Imperial College London

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Biology & Head of Department
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

203 results found

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

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Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

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Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2017, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence., Epidemics

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen "future" simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes - other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals - that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence.

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Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

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Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

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Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

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Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

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Clapham HE, Than HQ, Duong THK, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

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Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basanez M-G, Nouvellet P, Lessler Jet al., 2016, Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 353-354, ISSN: 0036-8075

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Ferguson NM, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DATet al., 2016, Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 1033-1036, ISSN: 0036-8075

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Flasche S, Jit M, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DAT, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, Espana G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CAB, Reiner RC, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson Net al., 2016, The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

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Fumanellil L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez Set al., 2016, Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

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Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske Tet al., 2016, A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination., Am J Trop Med Hyg, Vol: 95, Pages: 1435-1439

Despite previous evidence of high level of efficacy, no synthetic metric of yellow fever (YF) vaccine efficacy is currently available. Based on the studies identified in a recent systematic review, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis of the serological response associated with YF vaccination. Eleven studies conducted between 1965 and 2011 representing 4,868 individual observations were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimate of serological response was 97.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82.9-99.7%). There was evidence of between-study heterogeneity (I(2) = 89.1%), but this heterogeneity did not appear to be related to study size, study design, or seroconversion measurement or definition. Pooled estimates were significantly higher (P < 0.0001) among studies conducted in nonendemic settings (98.9%, 95% CI = 98.2-99.4%) than among those conducted in endemic settings (94.2%, 95% CI = 83.8-98.1%). These results provide background information against which to evaluate the efficacy of fractional doses of YF vaccine that may be used in outbreak situations.

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Karkey A, Jombart T, Walker AW, Thompson CN, Torres A, Dongol S, Nga TVT, Duy PT, Dung TTN, Phat VV, Singer AC, Parkhill J, Thwaites G, Basnyat B, Ferguson N, Baker Set al., 2016, The Ecological Dynamics of Fecal Contamination and Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in Municipal Kathmandu Drinking Water, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

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Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJE, Rodriguez-Barraquer Iet al., 2016, Assessing the global threat from Zika virus, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, ISSN: 0036-8075

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Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Hakeem R, Jombart T, Aguas R, Al-Barrak A, Cummings DATet al., 2016, Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 183, Pages: 657-663, ISSN: 0002-9262

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Majeed A, Hansell A, Saxena S, Millett C, Ward H, Harris M, Hayhoe B, Car J, Easton G, Donnelly CA, Perneczky R, Jarvelin M-R, Ezzati M, Rawaf S, Vineis P, Ferguson N, Riboli Eet al., 2016, How would a decision to leave the European Union affect medical research and health in the United Kingdom?, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF MEDICINE, Vol: 109, Pages: 216-218, ISSN: 0141-0768

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Marshall JM, Toure M, Ouedraogo AL, Ndhlovu M, Kiware SS, Rezai A, Nkhama E, Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Doumbia S, Govella NJ, Ferguson NM, Ghani ACet al., 2016, Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries, MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1475-2875

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Metcalf CJE, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BTet al., 2016, Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease, LANCET, Vol: 388, Pages: 728-730, ISSN: 0140-6736

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Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2016, A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A, BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1471-2334

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Pothin E, Ferguson NM, Drakeley CJ, Ghani ACet al., 2016, Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models, MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1475-2875

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Walker PGT, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Ghani ACet al., 2016, Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 4, Pages: E474-E484, ISSN: 2214-109X

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Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2015, Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 372, Pages: 1274-1277, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Aguas R, Donnelly CA, Guy B, Coudeville L, Jackson N, Saville M, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, Modelling the immunological response to a tetravalent dengue vaccine from multiple phase-2 trials in Latin America and South East Asia., Vaccine, Vol: 33, Pages: 3746-3751, ISSN: 1873-2518

BACKGROUND: The most advanced dengue vaccine candidate is a live-attenuated recombinant vaccine containing the four dengue viruses on the yellow fever vaccine backbone (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. Several analyses have been published on the safety and immunogenicity of the CYD-TDV vaccine from single trials but none modelled the heterogeneity observed in the antibody responses elicited by the vaccine. METHODS: We analyse the immunogenicity data collected in five phase-2 trials of the CYD-TDV vaccine. We provide a descriptive analysis of the aggregated datasets and fit the observed post-vaccination PRNT50 titres against the four dengue (DENV) serotypes using multivariate regression models. RESULTS: We find that the responses to CYD-TDV are principally predicted by the baseline immunological status against DENV, but the trial is also a significant predictor. We find that the CYD-TDV vaccine generates similar titres against all serotypes following the third dose, though DENV4 is immunodominant after the first dose. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to a better understanding of the immunological responses elicited by CYD-TDV. The recent availability of phase-3 data is a unique opportunity to further investigate the immunogenicity and efficacy of the CYD-TDV vaccine, especially in subjects with different levels of pre-existing immunity against DENV. Modelling multiple immunological outcomes with a single multivariate model offers advantages over traditional approaches, capturing correlations between response variables, and the statistical method adopted in this study can be applied to a variety of infections with interacting strains.

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Ferguson NM, Duong THK, Clapham H, Aguas R, Vu TT, Tran NBC, Popovici J, Ryan PA, O'Neill SL, McGraw EA, Vo TL, Le TD, Nguyen HL, Nguyen VVC, Wills B, Simmons CPet al., 2015, Modeling the impact on virus transmission of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus infection of Aedes aegypti, SCIENCE TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE, Vol: 7, ISSN: 1946-6234

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Gambhir M, Clark TA, Cauchemez S, Tartof SY, Swerdlow L, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, A Change in Vaccine Efficacy and Duration of Protection Explains Recent Rises in Pertussis Incidence in the United States, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1553-734X

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Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

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Lambrechts L, Ferguson NM, Harris E, Holmes EC, McGraw EA, O'Neill SL, Ooi EE, Ritchie SA, Ryan PA, Scott TW, Simmons CP, Weaver SCet al., 2015, Assessing the epidemiological effect of wolbachia for dengue control, LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 15, Pages: 862-866, ISSN: 1473-3099

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Lipsitch M, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Blake IM, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Garske T, Mills HL, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Hernan MAet al., 2015, Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1935-2735

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