta G, Loo V, Mills S, Saidel T, Adhikary R, Alary M, Lowndes CM, Boily M-C, Moore Jet al., 2008, Evaluation design for large-scale HIV prevention programmes: the case of Avahan, the India AIDS initiative, AIDS, Vol: 22, Pages: S1-S15, ISSN: 0269-9370

Journal article

Boily M-C, Pickles M, Vickerman P, Buzdugan R, Isac S, Deering KN, Blanchard JF, Moses S, Lowndes CA, Ramesh BA, Demers E, Alary Met al., 2008, Using mathematical modelling to investigate the plausibility of attributing observed antenatal clinic declines to a female sex worker intervention in Karnataka state, India, AIDS, Vol: 22, Pages: S149-S164, ISSN: 0269-9370

Journal article

Boily M-C, Desai K, Masse B, Gumel Aet al., 2008, Incremental role of male circumcision on a generalised HIV epidemic through its protective effect against other sexually transmitted infections: from efficacy to effectiveness to population-level impact, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 84, Pages: II28-II34, ISSN: 1368-4973

Journal article

Desai K, Sansom SL, Ackers ML, Stewart SR, Hall HI, Hu DJ, Sanders R, Scotton CR, Soorapanth S, Boily M-C, Garnett GP, McElroy PDet al., 2008, Modeling the impact of HIV chemoprophylaxis strategies among men who have sex with men in the United States: HIV infections prevented and cost-effectiveness, AIDS, Vol: 22, Pages: 1829-1839, ISSN: 0269-9370

Journal article

Baggaley RF, White RG, Boily M-C, 2008, Systematic review of orogenital HIV-1 transmission probabilities, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 37, Pages: 1255-1265, ISSN: 1464-3685

Background The objective was to assess the risk of HIV transmission from orogenital intercourse (OI).Methods Systematic review of the literature on HIV-1 infectiousness through OI conducted according to MOOSE guidelines for reviews of observational studies. The PubMed database and bibliographies of relevant articles were searched to July 2007.Results Of the titles, 56 214 were searched from which 10 potentially appropriate studies were identified; two additional studies were identified through bibliographies and one through discussion with experts. There were 10 included studies, providing estimates of transmission probabilities per-partner (n = 5), incidence per-partner (n = 3), per-study participant (n = 3, following initially seronegative individuals whose partners are of unknown serostatus) and per-act (n = 3). Only four of 10 studies reported non-zero estimates: two per-partner estimates (20%, 95% CI: 6–51, n = 10 and a model-based estimate, 1%, range 0.85–2.3%), one per-study participant estimate (0.37%, 95% CI: 0.10–1.34%) and one per-act estimate (0.04%, 95% CI: 0.01–0.17%). Upper bounds for the 95% CI for zero estimates tended to be relatively large due to the small study sample sizes: 9.0, 12.1 and 2.8% for per-partner; 4.7, 9.6 and 1.8 per 100 person-years for incidence per-partner; 4.4% per-study participant and 0.45 and 0.02% for per-act. Given the small number of studies, a meta-analysis was not considered appropriate.Conclusions There are currently insufficient data to estimate precisely the risk from OI exposure. The low risk of transmission evident from identified studies means that more and larger studies would be required to provide sufficient evidence to derive more precise estimates.

Journal article

Dube S, Body M-C, Mugurungi O, Mahomva A, Chikhata F, Gregson Set al., 2008, Estimating vertically acquired HIV infections and the impact of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission program in Zimbabwe - Insights from decision analysis models, JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 48, Pages: 72-81, ISSN: 1525-4135

Journal article

Boily M-C, Abu-Raddad L, Desai K, Masse B, Self S, Anderson Ret al., 2008, Measuring the public-health impact of candidate HIV vaccines as part of the licensing process, LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 8, Pages: 200-207, ISSN: 1473-3099

Journal article

Phillips AE, Boily MC, Lowndes CM, Garnett GP, Gurav K, Ramesh BM, Anthony J, Watts R, Moses S, Alary Met al., 2008, Sexual identity and its contribution to MSM risk behavior in Bangaluru (Bangalore), India: the results of a two-stage cluster sampling survey., J LGBT Health Res, Vol: 4, Pages: 111-126, ISSN: 1557-4091

