Imperial College London

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Biology & Head of Department
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

220 results found

Campbell F, Strang C, Ferguson N, Cori A, Jombart Tet al., 2018, When are pathogen genome sequences informative of transmission events?, PLOS PATHOGENS, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1553-7366

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, Ferguson NMet al., 2018, Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling, TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY, Vol: 34, Pages: 102-113, ISSN: 1471-4922

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Hamlet A, Jean K, Perea W, Yactayo S, Biey J, Van Kerkhove M, Ferguson N, Garske Tet al., 2018, The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa., PLoS Negl Trop Dis, Vol: 12

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of i

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2018, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 22, Pages: 29-35, ISSN: 1755-4365

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Pople D, 2018, The effect of social networks on the participation by those with parental responsibility in the baby immunisation programme in the UK

THESIS DISSERTATION

Cattarino L, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings D, Imai N, Ferguson Net al., 2017, MAPPING GLOBAL VARIATION IN DENGUE TRANSMISSION INTENSITY AND ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CONTROL STRATEGIES, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 193-193, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Jombart T, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Riley S, Van Kerkhove MD, Mills HL, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Dorigatti I, Hamlet A, Aguas R, Cattarino L, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Garske T, Imai N, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, EUROSURVEILLANCE, Vol: 22, Pages: 10-13, ISSN: 1560-7917

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Dye C, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CAet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0962-8436

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Hamlet A, Jean K, Ferguson N, Van Kerkhove M, Yactayo S, Perea W, Biey J, Sall A, Garske Tet al., 2017, POLICI: AN ONLINE TOOL FOR VISUALIZATION OF POPULATION-LEVEL YELLOW FEVER IMMUNIZATION COVERAGE IN AFRICA, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 257-257, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Imai N, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Hinsley W, Cummings DA, Ferguson NMet al., 2017, MAPPING THE GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF DENGUE SEROPREVALENCE AND TRANSMISSION INTENSITY, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 193-193, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

McCormack C, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, 2017, THE EFFECTS OF METAPOPULATION STRUCTURE ON FINE-SCALE MOSQUITO POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE AND MALARIA, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 191-191, ISSN: 0002-9637

CONFERENCE PAPER

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou J-M, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 0028-4793

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DAT, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 0027-8424

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Clapham HE, Than HQ, Duong THK, Dorigatti I, Simmons CP, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Modelling Virus and Antibody Dynamics during Dengue Virus Infection Suggests a Role for Antibody in Virus Clearance, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, Nedjati-Gilani GL, Donnelly CA, Basanez M-G, Nouvellet P, Lessler Jet al., 2016, Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 353-354, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Ferguson NM, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Dorigatti I, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Laydon DJ, Cummings DATet al., 2016, Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, Pages: 1033-1036, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Flasche S, Jit M, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DAT, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, Espana G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CAB, Reiner RC, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson Net al., 2016, The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1676

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Fumanellil L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez Set al., 2016, Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics, PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1553-734X

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Jean K, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Garske Tet al., 2016, A Meta-Analysis of Serological Response Associated with Yellow Fever Vaccination, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 95, Pages: 1435-1439

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Karkey A, Jombart T, Walker AW, Thompson CN, Torres A, Dongol S, Nga TVT, Duy PT, Dung TTN, Phat VV, Singer AC, Parkhill J, Thwaites G, Basnyat B, Ferguson N, Baker Set al., 2016, The Ecological Dynamics of Fecal Contamination and Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in Municipal Kathmandu Drinking Water, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJE, Rodriguez-Barraquer Iet al., 2016, Assessing the global threat from Zika virus, SCIENCE, Vol: 353, ISSN: 0036-8075

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Lessler J, Salje H, Van Kerkhove MD, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Hakeem R, Jombart T, Aguas R, Al-Barrak A, Cummings DATet al., 2016, Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 183, Pages: 657-663, ISSN: 0002-9262

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Majeed A, Hansell A, Saxena S, Millett C, Ward H, Harris M, Hayhoe B, Car J, Easton G, Donnelly CA, Perneczky R, Jarvelin M-R, Ezzati M, Rawaf S, Vineis P, Ferguson N, Riboli Eet al., 2016, How would a decision to leave the European Union affect medical research and health in the United Kingdom?, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF MEDICINE, Vol: 109, Pages: 216-218, ISSN: 0141-0768

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Marshall JM, Toure M, Ouedraogo AL, Ndhlovu M, Kiware SS, Rezai A, Nkhama E, Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Doumbia S, Govella NJ, Ferguson NM, Ghani ACet al., 2016, Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries, MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1475-2875

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Metcalf CJE, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BTet al., 2016, Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease, LANCET, Vol: 388, Pages: 728-730, ISSN: 0140-6736

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Pinsent A, Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2016, A systematic review of reported reassortant viral lineages of influenza A, BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1471-2334

JOURNAL ARTICLE

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