Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
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Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Mitchell:2021:10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00022-9,
author = {Mitchell, KM and Dimitrov, D and Silhol, R and Geidelberg, L and Moore, M and Liu, A and Beyrer, C and Mayer, KH and Baral, S and Boily, M-C},
doi = {10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00022-9},
journal = {The Lancet HIV},
pages = {e206--e215},
title = {The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00022-9},
volume = {8},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA have reported similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access compared with before the pandemic. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has also declined. We aimed to quantify the potential effect of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among US MSM. METHODS: We used a calibrated, deterministic, compartmental HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore (MD, USA) and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV services to predict effects of reductions in sexual partners (0%, 25%, 50%), condom use (5%), HIV testing (20%), viral suppression (10%), PrEP initiations (72%), PrEP adherence (9%), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations (50%). In our main analysis, we modelled disruptions due to COVID-19 starting Jan 1, 2020, and lasting 6 months. We estimated the median change in cumulative new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths among MSM over 1 and 5 years, compared with a base case scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions. FINDINGS: A 25% reduction in sexual partners for 6 months among MSM in Baltimore, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by median 12·2% (95% credible interval 11·7 to 12·8) over 1 year and median 3·0% (2·6 to 3·4) over 5 years. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the 6-month estimated reductions in condom use, HIV testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP adherence, and ART initiations combined are predicted to increase new HIV infections by median 10·5% (5·8 to 16·5) over 1 year, and by median 3·5% (2·1 to 5·4) over 5 years. Disruptions to ART initiations and viral suppression are estimated to substantially increase HIV-related deaths (ART initiations by median 1·7% [0·8 to 3·2], viral suppression by median 9·5% [5·2 to 15·9]) over 1 year, with
AU  - Mitchell,KM
AU  - Dimitrov,D
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Moore,M
AU  - Liu,A
AU  - Beyrer,C
AU  - Mayer,KH
AU  - Baral,S
AU  - Boily,M-C
DO  - 10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00022-9
EP  - 215
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2405-4704
SP  - 206
TI  - The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study
T2  - The Lancet HIV
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00022-9
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33617783
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352301821000229
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86273
VL  - 8
ER  -
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