Imperial College London

ProfessorNicholasGrassly

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Prof of Infectious Disease & Vaccine Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3264n.grassly Website

 
 
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Location

 

G36Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Pons-Salort:2018:10.1073/pnas.1721159115,
author = {Pons-Salort, M and Oberste, MS and Pallansch, MA and Abedi, GR and Takahashi, S and Grenfell, BT and Grassly, NC},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1721159115},
journal = {PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA},
pages = {3078--3083},
title = {The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721159115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - Nonpolio enteroviruses are diverse and common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can result in a wide range of neurological and other diseases. Many serotypes circulate every year, and different serotypes predominate in different years, but the drivers of their geographical and temporal dynamics are not understood. We use national enterovirus surveillance data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1983−2013, as well as demographic and climatic data for the same period, to study the patterns and drivers of the seasonality of these infections. We find that the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases is spatially structured in the United States and similar to that observed for historical prevaccination poliomyelitis (1931−1954). We identify latitudinal gradients for the amplitude and the timing of the peak of cases, meaning that those are more regularly distributed all year-round in the south and have a more pronounced peak that arrives later toward the north. The peak is estimated to occur between July and September across the United States, and 1 month earlier than that for historical poliomyelitis. Using mixed-effects models, we find that climate, but not demography, is likely to drive the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases and that the dew point temperature alone explains ∼30% of the variation in the intensity of transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of enteroviruses, demonstrates important similarities in their circulation dynamics with polioviruses, and identifies potential drivers of their seasonality.
AU - Pons-Salort,M
AU - Oberste,MS
AU - Pallansch,MA
AU - Abedi,GR
AU - Takahashi,S
AU - Grenfell,BT
AU - Grassly,NC
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1721159115
EP - 3083
PY - 2018///
SN - 0027-8424
SP - 3078
TI - The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers
T2 - PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721159115
UR - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000427829500074&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/58679
VL - 115
ER -