Imperial College London

Professor Nigel Brandon OBE FREng

Faculty of Engineering

Dean of the Faculty of Engineering
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 8600n.brandon Website

 
 
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Location

 

2.06Faculty BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Mazur:2018:10.3390/su10030676,
author = {Mazur, CM and Offer, G and Contestabile, MSM and Brandon, N},
doi = {10.3390/su10030676},
journal = {Sustainability},
title = {Comparing the effects of vehicle automation, policy making and changed user preferences on the uptake of electric cars and emissions from transport},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030676},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they don’t address if the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future, but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial, but still insufficient. In contrast the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.
AU - Mazur,CM
AU - Offer,G
AU - Contestabile,MSM
AU - Brandon,N
DO - 10.3390/su10030676
PY - 2018///
SN - 2071-1050
TI - Comparing the effects of vehicle automation, policy making and changed user preferences on the uptake of electric cars and emissions from transport
T2 - Sustainability
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030676
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/57474
VL - 10
ER -