Imperial College London

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Biology & Head of Department
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
//

Location

 

Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

229 results found

Ahuka-Mundeke S, Ahmed YA, Allarangar Y, Anoko J, Archer BN, Abedi AA, Bagaria J, Barry A, Bathe NT, Belizaire MRD, Bhatia S, Bokenge T, Bruni E, Cori A, Dabire E, Diallo AM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dorji TC, Waeber AREC, Fall IS, Ferguson NM, FitzJohn RG, Tengomo GLF, Formenty PBH, Forna A, Fortin A, Garske T, Gaythorpe KAM, Gurry C, Hamblion E, Djingarey MH, Haskew C, Hugonnet SAL, Imai N, Impouma B, Kabongo G, Kabamba GK, Kalenga OI, Kibangou E, Kitenge E, Lay Y, Lee TM-H, Lubula L, Lukoya CO, Mwati JDDL, Ly O, Makiala-Mandanda S, Mamba A, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Mboussou FFR, Mbuy G, Mlanda T, Makuma VM, Mavila O, Morgan O, Mulumba AM, Mukadi-Bamuleka D, Kakoni PM, Mutombo A, Muyembe J-J, Ngamala PN, Ngom R, Ngoy G, Nouvellet P, Nsio J, Ousman KB, Peron E, Polonsky JA, Ryan MJ, Salama P, Toure A, Towner R, Tshapenda G, Van de Weerdt R, Van Kerkhove M, Wendland A, Yao NKM, Yoti Z, Yuma Eet al., 2018, Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April-May, 2018: an epidemiological study, LANCET, Vol: 392, Pages: 213-221, ISSN: 0140-6736

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Anders KL, Cutcher Z, Kleinschmidt I, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Indriani C, Ryan PA, O'Neill SL, Jewell NP, Simmons CPet al., 2018, Cluster-Randomized Test-Negative Design Trials: A Novel and Efficient Method to Assess the Efficacy of Community-Level Dengue Interventions., Am J Epidemiol, Vol: 187, Pages: 2021-2028

Cluster-randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for assessing efficacy of community-level interventions, such as vector-control strategies against dengue. We describe a novel cluster-randomized trial methodology with a test-negative design (CR-TND), which offers advantages over traditional approaches. This method uses outcome-based sampling of patients presenting with a syndrome consistent with the disease of interest, who are subsequently classified as test-positive cases or test-negative controls on the basis of diagnostic testing. We used simulations of a cluster trial to demonstrate validity of efficacy estimates under the test-negative approach. We demonstrated that, provided study arms are balanced for both test-negative and test-positive illness at baseline and that other test-negative design assumptions are met, the efficacy estimates closely match true efficacy. Analytical considerations for an odds ratio-based effect estimate arising from clustered data and potential approaches to analysis are also discussed briefly. We concluded that application of the test-negative design to certain cluster-randomized trials could increase their efficiency and ease of implementation.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Campbell F, Strang C, Ferguson N, Cori A, Jombart Tet al., 2018, When are pathogen genome sequences informative of transmission events?, PLOS PATHOGENS, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1553-7366

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Donnelly CA, Laydon DJ, Small R, Jackson N, Coudeville L, Ferguson NMet al., 2018, Refined efficacy estimates of the Sanofi Pasteur dengue vaccine CYD-TDV using machine learning., Nat Commun, Vol: 9

CYD-TDV is the first licensed dengue vaccine for individuals 9-45 (or 60) years of age. Using 12% of the subjects enroled in phase-2b and phase-3 trials for which baseline serostatus was measured, the vaccine-induced protection against virologically confirmed dengue during active surveillance (0-25 months) was found to vary with prior exposure to dengue. Because age and dengue exposure are highly correlated in endemic settings, refined insight into how efficacy varies by serostatus and age is essential to understand the increased risk of hospitalisation observed among vaccinated individuals during the long-term follow-up and to develop safe and effective vaccination strategies. Here we apply machine learning to impute the baseline serostatus for subjects with post-dose 3 titres but missing baseline serostatus. We find evidence for age dependence in efficacy independent of serostatus and estimate that among 9-16 year olds, CYD-TDV is protective against serotypes 1, 3 and 4 regardless of baseline serostatus.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NMet al., 2018, Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling, TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY, Vol: 34, Pages: 102-113, ISSN: 1471-4922