In India, there are categories of MSM (hijras, kothis, double-deckers, panthis and bisexuals), which are generally associated with different HIV-risk behaviors. Our objective was to quantify differences across MSM identities (n = 357) and assess the extent they conform to typecasts that prevail in policy-orientated discourse. More feminine kothis (26%) and hijras (13%) mostly reported receptive sex, and masculine panthis (15%) and bisexuals (23%) insertive anal sex. However, behavior did not always conform to expectation, with 25% and 16% of the sample reporting both insertive and receptive anal intercourse with known and unknown noncommercial partners, respectively (p < 0.000). Although behavior often complied with stereotyped role and identity, male-with-male sexual practices were fluid. Reification of these categories in an intervention context may hinder our understanding of the differential HIV risk among MSM.

Journal article

Boily M-C, Lowndes CM, Vickerman P, Kumaranayake L, Blanchard J, Moses S, Ramesh BM, Pickles M, Watts C, Washington R, Reza-Paul S, Labbe AC, Anderson RM, Deering KN, Alary Met al., 2007, Evaluating large-scale HIV prevention interventions: study design for an integrated mathematical modelling approach, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 83, Pages: 582-589, ISSN: 1368-4973

Journal article

Boily MC, Asghar Z, Garske T, Ghani AC, Poulin Ret al., 2007, Influence of selected formation rules for finite population networks with fixed macrostructures: Implications for individual-based model of infectious diseases, MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES, Vol: 14, Pages: 237-267, ISSN: 0889-8480

Journal article

Brisson M, Van de Velde N, De Wals P, Boily M-Cet al., 2007, Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection, CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, Vol: 177, Pages: 464-468, ISSN: 0820-3946

Journal article

Orroth KK, Freeman EE, Bakker R, Buve A, Glynn JR, Boily M-C, White RG, Habbema JDF, Hayes RJet al., 2007, Understanding the differences between contrasting HIV epidemics in east and west Africa: results from a simulation model of the Four Cities Study, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 83, Pages: I5-I16, ISSN: 1368-4973

Journal article

Abu-Raddad LJ, Boily M-C, Self S, Longini IMet al., 2007, Analytic insights into the population level impact of imperfect prophylactic HIV vaccines, JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 45, Pages: 454-467, ISSN: 1525-4135

Journal article

Freeman EE, Orroth KK, White RG, Glynn JR, Bakker R, Boily M-C, Habbema D, Buve A, Hayes RJet al., 2007, Proportion of new HIV infections attributable to herpes simplex 2 increases over time: simulations of the changing role of sexually transmitted infections in sub-Saharan African HIV epidemics, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 83, Pages: I17-I24, ISSN: 1368-4973

Journal article

White RG, Cooper BS, Kedhar A, Orroth KK, Biraro S, Baggaley RF, Whitworth J, Korenromp EL, Ghani A, Boily M-C, Hayes RJet al., 2007, Quantifying HIV-1 transmission due to contaminated injections, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 104, Pages: 9794-9799, ISSN: 0027-8424

Journal article

Boily MC, Asghar Z, Garske T, Ghani AC, Poulin Ret al., Influence of Selected Formation Rules for Finite Population Networks with Fixed Macrostructures: Implications for Individual-Based Model of Infectious Diseases, Mathematical Population Studies, Vol: 14, Pages: 237-267

Individual-based network models are increasingly being applied to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Research in this area has mostly focused on networks defined under a limited set of rules (e.g., preferential attachment, sexual partner formation and dissolution) that are supposed to mimic the real world but are often defined heuristically due to lack of empirical knowledge. Here, two different mechanisms (M- and λ2-rules) were used to generate a wide range of networks and to show the extent to which microstructures such as the mean component size, the size of the giant component and the cumulative nomination centrality index may vary between networks with fixed predetermined macrostructure characteristics (size, node degree distribution and mixing pattern) and influence disease transmission. It is important to carefully consider the limitations of network models and to appreciate the extent to which a given degree distribution and mixing pattern will be consistent with a wide range of underlying network microstructures.

