ProfessorNicholasGrassly

Vaccine epidemiology

We research the epidemiology of infectious diseases and vaccines, with expertise in math modelling, statistics, clinical trial design and genomics. We are interested in how vaccine efficacy and effectiveness is measured, the impact of vaccination on disease dynamics and optimal vaccination strategies. We have over 15 years’ experience working on the epidemiology of vaccines, including those against polio, typhoid, rotavirus diarrhoea, and most recently COVID-19.

Recent publications

Cooper LV, Erbeto TB, Danzomo AA, Abhullahi HW, Boateng K, Adamu US, Shuaib F, Modjirom N, Gray EJ, Bandyopadhyay AS, Zipursky S, Okiror S O, Grassly NC, Blake IM. 2024. Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study. Lancet Infect Dis https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00688-6

Bandyopadhyay AS, Lopez Cavestany R, Blake IM, Macklin G, Cooper L, Grassly N, Nery ALMDS & Mach O. 2023. Use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine for poliovirus outbreak response., Lancet Infect Dis. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00505-4

Williams LR, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Grassly NC. 2022. Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates. Clin Infect Dis 75:e764-e773

Disease surveillance and genomics

We research novel approaches to infectious disease surveillance, including the use of serological surveys, environmental (sewage) surveillance and next-generation (nanopore) sequencing. We have developed a novel method for poliovirus detection and sequencing, which is being investigated for its potential to accelerate poliovirus detection and outbreak response. We are also investigating environmental surveillance for typhoid and other enteric pathogens, with research partners around the world including India, Malawi, Ghana and Fiji.

Recent publications

Uzzell CB, Abraham D, Rigby J, Troman CM, Nair S, Elviss N, Kathiresan L, Srinivasan R, Balaji V, Zhou NA, Meschke JS, John J, Kang G, Feasey N, Mohan VR, Grassly NC. 2023. Environmental surveillance for Salmonella Typhi and its association with typhoid fever incidence in India and Malawi. J Infect Dis https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad427

Shaw AGG, Mampuela TK, Lofiko EL, Pratt C, Troman C, Bujaki E, O'Toole A, Akello JO, Aziza AA, Lusamaki EK, Makangara JC, Akonga M, Lay Y, Nsunda B, White B, Jorgensen D, Pukuta E, Riziki Y, Rankin KEE, Rambaut A, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Muyembe J-J, Martin J, Grassly NC, Mbala-Kingebeni P. 2023. Sensitive poliovirus detection using nested PCR and nanopore sequencing: a prospective validation study. Nat Microbiol 8: 1634-1640.

Pons-Salort M, Lambert B, Kamau E, Pebody R, Harvala H, Simmonds P and Grassly NC. 2023. Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data., eLife https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.76609

John J, Bavdekar A, Rongsen-Chandola T, Dutta S, Gupta M, Kanungo S, Sinha B, Srinivasan M, Shrivastava A, Bansal A, Singh A, Koshy RM, Jinka DR, Thomas MS, Alexander AP, Thankaraj S, Ebenezer SE, Karthikeyan AS, Kumar D, Njarekkattuvalappil SK, Raju R, Sahai N, Veeraraghavan B, Murhekar MV, Mohan VR, Natarajan SK, Ramanujam K, Samuel P, Lo NC, Andrews J, Grassly NC and Kang G. 2023. Burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in India., New Engl J Med 388: 1491-1500.

Immune correlates of protection by vaccination

We investigate factors affecting the immune response to vaccination and immune correlates of protection (CoP) following vaccination. This work is focused particularly on the mucosal immune response to rotavirus and poliovirus vaccines and protection against challenge with live-attenuated vaccine virus.

Recent publications

Grassly NC, Andrews N, Cooper G, Stephens L, Waight P, Jones CE, Heath PT, Calvert A, Southern J, Martin J, Miller E. 2023. Effect of maternal immunisation with multivalent vaccines containing inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) on infant IPV immune response: A phase 4, multi-centre randomised trial. Vaccine 41: 1299-1302.

Chilengi R, Simuyandi M, Chibuye M, Chirwa M, Sukwa N, Laban N, Chisenga C, Silwamba S, Grassly N, Bosomprah Set al., 2020, A pilot study on use of live attenuated rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix (TM)) as an infection challenge model, VACCINE, Vol: 38, Pages: 7357-7362, ISSN: 0264-410X

Babji S, Manickavasagam P, Chen Y-H, Jeyavelu N, Jose NV, Praharaj I, Syed C, Kaliappan SP, John J, Giri S, Venugopal S, Kampmann B, Parker EPK, Iturriza-Gómara M, Kang G, Grassly NC, Uhlig HH, 2020, Immune predictors of oral poliovirus vaccine immunogenicity among infants in South India., NPJ Vaccines, Vol: 5