Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Director of the School of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

508School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Jean:2020:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304,
author = {Jean, K and Hamlet, A and Benzler, J and Cibrelus, L and Gaythorpe, KAM and Sall, A and Ferguson, NM and Garske, T},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304},
journal = {PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
pages = {1--16},
title = {Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundTo counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy.Methods and findingsWe developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed in 11 countries. We calculated local numbers of YF infections, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost based on estimated transmission intensity while accounting for time-varying vaccination coverage. We estimated vaccine demand and impact of future preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs) according to various vaccination scenarios.Vaccination activities conducted in Africa between 2005 and 2017 were estimated to prevent from 3.3 (95% CI 1.2–7.7) to 6.1 (95% CI 2.4–13.2) millions of deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, representing extreme scenarios of none or maximal herd effects, respectively. By prioritizing provinces based on the risk of urban YF transmission in future PMVCs, an average of 37.7 million annual doses for PMVCs over eight years would avert an estimated 9,900,000 (95% CI 7,000,000–13,400,000) infections and 480,000 (180,000–1,140,000) deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, corresponding to 1.7 (0.7–4.1) deaths averted per 1,000 vaccine doses.ConclusionsBy estimating YF burden and vaccine impact over a range of spatial and temporal scales, while accounting for the specificity of urban transmission, our model can be used to inform th
AU  - Jean,K
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Benzler,J
AU  - Cibrelus,L
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Sall,A
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Garske,T
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304
EP  - 16
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1935-2727
SP  - 1
TI  - Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling
T2  - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008304
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79109
VL  - 14
ER  -
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