Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
//

Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Silhol:2021:10.1097/QAI.0000000000002743,
author = {Silhol, R and Coupland, H and Baggaley, R and Miller, L and Staadegaard, L and Gottlieb, S and Stannah, J and Turner, K and Vickerman, P and Hayes, R and Mayaud, P and Looker, K and Boily, M-C},
doi = {10.1097/QAI.0000000000002743},
journal = {JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes},
pages = {19--30},
title = {What is the burden of heterosexually-acquired HIV due to HSV-2? Global and regional model-based estimates of the proportion and number of HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002743},
volume = {88},
year = {2021}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risk. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic-transmission model.Setting: WHO regions.Methods: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15-49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over ten years (the transmission population-attributable fraction, tPAF) under three additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 only increases HIV acquisition (“conservative”); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission (“liberal”); (3) HIV/ART (antiretroviral therapy) also modifies HSV-2 transmission and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission ("fully liberal”).Results: Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval 33.4-43.2%) and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region (tPAF=42.6% (38.0-51.2%)), and lowest for the European region (tPAF=11.2% (7.9-13.8%)). The tPAF was higher among female sex-workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was ∼50% and 1.3-2.4-fold higher for the liberal/fully liberal than the conservative scenario across regions.Conclusion: HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the last decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Baggaley,R
AU  - Miller,L
AU  - Staadegaard,L
AU  - Gottlieb,S
AU  - Stannah,J
AU  - Turner,K
AU  - Vickerman,P
AU  - Hayes,R
AU  - Mayaud,P
AU  - Looker,K
AU  - Boily,M-C
DO  - 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002743
EP  - 30
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1525-4135
SP  - 19
TI  - What is the burden of heterosexually-acquired HIV due to HSV-2? Global and regional model-based estimates of the proportion and number of HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection
T2  - JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002743
UR  - https://journals.lww.com/jaids/Fulltext/2021/09010/What_Is_the_Burden_of_Heterosexually_Acquired_HIV.4.aspx
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89986
VL  - 88
ER  -
Download