Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology



+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily




LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {de, Montigny S and Boily, M and Masse, BM and Mitchell, KM and Dimitrov, D},
doi = {10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.005},
journal = {Infectious Disease Modelling},
pages = {85--96},
title = {Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART.},
url = {},
volume = {3},
year = {2018}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - BackgroundThe epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient to control the epidemic. TPR has been defined as the ratio of yearly number of new HIV infections to the yearly number of new ART initiations or to the yearly net increase in the number of people on ART. It has been used to rank the progress of treatment programmes across countries, with the objective of reaching a TPR value under 1. Our study aims to assess if TPR alone can be used as an indicator of ART success across settings by comparing the expected changes in HIV incidence and ART coverage when TPR is maintained constant over time. In particular, we focus on the effect of ART initiation timing (emphasis on ART being initiated early or late during HIV progression) on the interpretation of the TPR.MethodsWe used a dynamic model of HIV transmission in South Africa representing ART rollout leading to universal treatment in 2017. The model is calibrated to HIV incidence, HIV prevalence and ART coverage in 2012 in South Africa, and 1000 simulations are selected for the base-case scenario. To measure the effect of TPR, we simulate TPR-preserving interventions, maintaining TPR (yearly number of new ART initiations denominator) at the value observed in 2019 (between 0.65 and 1.25) for 15 years. We compare ART coverage and HIV incidence across TPR values and across strategies in which ART access is prioritized differently. In a secondary analysis, we illustrate the sensitivity of new ART initiations to ART retention, and we compare both definitions of the TPR.ResultsOur analysis shows that HIV incidence reduction is weakly correlated to TPR: the same reduction in HIV incidence (15%) can be achieved by implementing the same strategy with a wide range of TPR maintained (0.65–1.12). Assuming high retention in ART, TPR-preserving strategies prioritizing early ART
AU - de,Montigny S
AU - Boily,M
AU - Masse,BM
AU - Mitchell,KM
AU - Dimitrov,D
DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.005
EP - 96
PY - 2018///
SN - 2468-0427
SP - 85
TI - Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART.
T2 - Infectious Disease Modelling
UR -
UR -
VL - 3
ER -