Journal article

Van de Velde N, Brisson M, Boily MC, 2007, Modeling human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness: quantifying the impact of parameter uncertainty, American Journal Epidemioly, Vol: 165, Pages: 762-775

Journal article

Brisson M, Van de Velde N, Boily MC, 2007, The potential cost-effectiveness of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccines in Canada, Vaccine, Vol: 25, Pages: 5399-5408

Journal article

Brisson M, Van de Velde N, Boily MC, 2007, The potential cost-effectiveness of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccines in Canada, Vaccine, Vol: 25, Pages: 5399-5408

Journal article

Desai K, Boily MC, Garnett GP, M√Ęsse BR, Moses S, Bailey RCet al., 2006, The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV - insights from clinical trial simulation, Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, Vol: 3, ISSN: 1742-7622

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%-77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevent

Journal article

Williams JR, Foss AM, Vickerman P, Watts C, Ramesh BM, Reza-Paul S, Washington RG, Moses S, Blanchard J, Lowndes CM, Alary M, Boily M-Cet al., 2006, What is the achievable effectiveness of the India AIDS Initiative intervention among female sex workers under target coverage? Model projections from southern India, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 82, Pages: 372-380, ISSN: 1368-4973

Journal article

Desai K, McGreevey W, Ackers ML, Hall HI, Hu DJ, Sanders R, Sansom S, Scotton C, Soorapanth S, Stewart S, Boily MC, Garnett G, McElroy Pet al., 2006, Modeling the potential impact of HIV chemoprophylaxis strategies among men who have sex with men in the United States: HIV infections prevented and cost-effectiveness, XVI International AIDS Conference

Conference paper

Desai K, Boily MC, Masse B, Anderson RMet al., 2006, Using Transmission Dynamics Models to Validate Vaccine Efficacy Measures.Prior to Conducting HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials., Discrete Epidemiology, Editors: Abello, Cormode, Abello, Eds, Abello, Cormode, Publisher: AMS(American Mathematical Society)-, Pages: 139-162

Book chapter

Petersen ML, Boily MC, 2006, Assessing HIV resistance in developing countries: Brazil as a case study., Rev Panam Salud Publica, Vol: 19(3):

Journal article

Baggaley RF, Boily MC, White RG, Alary Met al., 2006, Risk of HIV-1 transmission for parenteral exposure and blood transfusion: a systematic review and meta-analysis, AIDS, Vol: 20, Pages: 805-812, ISSN: 0269-9370

Journal article

Vlahov D, Celentano DD, 2006, Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy for injection drug users: adherence, resistance, and death., Cad Saude Publica, Vol: 22, Pages: 705-718, ISSN: 0102-311X

Injection drug users (IDUs) continue to comprise a major risk group for HIV infection throughout the world and represent the focal population for HIV epidemics in Asia and Eastern Europe/Russia. HIV prevention programs have ranged from HIV testing and counseling, education, behavioral and network interventions, drug abuse treatment, bleach disinfection of needles, needle exchange and expanded syringe access, as well as reducing transition to injection and primary substance abuse prevention. With the advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996, dramatic clinical improvements have been seen. In addition, the treatment's impact on reducing HIV viral load (and therefore transmission by all routes) provides a stronger rationale for an expansion of the focus on prevention to emphasize early identification and treatment of HIV infected individuals. However, treatment of IDUs has many challenges including adherence, resistance and relapse to high risk behaviors, all of which impact issues of access and ultimately effectiveness of potent antiretroviral treatment. A major current challenge in addressing the HIV epidemic revolves around an appropriate approach to HIV treatment for IDUs.

Journal article

Petersen ML, Boily MC, Bastos FI, 2006, Assessing HIV resistance in developing countries: Brazil as a case study, REVISTA PANAMERICANA DE SALUD PUBLICA-PAN AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 19, Pages: 146-156, ISSN: 1020-4989

Journal article

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