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, 2018, Challenges and opportunities in controlling mosquito-borne infections, NATURE, Vol: 559, Pages: 490-497, ISSN: 0028-0836

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Hamlet A, Jean K, Perea W, Yactayo S, Biey J, Van Kerkhove M, Ferguson N, Garske Tet al., 2018, The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Marshall JM, Wu SL, Sanchez HMC, Kiware SS, Ndhlovu M, Ouedraogo AL, Toure MB, Sturrock HJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NMet al., 2018, Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa, SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2045-2322

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Miglianico M, Eldering M, Slater H, Ferguson N, Ambrose P, Lees RS, Koolen KMJ, Pruzinova K, Jancarova M, Volf P, Koenraadt CJM, Duerr H-P, Trevitt G, Yang B, Chatterjee AK, Wisler J, Sturm A, Bousema T, Sauerwein RW, Schultz PG, Tremblay MS, Dechering KJet al., 2018, Repurposing isoxazoline veterinary drugs for control of vector-borne human diseases, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 115, Pages: E6920-E6926, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2018, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 22, Pages: 29-35, ISSN: 1755-4365

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Pople D, 2018, The effect of social networks on the participation by those with parental responsibility in the baby immunisation programme in the UK

THESIS DISSERTATION

Cattarino L, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings D, Imai N, Ferguson Net al., 2017, MAPPING GLOBAL VARIATION IN DENGUE TRANSMISSION INTENSITY AND ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CONTROL STRATEGIES, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 193-193, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, EUROSURVEILLANCE, Vol: 22, Pages: 10-13, ISSN: 1560-7917

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Hamlet A, Jean K, Ferguson N, Van Kerkhove M, Yactayo S, Perea W, Biey J, Sall A, Garske Tet al., 2017, POLICI: AN ONLINE TOOL FOR VISUALIZATION OF POPULATION-LEVEL YELLOW FEVER IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE IN AFRICA, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 257-257, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Imai N, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Hinsley W, Cummings DA, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, MAPPING THE GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF DENGUE SEROPREVALENCE AND TRANSMISSION INTENSITY, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 193-193, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Katzelnick LC, Harris E, Participants in the Summit on Dengue Immune Correlates of Protection, 2017, Immune correlates of protection for dengue: State of the art and research agenda., Pages: 4659-4669

Dengue viruses (DENV1-4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses estimated to cause up to ∼400 million infections and ∼100 million dengue cases each year. Factors that contribute to protection from and risk of dengue and severe dengue disease have been studied extensively but are still not fully understood. Results from Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials have recently become available for one vaccine candidate, now licensed for use in several countries, and more Phase 2 and 3 studies of additional vaccine candidates are ongoing, making these issues all the more urgent and timely. At the "Summit on Dengue Immune Correlates of Protection", held in Annecy, France, on March 8-9, 2016, dengue experts from diverse fields came together to discuss the current understanding of the immune response to and protection from DENV infection and disease, identify key unanswered questions, discuss data on immune correlates and plans for comparison of results across assays/consortia, and propose a research agenda for investigation of dengue immune correlates, all in the context of both natural infection studies and vaccine trials.

CONFERENCE PAPER

McCormack C, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, 2017, THE EFFECTS OF METAPOPULATION STRUCTURE ON FINE-SCALE MOSQUITO POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE AND MALARIA, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 191-191, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Clapham HE, Than HQ, Duong THK, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basanez M-G, Nouvellet P, Lessler Jet al., 2016, Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 353-354, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DATet al., 2016, Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 1033-1036, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Flasche S, Jit M, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DAT, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, Espana G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CAB, Reiner RC, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson Net al., 2016, The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Fumanellil L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez Set al., 2016, Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.

Request URL: http://wlsprd.imperial.ac.uk:80/respub/WEB-INF/jsp/search-html.jsp Request URI: /respub/WEB-INF/jsp/search-html.jsp Query String: respub-action=search.html&id=00308881&limit=30&person=true